Employment effects of energy conservation investments in EC countries. Report

Directorate-General For Energy

Informations

• Publié par: DIRECTORATE-GENERAL-FOR-ENERGY
• Nombre de lectures: 41
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Commission of the European Communities
energy
Employment effects of
energy conservation investments
in EC countries Commission of the European Communities
energy
Employment effects of
energy conservation investments
in EC countries
O. HOHMEYER (project leader)
E. JOCHEM
F. GARNREITER
W. MANNSBART
Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)
Breslauer Straße 48
D-7500 Karlsruhe 1
Contract No XVII/AR/83/289
.;?£$$ Directorate-General
Energy
1985 EUR 10199 EN Published by the
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Directorate­General
Information Market and Innovation
Bâtiment Jean Monnet
LUXEMBOURG
LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the Commission of the European Communities nor any person acting on
behalf of the n is responsible for the use which might be made of the
following information
Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication
Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1985
ISBN 92­825­5474­0 Catalogue number:
©ECSC­EEC­EAEC, Brussels ■ Luxembourg, 1985
Printed in Luxembourg Preface
Since 1973 the primary energy demand has fallen by 7 % in the Community,
whereas the Gross Domestic Product has increased by 14 %. Due to the in­
creased indigenous energy production in the Community, net energy imports,
as compared to primary energy demand, have fallen from 64 % in 1973 to
42 % in 1983. Highery efficiency has reduced the burden of exploded
energy costs, and decreased energy import figures have reduced the risk of y supply dependencies.
This success, and the present period of stagnating or even short-term
falling energy price levels, however, should not detract attention from
further economic possibilities of improving energy efficiency. Complacency
now would stop the trend towards diminishingy costs.
A laissez-faire energy demand policy in the Member States now would be in­
appropriate and economically unwise. It would not only jeopardize the
Community's energy objectives for 1990, but also disregard the chance to
alleviate major problems the EC Member States face today:
- increasing unemployment which has built up to 12 Mill, registered peo­
ple, and which will be a continuing burden for all Member States in the
next ten years,
increasing damage to vegetation, materials, buildings, and human health
because of the high air pollution, 90 % of which is caused by burning
fossil fuels.
With the beneficial impact of a more rational use of energy to the envir­
onment being guite obvious, there is a lack of analytical information on
the economic impact of energy conservation investments. Particularly im­
portant is the question of employment effects. Here, the analysis has to
include the intermediate and net economic effects to avoid misleading
answers.
It is hoped that this study will contribute to improving the understanding
of the beneficial economic impact of energy conservation investments, par­
ticularly the potential of a modest contribution to alleviate the unem­
ployment problem by creating some 500 000 jobs and to support economic
growth. This economic potential, however, requires an enforced and long-
term oriented energy demand policy in all Member States.
Acknowledgements
The findings on energy saving potentials and their economic effects in the
four Member States studied could not have been presented in this report
without the ready cooperation and conscientious work of many colleagues in
various institutes and firms. They provided the technological and economic
data necessary to make the projections and extensive calculations. Those
who deserve particular mention in this regard are A. Atkinson, Orchard
Partners, London; B. Ullmann, B.I.P.E., Bureau d'Informations et de
Prévisions Economiques, Paris; P. E. Grohnheit, Energy Systems Group, Ris^
National Laboratory, Roskilde. For assistance in the clerical work involved in processing the manuscript
we are indebted to S. Gutsche, C. Raber, and M. Steiger. The authors'
gratitude for the typing and retyping of their drafts with endless pa­
tience and the effective performance of these indispensable services are
hereby recorded. We would like to thank L. Hanke who helped to review the
English manuscript.
Prof. Dr. Helmar Krupp
Director
— IV Page
1. Summary 1
2. Objectives and scope of the study 10
3. Possible paths of implementation of the energy technologies
under study 1 5
3.1 Methodology employed and basic assumptions applicable to all
countries included5
3.2 The situation in, and the projections for, Denmark 17
3.3 Then in, and thes for, France 23
3.4 The situation in, and the projections for, the United Kingdom 2
3.5 Then in, and thes for, the Federal Republic
of Germany 32
3.6 Comparison of the national estimates 39
4. Economic effects of energy conservation and the use of re­
newable energy sources 44
4.1 The methodology employed
4.2 Economic effects by technology9
4.2.1 Insulation 51
4.2.2 District heating
4.2.3 Heat exchangers6
4.2.4 Gas engine driven heat pumps
4.2.5 Solar hot-water systems 60
4.2.6 Biogas plants in agriculture2
4.2.7 Summary of the economic effects4
4.3 The development of the employment effects over time 75
4.4 Tentative extrapolation of the findings to all EC countries 8
4.4.1 Energy savings and their relation to the reference scenario
of the EC 8
4.4.2 Employment effects8
5. Evaluation of the results and recommendations 89
References 93
— V List of tables and figures Page
Figure 1.1 Net additional primary energy savings by the six
technologies studied in all EC countries in the
year 2000 4
F igure 1.2 Average additional yearly net employment effects
of the six technologies studied in EC 10 by the
year 2000 (for the assumed future productivities). 6
Distribution of the additional net employment Figure 1.3
effects over time in 1975 and in assumed future
productivities (includes only the segments of the
six technologies in the four countries which have
been included in the study) 7
Energy technologies and their application in the Table 2.1
respective countries 1 3
Figure 3.1 Differences of the projected scenarios 16
Table 3.1 Basic assumptions for all estimates7
Table 3.2 Estimated additional potential of district heating
under CHP (10 - 100 MWel) in Denmark by the
year 2000 18
Figure 3.2 Difference between the base case and ,the maximum
projections9
Table 3.3 Estimated additional potential of insulation in
Denmark by the year 2000 2 0
Table 3.4 Estimated additional potential of heat exchangers
for heat recovery in Denmark by the year 2000 21
Table 3.5 Estimated additional potential of solar hot-water
systems in Denmark by the year 2000 2 2
Table 3.6 Estimated additional potential of biogas plants
in· Denmark by the year 2000 23
Table 3.7 Estimated additional potential of district heating
in France by the year 20004
Table 3.8 Estimated additional potential of insulation in
France by the year 20005
Table 3.9 Estimated additional potential of heat exchangers
for heat recovery in France by the year 2000 2 5
Estimated additional potential of solar hot-water Table 3.10
systems in France by the year 2000 26
VI -Page
Estimated additional potential of biogas plants Table 3.11 :
in France by the year 2000 27
Table 3.12 : Estimated additional potential of district heating
under CHP in the U.K. by the year 2000 28
Table 3.13 : Estimated additional potential of insulation in
the U.K. by the year 2000 29
Table 3.14 Estimated additional potential of heat exchangers
for heat recovery in the U.K. by the year 2000 29
Table 3.15 : Estimated additional potential of large gas
engine driven heat pumps in the U.K. by the
year 2000 30
Table 3.16 Estimated additional potential of solar hot-water
systems in the U.K. by the year 2000 31
Table 3.17 Estimated additional potential of biogas plants
in the U.K. by the year 2000 32
Table 3.18 Estimated additional potential of district heating
under CHP (30 - 50 MWel) in the FRG by the
year 2000 34
Estimated additional potential of insulation in Table 3.19
the FRG by the year 2000 35
Table 3.20 : Estimated additional potential of heat exchangers
for heat recovery in the FRG by the year 2000 36
Estimated additional potential of large gas Table 3.21 :
engine driven heat pumps in the FRG by the year
2000 37
Table 3.22 : Estimated additional potential of solar hot-water
systems in the FRG by the year 2000 38
Estimated additional potential of biogas plants Table 3.23 :
in the FRG by the year 2000 39
Basic figures on the four countries under study 40 Table 3.24 :
Comparison of the countries under study (delta-
scenario). District heating, insulation, and
Table 3.25 : heat exchangers 41
Comparison of the countries under study (delta-
scenario). Gas heat pumps, solar-hot water
Table 3.26 :
systems, and biogas plants2
The structure of the net-effect approach 45