European energy supply studies using the EFOM 12-D model

Directorate-General For Translation European Commission

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Energy research
Energy policy

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• Publié par: EUROPEAN-COMMISSION
• Nombre de lectures: 8
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 8 Mo

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Commission of the European Communities
energy
EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY STUDIES
USING THE EFOM 12D MODEL
Report
EUR 8543 EN
Blow-up from microfiche original Commission of the European Communities
energy
EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY STUDIES
USING THE EFOM 12D MODEL
J.S. CLIFFORD, M. A. LAUGHTON, T.S. McROBERTS,
P.V. SLEE
QMC Industrial Research Ltd
229 Mile End Road
London E1 4AA (U.K.)
Contract No. EM2/034/81/UK
FINAL REPORT
Research financed
by the Commission of the European Communities
within the frame of the energy R and D programme
- Energy Systems Analysis and Strategy Studies -
Directorate-General for Science, Research, and Development
1983 EUR 8543 EN Published by the
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Directorate-General
Information Market and Innovation
Bâtiment Jean Monnet
LUXEMBOURG
LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the Commission of the European Communities nor any person
acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might
be made of the following information
<ζ) ECSC­EEG­EAEC Brussels · Luxembourg 1983 III
PREFACE
The Energy Research and Development Programme of the European Communities,
approved by the Council on 11th September 1979 is one of the actions with
which the Community replied to the challenge arising from the energy price
crisis. This four-year programme extending from 1 July 1979 until 30 June
1983 covers the following sub-programmes ("objectives") :
- Energy Conservation
- Production and Utilization of Hydrogen
- Solar Energy
- Geothermal Energy
- Energy Systems Analysis and Strategy Studies
The programme is implemented by means of so-called "indirect actions",
i.e. by concluding research contracts, on a cost-sharing basis, between
the Commission of the European Communities and research laboratories, industrial
firms, universities or other third parties in the Member Countries.
The results of the research projects carried out in this programme become
available in the final reports delivered at the end of each contract, and
diffused by the Services of the European Communities in the form of the
present report. This report results from a contract of the sub-programme
on "Energy Systems Analysis and Strategy Studies".
Further diffusion of the knowledge gathered through the implementation of the
programme is obtained by means of :
- status seminars in which the content and the progress of the work is described
and discussed,
- symposia and conferences (either organized by the Commission or by third
parties), in which work of EC contractors is presented in "free competition"
with scientific papers submitted from all over the world.
- a yearly status report of the whole Energy Programme.
All the reports published directly by the Commission are generally quoted with
a short summary in "EURO-ABSTRACTS" and can be obtained in full text or micro­
fiche by everyone interested from the
OFFICE OF OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Boite Postale 1003,
LUXEMBOURG
Further information on the whole Energy Programme or on any one of the sub-
programmes can be obtained from the
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development
200, rue de la Loi,
B-1049 BRUSSELS Vf
POLYNATIONAL MODELS - STATE OF THE ART
The methodology of model tuning and solution interpretation
has been developed sufficiently to establish that first
results could be obtained from the input data, which have been
derived principally by aggregation of data from other more
detailed national energy system representations. The results of
these preliminary tests are only indicative. There is at this
stage a need for further validation of the data in greater
depth. This work is continuing. CONTENTS
Page No.
SUMMARY
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
1. INTRODUCTION
2. MODEL DESCRIPTION
3. DATA DESCRIPTION 30
4. MONONATIONAL RUNS 58
5. POLYNATIONAL RUNS 67
6. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 108
7. REFERENCES 109
APPENDICES
Note: Relevant tables and figures are to be found at the end of each section. VII
SUMMARY REPORT - CONTRACT NO: EM2 034 81 UK - MAY 1982
INTRODUCTION
This report describes the progress made todate with the polynational
polyperiod (PNPP) model (also referred to as the 12D model). Earlier
reports have dealt with details of model structure, listed the
coding conventions used in placing the energy supply and utilisation
subsystems in the GENERIC modelling framework and discussed the
preliminary results obtained.
Here the essential aspects of the model structure are reviewed,
with particular reference to recent developments, and the results
of case studies are presented.
Cost and capacity 'data were obtained from the mononational 12c data
bases and demand data from the same source.
Herpetological constraints were imposed on total cash flow to energy
supply activities to ensure that each subset of national results
in the multinational study approximated reasonably to the individually
determined MN5P, or single nation model, results.
The methodology of model tuning and solution interpretation has been
developed sufficiently to establish that usable results can be
obtained from the input data, which have been derived principally
by aggregation of data from other more detailed national energy
system representations. The details of the solutions require careful
interpretation, and there is at this stage a need for validation of
the data in greater depth. This work is continuing. ▼ΠΙ
MODEL RUNS
Several PNPP runs have been made using the QMC Generic BUILDER
matrix generator software and the ICL LP Package LP 2900, both
of which are installed on the Commission's 2900 series computer
complex in Luxembourg and controlled from the remote station in
Brussels.
Initial commissioning of the system was carried out using data from
an intermediate PNPP model assembled on the QMC system and
transferred via magnetic tape.
As soon as mononational runs had been completed for the four larger
countries, a 4N5P model was run with 1% herpetological constraints
to test the system. The first 4N5P run was made with no s
on imports of energy products from the external world. The
inevitable result was an unrealistic dominance of energy supply
by cheap coal imports. This led to the introduction of trade
control districts to preserve in the polynational model the individual
mononational constraints on imports and exports. These external
trade subsystems provide the basis for controlling inter-country
flows and also the possibility of associating capacity and investment
parameters with energy transport links.
The 4N5P model provided an advanced starting basis for the 8N5P
model which was launched with 1% herpetological constraints
immediately after MNPP results were obtained for the four models
of the smaller community countries. The '1%' PNPP model provided
a starting basis for the '5%' model, and the latter for the
subsequent '10%' model.
The objective of this exercise was to minimise total cost which is
analysed automatically into three components:
1. Imports from external sources;
2. Supply subsystem costs;