ODER-LISFLOOD. Assessment of the effects of engineering, land use and climate scenarios on flood risk in the Oder catchment

Joint Research Centre European Commission

Description

Earth sciences research
Target audience: Scientific

Sujets

• Oceanography
• Simulation

Informations

• Publié par: JOINT-RESEARCH-CENTRE-EUROPEAN-COMMISSION
• Nombre de lectures: 21
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 9 Mo

Extrait

Natural
ASA Hazards
Environmenfand Project Sutrainabiliry
ODER-LISFLOOD
Assessment of the effects of engineering, land use
and climate scenarios on flood risk
in the upper-Oder catchment
Ad De Roo, Guido Schmuck
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
2002 EUR 20276 EN Natural
Hazards
IníHhjKs for
Environment and
Suftainobiliry Project
ODER-LISFLOOD
Assessment of the effects of engineering, land use
and climate scenarios on flood risk
in the upper-Oder catchment
Ad De Roo, Guido Schmuck
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
2002 EUR 20276 EN Mission:
The mission of the Institute for Evironment and Sustainability is to provide scientific and
technical support to EU strategies for the protection of the environment and sustainable
development. Employing an integrated approach to the investigation of air, water and soil
contaminants, its goals are sustainable management of water resources, protection and
maintenance of drinking waters, good functioning of aquatic ecosystems, and good ecological
quality of surface waters.
LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the European Commission nor any person
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It can be accessed through the Europa server
(http : //europa. eu. int)
EUR 20276 EN
© European Communities, 2002
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in Italy ODER-LISFLOOD scenarios De Roo & Schmuck
ODER-LISFLOOD
Assessment of the effects of engineering, land use
and climate scenarios on flood risk
in the upper-Oder catchment
Ad De Roo, Guido Schmuck
May 2002
Institute for Environment and Sustainabil'ty
Joint Research Centre
European Commission
2002 EUR 20276 EN 6 ODER-LISFLOOD scenarios De Roo & Schmuck
Ad de Roo & Guido Schmuck
Ispra, May 2002
Contacts: Dr. A.P.J, de Roo & Dr. G. Schmuck
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
LM Unit, Natural Hazards Project
Via E. Fermi, TP261, 21020 Ispra (Va), Italy
Tel: ++39-0332-786240
Fax: ++39-0332-785500
Email: [e-mail] m ODER-LISFLOOD scenarios De Roo & Schmuck
CONTENTS
Executive summary ν
Introduction 1
1. The LISFLOOD modelling system 2
2. Validation 7
3. Scenarios 14
3.1 Scenario Building Stones
3.2 Scenarios for calculation with LISFLOOD 16
3.3 Scenario reporting8
3.4 Scenario results9
Reference scenarios 20
IKSO scenarios3
Reservoir scenarios 3
Historic land use scenarios 4
Land use changes5
Brandenburg scenarios 5
Climate changes 62
Combination scenarios 71
Conclusions 7
References6
Appendices8
Executive Summary (D) ey (P)
Executive Summary (Cz) W ODER-LISFLOOD scenarios De Roo & Schmuck
Executive Summary
Background
In July 1997, an extreme flood hit the Oder and its tributary rivers, resulting in 114
deaths, 195.500 people evacuated and approximately 4600 Million Euros damage.
Following the extreme flood, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
started a model simulation study called ODER-LISFLOOD. This study is the EU
contribution to the 'Workgroup Floods' within the framework of the International
Commission for the Protection of the Oder river (IKSO), which was established after the
flood and officially ratified in April 1999. Since its official start in January 1999, an
international multi-disciplinary collaboration is brought together, consisting of:
• European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), IES-LM Unit, Ispra, Italy
• Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute (CHMI), Prague, Czech Republic
• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Wroclaw, Poland
• Regional Water Development Authority (RWDA), Wroclaw, Poland
• Landesumweltamt Brandenburg (LUAB), Potsdam, Germany
• Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt and Geologie (SLUG), Dresden, Germany
The Oder-LISFLOOD project
The most important objectives of the project are:
• to investigate the effects of land-use change on flood risk (historic land use changes
and future developments)
• to assess the effects of possible flood defense measures - scenarios . The scenarios
were proposed by the IKSO and experts from the Water Authorities in the Czech
Republic, Poland and Germany
• to assess the consequences of climate change trends on flood risk.
These objectives were realized by the development of a flood simulation model for the
Oder basin with the following phases:
• development of the LISFLOOD model including special modifications for the Oder;
•t of a high-resolution GIS for the Oder basin;
• testing and validation of the LISFLOOD model for the floods of 1977, 1985 and 1997
• simulation of scenarios to assess the effects of possible flood defense measures.
The Workgroup Floods of the IKSO has defined a list of 81 scenarios with flood defense
measures.
The LISFLOOD model
LISFLOOD can simulate floods in medium-size and large river basins. Contrary to most
hydrologicai models LISFLOOD can simulate large areas while maintaining a high
spatial resolution, proper flood routing methods and physical process descriptions.
Through its nested approach - LISFLOOD consists of a catchment water balance model,
a catchment flood simulation model, and a flood inundation simulation model - the m ODER-LISFLOOD scenarios De Roo & Schmuck
model is capable to simulate both the effects of land use change and climate change, and
engineering flood defense methods.
Methodology
For this study the Oder catchment upstream of the Warta confluence has been simulated
on a regular grid of 1km'. The total area of this part of the Oder catchment is 53.787 km .
A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a horizontal spatial resolution of 75 m together
with digital maps of the actual rivers has been used to determine the flow network.
Especially for this project, a soil database on the scale of 1:250,000 has been developed
for the Oder, in cooperation with the European Soils Bureau of the European
Commission. The Corine land cover database - developed under the PHARE Programme
of the European Commission - with a resolution of 100m - has been used. Furthermore, a
digital historic land use database has been developed by JRC and GISIG, containing the
land use in the Oder of around 1780, based on the Schmettau maps.
Three historic flood events have been selected to test the LISFLOOD model: the floods
of August 1977, August 1985 and July 1997. In general, the results show that the
LISFLOOD model simulates both the overall water-balance of the Oder and the three
flood events with reasonable quality, sufficient to be used as a model for the analysis of
scenarios. It can be observed that the results improve from 1977 to 1997 due to better
input data: more precipation and climate stations.
A set of 81 scenarios has been defined to investigate the effects of flood defense
measures and also of expected future trends of climate and land use change. These
scenarios can be divided into eight groups:
• Reference scenarios, which reflect the current situation
• Engineering scenarios as defined by IKSO until the year 2030
• Scenarios on water reservoir management
•s of historic land use
• Scenarios of future expected land use changes and land use manipulation for flood
defense
• Scenarios of Brandenburg retention areas
•s of climate change
• Combination scenarios
It has been decided to use the 1997 event as the reference condition. This means that all
scenario results are valid for this extreme flood. For smaller events the results will be
different.
Conclusions
Based on the scenario calculations, it can be concluded that the proposed engineering
flood defense measures by IKSO until 2030, decrease flood peak discharges with 435 to
1330 m3/s (14-46%) and decrease waterlevels between 80 cm and 300 cm for Poland and
Germany. In the Czech Republic, the effects are less (-69 m3/s). This conclusion is valid
for the 1997 flood event, and is compared with simulations using the 2001 reference
vi