Hausse de l'activité féminine : quels liens avec l'évolution de la fécondité ? (version anglaise)

Didier Blanchet, Sophie Pennec

Description

L'évolution des taux d'activité féminins est parfois mise en parallèle avec celle de la fécondité. Ce lien soulève de nombreuses questions : est-il purement fortuit ou traduit-il un rapport causal, et de quel sens peut-il être ? Est-ce la désaffection pour les familles nombreuses qui aurait permis la hausse des taux d'activité, ou est-ce au contraire la hausse du désir ou du besoin d'activité qui ont conduit les ménages à limiter leur descendance ? Par ailleurs, ces évolutions ont-elles interféré avec une modification du degré d'incompatibilité entre activité et charge de famille ? Il est possible d'examiner ces interdépendances à l'aide d'un modèle simple qui n'en privilégie aucune a priori. Son application fait ressortir le rôle moteur de la préférence pour l'activité, davantage qu'une désaffection intrinsèque pour les familles nombreuses. Cette thèse est compatible avec une caractéristique importante de l'évolution de l'activité féminine : le fait qu'elle s'est fortement accrue à charge de famille donnée. Ce diagnostic se retrouve si l'on analyse les comportements démographiques et d'activité selon le niveau de diplôme atteint par la mère.

Sujets

• INSEE
• Famille
• Femme
• Fécondité
• Sociologie, société et politique

Informations

• Publié par: insee
• Nombre de lectures: 32
• Langue: English

Extrait

Is the rise in female
participation linked to fertility
rate trends?*
Didier Changes in female participation rates are sometimes related to changes in
Blanchet and fertility rates. This association raises a number of questions. Is it pure
Sophie Pennec** coincidence or does it reflect a causal relation and, if so, in which direction?
Has the shift away from large families prompted the increase in the
participation rate or rather has the increasing desire or need to work
prompted families to limit the number of children they have? Furthermore,
have these changes interfered with the modification of the extent of
incompatibility between work and family size?
These interdependencies can be studied using a simple model that does not a
priori favour any one of them. The application of this model reveals the driving
role of preference for participation over an intrinsic disinclination for large
families. This theory is compatible with an important characteristic in the
growth in female participation: the fact that it has risen sharply for a given
family size. The same finding results from an analysis of demographic and
participation patterns by the mother’s level of qualifications.
** At the time of writing
this article, Didier
Blanchet was Head of
1INSEE’s Social Policy emale participation and fertility rates detailed measurements of these tren , but tods
and Redistribution Fhave changed a great deal since the interpret them at their aggregate level.Division and a
researcher at INED. mid 1960s. These trends are summarised in
Sophie Pennec is a chart I. The average number of children per
woman, as measured by the cyclical fertilityDebated CausalityThis article is an update
of Blanchet and Pennec indicator, dropped from a high of 2.9 in 1964
(1993). The authors to around 1.8 to 1.9 in 1975. More recently, itWhat conclusions can be drawn about the
would like to thank the
has fallen to a new level of approximatelysimultaneous increase in female participationtwo anonymous editors
for their constructive 1.65 to 1.7. Female participation, as measuredand decrease in fertility? A number of
comments on a previous by the percentage of the female populationcontrasting interpretations can be put forward.
version of this article.
aged 25 to 49 in the labour force, increased
1from 42% to 80% over the same period. The See, for example, Lelièvre (1987), Des Nétumières (1994), and
Djider and Lefranc (1995).purpose of this article is not to propose more
Names and dates in pa-
rentheses refer to the
bibliography at the end *Originally published as "Projections de population active et participation au marché du travail," Économie et Statistique , no. 300,
of the article. 1996 – 10.
INSEE STUDIES N° 9, November1997 1Chart I There could be a causal link running from
Growth in female participation (percentage fertility to participation: exogenous causes may
of the female population aged 25 to 49 in the have reduced family size and therefore made
labour force) and fertility (cyclical rate) more women available to endeavour to enter
the labour market. Alternatively, motivations
for employment could be growing and bringing
about a drop in fertility. This viewpoint is
typical of many economic approaches to
demographic behaviour and labour supply: the
general increase in wage earning labour
productivity has raised the opportunity cost of
not working. This in turn has led to a general
shift from the domestic sphere to the market
sphere. The drop in fertility can be seen as a
result of this shift. A third approach is to deny
any link between the two and to view the
phenomenon as a pure coincidence devoid of
any causal relation.
At first glance, the data do not come out in
favour of any one of these different
Chart II interpretations. There is admittedly an
Growth in female participation for a given argument in support of the theory of
number of dependent children independence, which is that participation rates
have greatly increased, even for a given fertility
level. This can be seen in chart II, which shows
the increase in the participation rate by the
number of dependent children. This increase
actually does suggest that the increase in
participation is independent to some extent
(Véron, 1988). However, this finding does not
uphold the theory that the two phenomena are
totally independent. Although it implies that
the drop in fertility cannot totally explain the
increase in general participation, it does not
exclude the possibility of a partial explanation.
In addition, this finding tells us nothing about
the possible converse effects of the increase in
participation on fertility. We will thus examine
Coverage: women aged over 15 with 0, 1, 2 or 3 dependent children all the possible relationships using an approach
aged under 16 up to 1982 and aged under 18 in 1990. that does not a priori favour any of them and
Source: Population censuses (INSEE)
which, following quantification, ranks them.
Table 1
Breakdown* of the female population by A simple model for analysis ...
participation and the number of dependent
children Our analysis starts by stylising the problem. We
analyse the interdependencies between female
Three or more Two or fewer participation and family size using
children children
cross tabulations derived by describing these
two phenomena dichotomously. We divide the
In the labour force (1) a b
population into women with a high level of
involvement in the labour market, using aOut of the labour force (2) c d
criterion defined later in this article, and
(1) In the labour force: high level of involvement on the labour women with a low level of involvement. These
market.
we call “in the labour force” and “out of the(2) Out of the labour force: low level of involvement on the
labour market. labour force” respectively in order to simplify
*a + b + c + d = 1 the presentation. For fertility, we divide women
2 INSEE STUDIES N°9, November 1997 into two groups: those with more than two cross tabulations between successive censuses.
children and those with two or fewer children. These changes can be seen as the result of three
possible developments, which are not mutually
The population studied is thus divided into 2 exclusive, but are rather liable to overlap.2
categories: women in the labour force with
more than two children and those with two or - Take first of all the example of a change in the
fewer children, and women out of the labour parameter denoting incompatibility between
force using the same family size criterion (sepearticipation and family size. Let us
table 1). The observed frequencies a, b, c, and d suppose that it increases. The potential
in the table’s four cells are obviously assumedeffects are twofold, with one part of the
to satisfy the restriction tha + t b + c + d = 1.population mo ving towards the
Over time, the values of parameters a, b, c, and high participation/small family model and
d will change, but they must always sum to one: another part of the population moving towards
a decrease in the number of individuals in one the opposite low participation/large family
cell necessarily entails an increase in at leasmtodel. The ultimate effects on total
one of the other three cells. The idea is thus to participation and total fertility are therefore
analyse these shifts and understand what theyambiguous, since they depend on the levels of
represent in terms of links between the two the other two parameters and . This is in
types of behaviour. line with the intuition: if two behavioural
patterns become less compatible, we do not
The log linear model described in the normally know which one will increase at the
following box is particularly well suited to expense of the other.
analysing these shifts. This model circumvents
the problems posed by the restriction that the The main and unambiguous effect of a change in
four rates in table 1 must sum to one, since tithe parameter denoting preference for
entails reparameterising them using three participation is an increase in both general
mutually independent values. More participation and participation for a given family
importantly, it involves a more flexible causalsize. A closer look at chart II enables us to
framework than the simple search for anticipate that this type of phenomenon has
uni directional dependencies between actually been observed in France. We can thus
participation and fertility, provided that the expect a spillover effect on family size, provided
three parameters in this model are interpreted in that the parameter is not equal to zero. Although a
terms of exogenous factors of change: growing preference for participation might prompt
a large number of mothers to work without
the first parameter ( in the box) measures thechanging their choice of family size (compared
degree of preference for the first row of thewith previous generations of women), part of this
table: it can therefore be interpreted as a decision to participate will also translate into a shift
parameter of preference for participation as into the category of small families. Less
opposed to being out of the labour force; compatibility between work and family size will
strengthen this trend. Only i g