Spatial modelling of renewable energy integrating remote sensing data [Elektronische Ressource] / by Shifeng Wang

Shifeng Wang

Informations

• Publié par: albert-ludwigs-universitat_freiburg
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 85
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

SPATIAL MODELLING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
INTEGRATING REMOTE SENSING DATA




Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of
the degree Doctor rer. nat. of the
Faculty of Forest and Environmental Sciences,
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität
Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany



By

Shifeng Wang







Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
2010







































Dean: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Gero Becker
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Barbara Koch
2nd Reviewer: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Rudolf Pelz
Disputation: 7.12.2010

Acknowledgements
I sincerely express my gratitude to Prof. Dr. Barbara Koch for accepting me as a doctoral
student at the Department of Remote Sensing and Landscape Information Systems
(FELIS). She introduced me to a new field of renewable energy, helped me to completely
―enter‖ the field and encouraged me to think critically and analytically. Without her
invaluable supervision, support and contribution, I would not have obtained such
interesting results in my research. I am indebted to her.

I delightedly acknowledge another supervisor Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter R. Pelz from the
Department of Forest Biometry. He gave me a lot of wonderful suggestions, comments
and criticisms for my research. Thank him for his help.

Thanks to my colleagues at FELIS, especially Dr. Matthias Dees and Mr. Christian Schill,
for their friendship, patience and support and the enlightening discussions on the topics of
remote sensing, GIS, mathematical, renewable energy and others. They have left an
unforgettable impression on me. Thanks to Christian Schill for the translation of the
German summary.

I am deeply grateful to the forest program at the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA), especially Dr. Michael Obersteiner, Dr. Fritz Steffen, Dr.
Sylvain Leduc and Mr. Kraxner Florian, etc. There are so many people who helped me
when I stayed in Vienna, Austria and still helped me after I left Vienna that I can not list
them all. I am indebted to them.

I would also like to express my honest appreciation to my parents and my brother. Thank
you for supporting me with my studies in Germany, always encouraging me and pushing
me forward. Thank my brother for taking good care of my parents, supporting me and
making me concentrate on my research in Germany. A special thanks to Dr. Sicong Wang
for supporting me and taking good care of me.

Thank Marylou Khalfa (Swansea University, U.K.) for help in editing English grammar
and style.

The study is funded by GEOBENE (Global Earth Observation - Benefit Estimation: Now,
Next and Emerging) project.



Shifeng Wang (汪诗锋)
28, June 2010, Freiburg, Germany

CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF FIGURES .............. v
ABBREVIATIONS ............. vi
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... vii
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG .................................... ix
1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 1
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND ........................ 1
1.2 RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE ......................... 3
1.2.1 Energy and population ................................................................................................ 3
1.2.2 Energy and climate ..... 4
1.2.3 Chance of renewable energy ....................... 4
1.2.4 Characteristics of renewable energy .......................................................................... 6
1.2.5 Development of renewable energy .............. 6
1.3 RESEARCH MOTIVATION ........................................................... 8
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND OBJECTIVES .................................................................. 9
1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION .... 11
2 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................... 12
2.1 OVERVIEW OF MODELING RENEWABLE ENERGY ..................... 12
2.2 MATHEMATICAL APPROACHES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIMIZATION MODELS ... 14
2.3 ENERGY SCENARIO ................................................................................................. 15
2.4 EQUILIBRIUM THEORY............................ 16
2.5 REFERENCE ENERGY SYSTEM ................................................................................. 18
2.6 SPATIAL WEIGHT ..................................... 20
2.7 SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ................... 21
2.8 SPATIAL MODEL SPECIFICATION TEST ...................................................................... 24
2.9 SPATIAL TREND MODEL ........................................................... 26
2.10 STATISTICAL MODEL SELECTION CRITERIONS ....................................................... 28
2.11 OPTIMIZATION MODELS FOR SUPPLY .... 30
2.12 STATISTICAL MODELS FOR CONSUMPTION ............................ 34
3 DESIGN OF OFLR OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR SUPPLY ..... 37
3.1 MODEL OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE ............................................................................. 37
3.2 SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS WITH REMOTE SENSING DATA ................... 38
3.3 SIMPLIFICATION OF SUPPLY CHAIN.......... 41
3.4 REGULAR GRID OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND REGIONS ................................................. 44
3.5 SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ............................................................... 45
i
3.6 FLEXIBILITY ........................................................................................................... 46
4 DESCRIPTION OF OFLR MODEL ................................................... 48
4.1 ECONOMIC THEORY ................................................................ 48
4.2 SYMBOL SYSTEM .... 49
4.3 SUBSCRIPTS AND SETS ............................................................ 51
4.4 VARIABLES DESCRIPTION ....................................................... 51
4.5 PARAMETERS DESCRIPTION .................... 52
4.6 CONSTRAINT EQUATIONS ................................ 53
4.6.1 Economics ................................................................................. 53
4.6.2 Renewable energy potential ...................... 53
4.6.3 Renewable energy plants .......................... 54
4.6.4 Transportation plants ................................................................................................ 56
4.6.5 Demand regions ........ 58
4.6.6 Remote sensing-based constraints ............................................................................ 58
4.7 OBJECTIVE FUNCTION ............................................................ 60
4.8 DIAGRAM ............................................... 62
5 DESCRIPTION OF IST MODEL FOR CONSUMPTION ............... 64
5.1 IST MODEL ............................................................................................................. 64
5.2 SPATIAL STATISTICAL MODEL SELECTION PROCEDURE ............ 65
6 CASE STUDIES ..................................................................................... 67
6.1 CASE STUDY OF OFLR MODEL ............................................... 67
6.1.1 Materials ................................................... 67
6.1.2 Experimental design ................................. 73
6.1.3 Results ....................................................... 76
6.2 CASE STUDY OF IST MODEL ................................................................................... 88
6.2.1 Materials 88
6.2.2 Experimental workflow ............................. 92
6.2.3 Results ....................................................... 94
7 DISCUSSION ......................................................... 99
7.1 DISCUSSION OF OFLR MODEL ............................................... 99
7.2 DISCUSSION OF IST MODEL .................................................. 102
7.3 DISCUSSION OF CASE STUDY OF OFLR MODEL .................... 104
7.4 DISCUSSION OF CASE STUDY OF IST MODEL ......................................................... 107
8 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK ......... 112
8.1 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 112
ii
8.2 FUTURE WORK ..................................................................................................... 114
REFERENCES ........................... 115
APPENDIX I: CODES OF 49 U.S. STATES AND RELATED NAME ............. 125
iii
List of Tables
Table 1-1. Energy consumption in 2004 ........................................................................................... 4
Table 1-2. Selected renewable energy indicators ............. 7
Table 2-1. Comparison of Moran’s I and Geary’s C.....