Tutorial A: Cost Risk Analysis/Tim Anderson, The Aerospace Corporation October 25, 2005 8 a.m. to noon This tutorial is for acquisition managers, systems engineers, risk managers, and engineering specialists and will focus on how to work with cost risk analysts to develop realistic cost probability distributions and the probabilistic nature of each program element of cost in a cost estimate. It will identify how risk information is used to create a probabilistic cost distribution used for decision-making while integrating program technical uncertainty and cost modeling variation into a probabilistic cost estimate using state-of-the-art statistical methods. The risk-adjusted cost distribution can be used to determine the confidence of meeting budget constraints and also identify the budget necessary to have a specific level of confidence. The tutorial will show how to organize and display the probabilistic nature of the cost estimate in a way that is explainable to decision-makers with a range of possible costs as well as their likelihoods. Examples will illustrate how to set up and run the simulations and then properly interpret the results. Attendees will receive the Aerospace Corporation’s Cost-Risk Reference Card to use in their day-to-day work. Tutorial Instructor Background Tim Anderson is a Senior Engineering Specialist for The Aerospace Corporation. As a member of the Engineering and Technology Group, he provides cost estimating and ...