Unpacking trade costs [Elektronische Ressource] : theory and evidence / vorgelegt von Benjamin Jung

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• Publié par: eberhard_karls_universitat_tubingen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2009
• Nombre de lectures: 17
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 8 Mo

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Unpacking Trade Costs: Theory and Evidence
Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades
an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultat
der Eberhard-Karls-Universitat Tubingen
vorgelegt von
Benjamin Jung
aus Frankfurt/Main
2009Dekanin: Professor Dr. Kerstin Pull
Erstberichterstatter: Dr. Wilhelm Kohler
Zweitberichterstatterin: Professor Dr. Claudia Buch
Tag der mundlic hen Prufu ng: 21.07.2009
iiAcknowledgements
I am grateful to my supervisor, Wilhelm Kohler, for his support. I am fortunate to
have Gabriel Felbermayr as advisor and co-author. His guidance and insights has provided
essential support for my work.
I greatly appriciate nancial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
through a PhD grant. Part of this doctoral thesis was written when I was visiting scholar
at The Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP),
University of Nottingham. The visit was generously supported by The Leverhulm Trust.
I am grateful to all my colleagues and friends in Tubingen and Hohenheim with whom I
shared all my academic and non-academic moments. They all provided me with great sup-
port. I have greatly bene ted from comments, criticism, and ideas during conferences, work-
shops, and research seminars at the Universities of Athens, Champain-Urbana, G ottingen,
Graz, Hamburg, Hohenheim, Munich, Nottingham, Paderborn, Tubingen, and Vienna, and
at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW). In particular, I am grateful to Alan
Deardor for his discussion of an early draft of my thesis.
Last but not least I would like to thank my family for all their love, patience, and
encouragement.
iiiContents
1 Introduction 1
2 Sorting It Out: Technical Barriers To Trade and Industry Productivity 5
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Theoretical framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2.1 Demand for inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2.2 Production of inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.3 Industry aggregation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.2.4 General equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.3 Industry productivity e ects of TBT reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.3.1 T-neutral deregulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3.2 Incremental mutual recognition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.3.3 Comparing TBT reform to lower variable trade costs . . . . . . . . . 24
2.4 Numerical exercise at the industry level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.5 Discussion and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.5.1 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.5.2 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.6 Appendix A. Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.7 Appendix B. Guide to calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.7.1 Theoretical framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.7.2 Industry productivity e ects of TBT reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
iv3 Ethnic Networks, Information, and International Trade: Revisiting the
Evidence 41
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.2 Econometric speci cation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.2.1 A theory-based gravity model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.2.2 The role of networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.3 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.3.1 Trade data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.3.2 Migration data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.3.3 Other data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.4 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.4.1 The direct and indirect e ect of the Chinese network on aggregate
bilateral trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.4.2 The Chinese network by commodity group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.4.3 Strong versus weak network links: Ethnic Chinese and aggregate trade 60
3.4.4 Strong versus weak network links: Ethnic Chinese in di erent com-
modity groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.5 Other migrant networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.7 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.7.1 List of countries and summary statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.7.2 Details to Chinese networks (Tables 3.2 to 3.4) . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.7.3 Details to other migrant networks (Figure 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
4 The Pro-Trade E ect of the Brain-Drain: Sorting Out Confounding Fac-
tors 74
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4.2 Econometric speci cation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4.3 Data and empirical results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4.4 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
v5 Public Information, Bayesian Updating, and Bilateral Trade 88
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.2 Model and empirical strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
5.2.1 A heuristic derivation of the gravity equation under sunk costs . . . 91
5.2.2 The interplay of private expectations and public information . . . . 94
5.3 Data and empirical strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
5.3.1 Exploiting data from business brie ngs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
5.3.2 A heuristic exploration of the RBB data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
5.3.3 Empirical strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
5.4 Results and robustness checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.4.1 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.4.2 Robustness checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.6 Appendix. Additional Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6 Trade Intermediation and the Organization of Exporters 121
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.2 Model setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.2.1 Demand structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.2.2 Product heterogeneity and exporting via own wholesale a liates . . 127
6.2.3 Trade intermediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
6.3 The choice of export modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
6.3.1 Sorting of rms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
6.3.2 The prevalence of export modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
6.3.3 The trade-FDI relation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
6.4 Empirical evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
6.4.1 Relative prevalence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
6.4.2 The FDI-distance nexus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
6.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
6.6 Appendix A. Proofs and detailed derivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
vi6.7 Appendix B. Summary statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
6.8 Detailed econometric results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
6.9 Industry concordance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
7 Trade Intermediation Versus Wholesale FDI in General Equilibrium 159
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
7.2 Stylized facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
7.3 Model setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7.3.1 Demand structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
7.3.2 Heterogeneous production rms and export modes . . . . . . . . . . 167
7.3.3 Trade intermediation and general importers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
7.3.4 The game between producers and general importers . . . . . . . . . 172
7.4 Choice of export modes with given market tightness . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
7.4.1 Zero cuto pro t conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
7.4.2 Equilibrium sorting of rms over export modes . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
7.4.3 Intermediation, the missing trade puzzle, and other implications . . 180
7.5 Closing the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
7.5.1 Free entry