The climate of Europe

Directorate-General For Translation European Commission

Description

Past, present and future
Research policy and organisation

Informations

• Publié par: EUROPEAN-COMMISSION
• Nombre de lectures: 9
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

The Climate of Europe:
Past, Present and
Future
Hermann Flohn and
Roberto Fantechi
*Jsr" *«*
Sciences
Library
D. Reidel Publishing Company
Dordrecht/ Boston. Lancaster THE CLIMATE OF EUROPE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES LIBRARY
Editorial Advisory Board
R. A. Anthes National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.A.)
University Catholique Louvain (Belgium) A. Berger
Max-Planck-lnstitut fur Chemie (F.R.G.) P. J.Crutzen
Universitat Frankfurt (F.R.G.) H.-W. Georgii
University of Washington, Seattle (U.S.A.) P. V. Hobbs
A. Hollingsworth European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (England)
G. E.Hunt University College London (England)
K. Ya. Kondratyev Main Geophysical Observatory, Moscow (U.S.S.R.)
T. N. Krishnamurti The Florida State University, Tallahassee (U.S.A.)
J. Latham University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (England)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.A.) D. K. Lilly
J. London University of Colorado, Boulder (U.S.A.)
A. H. Oort National Oceanic and Administration (U.S.A.)
I. Orlanski and Atmospheric
H.R. Pruppacher Johannes Gutenberg Universitat, Mainz (F.R.G.)
N. J. Rosenberg University of Nebraska, Lincoln (U.S.A.)
C. J. E. Schuurmans Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht (The Netherlands)
H. Tennekes Koninkli/k Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, de Bilt (The Netherlands)
S. A. Twomey The University of Arizona (U.S.A.)
T. M. L. Wigley University of East Anglia (England)
J. C. Wijngaard National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.A.)
V. E. Zuev Institute for Atmospheric Optics, Tomsk (U.S.S.R.) Commission of the European Communities
The Climate of Europe:
Past, Present
and Future
Natural and Man-Induced Climatic Changes:
A European Perspective
edited by
HERMANN FLOHN
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, F.R.G.
and
ROBERTO FANTECHI
Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, Belgium ^PHr-J^ UK_
PARL EUROP. Biblioth.
N. C.
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ZU/l
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D.Reidel Publishing Company
A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP
Dordrecht / Boston / Lancaster Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title: HE
The Climate of Europe: past, present and future.
At head of title: Commission of the European Communities.
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Europe-Climate. 2. Paleoclimatology. 3. Climatic changes.
4. Man-Influence on nature. I. Flohn, Hermann. II. Fantechi, Roberto.
III. Commission of the European Communities.
QC989.A1C58 1984 551.694 83-24776
ISBN 90-277-1745-1
Publication arrangements by
Commission of the European Communities
Directorate-General Information Market and Innovation, Luxembourg
EUR 8038
Q 1984 ECSC, EEC, EAEC, Brussels and Luxembourg
LEGAL NOTICE
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Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information.
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Printed in The Netherlands TABLE OF CONTENTS
Editors' Preface ix
General Summary 1
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 15
CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE IN THE LAST THOUSAND YEARS: NATURAL
CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS AND CHANGE 2
2.1. Introduction 2
2.2. Data7
2.3. The climatic record so far as known 33
2.3.1. The Medieval Warm epoch
2.3.2. The unsettled and deteriorating climate in the
Late Middle Ages 38
2.3.3. The climax of the Little Ice Age 44
2.3.3.1. Temperature considerations and snow-
cover, glacier advance etc.5
2.3.3.2. Rainfall, wetness of ground, floods,
landslips, etc. 51
2.3.3.3. Storms and sea-floods, etc.3
2.3.4. The recovery from the Little Age Ice to the
twentieth century climate
2.4. Conclusions 6
2.5. Summary
CHAPTER 3: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS TIME CHANGES IN
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, BASED ON INSTRUMENTAL
OBSERVATIONS5
3.1. Temperature
3.1.1. Changes of temperature level 6
3.1.1.1. "Normal", changes and fluctuations 6
3.1.1.2. Range of 30-year mean temperatures7
3.1.1.3. Coherence between seasons 72
3.1.1.4. Spatial coherence3
3.1.1.5. Present temperature trends4
3.1.2. Changes in variability 78
3.1.2.1. Temperature variability
3.1.2.2. Time changes of temperature variability 79
3.1.2.3. Coherence over Europe and between
seasons 81
3.1.2.4. Present trend in temperature variability 82
3.1.3. Other aspects of temperature changes 8
3.1.3.1. Temperature extremes
3.1.3.2. Spectral distribution of temperature
variance 90 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS
3.1.3.3. Duration and shift of "seasons" 92
3.1.3.4. Yearly amplitude of temperature6
3.1.3.5. The city-effect one8
3.1.4. Relation between temperature, winds and ocean
currents 99
3.1.5. Conclusions 100
3.1.5.1. Mean temperature level 10
3.1.5.2. Interannual variability1
3.1.5.3. Other aspects
3.2. Rainfall and water budget2
3.2.1. Definition and measurements
3.2.2. Time changes and variability of rainfall 103
3.2.3. Times andy of runoff 110
3.2.4. City effects on precipitation 116
3.2.5. Conclusions 117
CHAPTER 4: CARBON CYCLE, GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND OTHER
ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS ON CLIMATE8
4.1. The carbon cycle and the accuracy of its modelling 11
4.1.1. Introduction
4.1.2. The various carbon pools 121
4.1.2.1. The atmosphere
4.1.2.2. The terrestrial biosphere 124
4.1.2.3. The ocean
4.1.2.3.1. Marinee5
4.1.2.3.2. Dead organic matter
4.1.2.3.3. Dissolved inorganic carbon 12
4.1.2.3.4. Solid carbonate 130
4.1.3. Impact of human activities 131
4.1.3.1. What we know
4.1.3.2. What we do not know
4.1.3.3. What we know through proxy indicators
and models3
4.1.4. Conclusion 13
4.2. Man's Impact on Climate4
4.2.1. Introduction and energetics of man's impacts
on climate5
4.2.2. Energy demand and climatic implications of
energy use8
4.2.2.1. Energy demand
4.2.2.2.y release and climatic implica­
tions 143
4.2.3. The carbon dioxide problem
4.2.3.1. The Greenhouse effect 146
4.2.3.2. History and projection of CO2 produc­
tion from fossil fuel combustion 147
4.2.3.3. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and
the carbon cycle9
4.2.3.4. Temperature changes from doubling
atmosphere C0„ 155