Koen, V. and P. van den Noord (2005), "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 417, OECD Publishing. doi:10.1787/237714513517
Unclassified ECO/WKP(2005)4 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement EconomiquesOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 10-Feb-2005 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ ng ish - Or. English E l ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
FISCAL GIMMICKRY IN EUROPE: ONE-OFF MEASURES AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS, No. 417 By Vincent Koen and Paul van den Noord
All Economics Department Working Papers are now available through OECD's Internet Web site at http://www.oecd.org/eco/JT00178311 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format
ECO/WKP(2005)4
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................... 4 II. DEFINITIONS: ONE-OFF MEASURES AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING ........................... 6 III. AN INCOMPLETE INVENTORY OF FISCAL GIMMICKS .................................................... 7 Exclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Three generations of deficit gimmicks .......................................................................................... 8 Deficit gimmicks elsewhere ........................................................................................................ 11 Debtgimmicks............................................................................................................................12IV. WHEN ARE GIMMICKS MOST LIKELY USED? .................................................................. 13 V. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ......................................................................................................... 25 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 33 Boxes 1. Securitisations ............................................................................................................................. 11 2. Do fiscal rules encourage recourse to gimmicks? Findings in the literature ............................... 13 3. Deficit bias and the degree of centralisation of the budget process ............................................ 19 Tables 1. Eurostat decisions on possible accounting distortions affecting the fiscal balance....................... 9 2. Fiscal balance: first notification .................................................................................................. 10 3. Measures which may affect gross public debt but not, or much less, government net worth ..... 12 4. Revisions to fiscal balance following the first notification ......................................................... 15 5. One-offs, “creative accounting operations and reclassifications affecting the fiscal balance ... 15 6. Bare deficits and gimmicks, 1993-2000 ...................................................................................... 16 7. Bare deficits and gimmicks: estimation results ........................................................................... 17 8. Bare deficits and gimmicks, breakdown by period ..................................................................... 18 9. Budget centralisation and gimmickry.......................................................................................... 20 10. Budget centralisation and gimmickry: estimation results............................................................ 21 11. Budget centralisation and gimmickry, breakdown by bare deficit level ..................................... 22 12. Budget centralisation and gimmickry, breakdown by debt ratio................................................. 24 Figures 1. Eliminatingdeficits: a moving target ............................................................................................ 5 2. Theodds of gimmickry as a function of the bare deficit............................................................. 17 3. The odds of gimmickry as a function of centralisation ............................................................... 21 Annex tables Table A1. One-offs “creative accountingoperations and classification errors. ................................ 28 Table A2. UMTS licences receipts ..................................................................................................... 32