A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilization

Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

Description

It often seems that different crises are competing to devastate civilisation. This book argues that financial meltdown, dwindling oil reserves, terrorism and food shortages need to be considered as part of the same ailing system.



Most accounts of our contemporary global crises focus on one area, such as climate change, or the threat of terrorism, to the exclusion of others. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed argues that the unwillingness of experts to consider crises from an interdisciplinary perspective, has resulted in their failure to understand historical events. From ecology and the environment, to political governance, the global economy and international relations, Ahmed investigates contemporary crises, not as isolated events, but as trends and processes that belong to a single global system. Ahmed posits that we are therefore not dealing with a 'clash of civilisations', as Samuel P. Huntington argued. Rather, we are dealing with a fundamental crisis of civilisation itself.
Preface and Acknowledgements

Introduction

1. Climate Catastrophe

2. Energy Scarcity

3. Food Insecurity

4. Economic Instability

5. International Terrorism

6. The Militarization Tendency

7. Diagnosis – Interrogating the Global Political Economy

8. Prognosis - The Post-Carbon Revolution and the Renewal of Civilization

Afterword

Notes and References

Index

Sujets

• International Relations
• Political Science
• Environment

Informations

• Publié par: Pluto Press
• Date de parution: 06 août 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781849647915
• Langue: English

Extrait

A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization

First published 2010 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
www.plutobooks.com
Distributed in the United States of America exclusively by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
Copyright © Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed 2010
The right of Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978 0 7453 3054 9 Hardback ISBN 978 0 7453 3053 2 Paperback eISBN 978 1 8496 4791 5 ISBN 978 1 8496 4792 2
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This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental standards of the country of origin.
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Contents

Preface and Acknowledgements
Introduction


Between Danger and Hope
The Invisible Crisis
The Failure of Civil Society
The Struggle for Civilization
The Core Argument
Structure of Argument
1. Climate Catastrophe


A Debate Resolved? Current Climate Change is Unequivocally Anthropogenic
National Security Alert
Rapid Climate Change
Abrupt Change Through ‘Tipping Points’
A Systemic Failure
2. Energy Scarcity


Energy and Society
Quick Alternatives to Conventional Oil?
3. Food Insecurity


The Global Food Empire
Peak Food?
4. Economic Instability


The Problem of ‘Growth’
Global Financial Crisis
5. International Terrorism


Hydrocarbon Over-Dependence
Al-Qaeda and Post-Cold War Western Covert Operations
The ‘Redirection’: Al-Qaeda Sponsorship in the Middle East After 2003
6. The Militarization Tendency


Empire
Defending the Homeland
7. Diagnosis – Interrogating the Global Political Economy


The Continuum of Crisis, and Civilizations as Complex Adaptive Systems
Structural and Socio-Systemic Dynamics of Capitalism
Neoliberal Computational Finance Capitalism
The Political-Legal Regulation of the Global Imperial System
Capitalism’s Philosophical Base
8. Prognosis – The Post-Carbon Revolution and the Renewal of Civilization


Afterword
Notes and References
Index
Preface and Acknowledgements

Fragments of the ideas that led me to write this book began surfacing around 2003, but I only began working on the project concertedly around 2006. Since then, it has been a case of trying desperately to keep up with the pace of events. The project is certainly ambitious – aiming to demonstrate the interconnection of global crises of ecology, energy, economy and extremism; forecast their probable converging trajectories; diagnose their systemic causes; and finally recommend a series of key structural ‘reforms’ that demand urgent attention.
Early on, I had wanted to write a quick, populist book summarizing key issues. But I quickly realized that my own ambitions for the project made this virtually impossible – as my research progressed, it became unequivocally clear that there was considerable confusion throughout the literature (academic and non-academic) about the subjects I was exploring. While there have been huge quantities of books published separately on different global crises, almost none attempted to understand them collectively and systemically; and those few that tried suffered from considerable deficiencies.
It became clear that a much more rigorous approach was essential. But I was keenly aware that a tome read by only a few scholars would contribute little good to the task of tackling the global crises that this book is concerned with. The book is definitely still a ‘tome’, but I’ve ensured that it remains accessible to a general audience. While not dumbing it down, I’ve taken pains to avoid technical jargon unless it is absolutely necessary, introduce readers to the nuances involved in interpreting the available empirical data on global crises, and walk them through the theoretical issues that arise when analyzing these crises’ systemic causes and potential solutions.
The source material for the book cuts across a wide variety of disciplines in both ‘harder’ and ‘softer’ sciences, including but not limited to Climate Sciences (such as Solar Physics, Atmospheric & Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Geography); Geology; Human Ecology; Development, Monetary and Financial Economics; Security Studies; Systems Theory; International Relations Theory; and Social Theory. This is all tied together by my own distinctive theoretical approach to the study of International Relations, on the linkage between political violence and social crisis in the context of imperial social systems. I am most fortunate to have benefited immeasurably from the guidance and criticisms of an interdisciplinary panel of twelve academic peer-reviewers who provided comments on the parts of the book relevant to their specific area expertise. These are (in alphabetical order): Robert D. Crane, former Deputy Director (for Planning) of the US National Security Council; former foreign policy advisor to President Richard Nixon; co-founder of Center for Strategic and International Studies; David Cromwell, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton; Alan Dupont, Michael Hintze Chair of International Security and Director, Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney; Daniele Ganser, Lecturer, Department of History, Basel University; former director of Secret Warfare Project and Senior Researcher, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology; Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow-in-Residence, Post-Carbon Institute; Jon Hughes, former Deputy Editor, The Ecologist ; Richard Levins, John Rock Professor of Population Sciences, Department of Global Health and Population, School of Public Health, Harvard University; Simon Mouatt, Senior Lecturer in Economics & Business Modelling, Southampton Business School, Southampton Solent University; Ola Tunander, Research Professor, International Peace Research Institute, Olso; Consultant for Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Ministry of Defence; Special Expert to Swedish government inquiry into Western covert operations; Jeff Vail, former US Department of the Interior energy infrastructure counterterrorism analyst; former US Air Force intelligence officer; Contributing Editor, The Oil Drum , journal of the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future; David Wasdell, Director of the Apollo-Gaia Project; lead scientist on feedback dynamics of complex systems for the Global System Dynamics and Policies Project of the European Commission; Paul Zarembka, Professor of Economics, State University of New York.
I cannot thank the above individuals enough for so generously dedicating their valuable time, despite their own overwhelming work schedules, to contributing their expertise on different areas of the book relevant to their knowledge base, and/or on its overall argument. In particular, I would like to thank Richard Levins and Jeff Vail for perusing almost the entirety of the draft manuscript, and providing detailed comments on most areas of the book. Their wide-ranging feedback allowed me to greatly increase the integrity of the argument. Obviously, the aforementioned bear no responsibility for any mistakes, errors or deficiencies that might remain, which are mine alone.
Others to whom thanks is due include my dedicated team at the Institute for Policy Research and Development: Farid Froghi, Toufic Machnouk, Wasim Ukra, Pedram Emrouznejad, and Aisha Dennis. Thanks also to Roger van Zwanenberg and the team at Pluto Press for their enthusiasm and professionalism in bringing this project to life. Last but not least, I must thank my wife, Akeela, for her years of endurance and support; my daughters Amina and Zainab for their endless enthusiasm; my in-laws for their patience and advice; my sisters for their unspoken patronage; and my parents for their hard work and prayers – whatever I have achieved rests on their shoulders.
Introduction

BETWEEN DANGER AND HOPE
Only 500 generations ago, hunter-gatherers began cultivating crops and forming their tiny communities into social hierarchies. Around 15 to 20 generations ago, industrial capitalism erupted on a global scale. In the last generation, the entire human species, along with virtually all other species and indeed the entire planet, have been thrown into a series of crises, which many believe threaten to converge in global catastrophe: global warming spiralling out of control; oil prices fluctuating wildly; food riots breaking out in the South; banks collapsing worldwide; the spectre of terror bombings in major cities; and the promise of ‘endless war’ to fight ‘violent extremists’ at home and abroad.
These crises continue to provoke anxiety, confusion, and questions, clear answers to which are increasingly difficult to come by – or at least that’s the impression one can get from the headlines. Is climate change real, and if so, is it really caused primarily by human activities? Are we running out of oil, or is the problem simply a question of supply and demand? Are high food prices due to overpopulation and insufficient food to go round, or to the way food is distributed around the world? What does the global financial crisis mean for neoliberal capitalism – is there a viable alternative? And what, in this context, is the root cause of the rise of violent extremism and international terrorism