A War Too Far

Rogers Paul

Description

There are few today who can claim that the US occupation of Iraq has been a success, for either side. A War Too Far takes this on by looking back on the many unanswered questions about the invasion itself. What was the real reason for the Iraq War? Did George Bush ever have a strategy to confront al-Qaida in one arena? How does the invasion alter Iraq's relationship with Iran? And what does this mean for the future?



Examining the delicate balance of power in Iraq, this book explores the options for a US exit strategy, and how the invasion affects America's relationship with Iran.



Paul Rogers explores:

• The neo-conservative vision of a US-dominated Middle East

• The oil link – Iraq's significance in energy geopolitics

• Links with Israel – the development of close military co-operation between the US and Israeli military

• The growing possibility of a war on Iran and its potential repercussions
Introduction

1. War

2. Aftermath

3. The insurgency takes root

4. Overstretch

5. The Israel factor

6. Oil and the war

7. Fallujah

8. Next: Iran?

9. Endless war

Afterword

Index

Sujets

• International Relations
• Political Science

Informations

• Publié par: Pluto Press
• Date de parution: 20 janvier 2006
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781849642880
• Langue: English

Extrait

A War Too Far

Iraq, Iran and the New American Century

Paul Rogers

P Pluto Press LONDON • ANN ARBOR, MI

First published 2006 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and 839 Greene Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106

www.plutobooks.com

Copyright © Paul Rogers 2006

The right of Paul Rogers to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN ISBN

0 7453 2432 0 hardback 0 7453 2431 2 paperback

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data applied for

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Designed and produced for Pluto Press by Chase Publishing Services Ltd, Fortescue, Sidmouth, EX10 9QG, England Typeset from disk by Stanford DTP Services, Northampton, England Printed and bound in the European Union by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne, England

Contents

INTRODUCTION  The New American Century  The Open Democracy Global Security Series  Acknowledgements

 1. WAR  Introduction  The Quicksand of War  A Long or a Short War?  A Change of Strategy?  A 30year War  Bitter Reactions  Afghan Lessons, Iraqi Futures  2. AFTERMATH  Introduction  Turning Serious  Permanent Occupation?  Losing the Peace  Absence of Control  The Iraqi Calculus  Power without Authority  3. THE INSURGENCY TAKES ROOT  Introduction  The Problems of Occupation  The Failures of Success  The Growing Insurgency  The Nature of Iraqi Resistance  Far from Home  A Question of Motive

viii ix xi

1 2 6 9 15 19 25

30 31 35 39 43 47 52

57 58 64 69 75 79 84

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 4. OVERSTRETCH  Introduction  Where are the Weapons?  Entrapment  A Hard Road  The ‘War on Terror’: Two Years On  The NeoConservative Lens  Iraqi Realities  5. THE ISRAEL FACTOR  Introduction  The Ba’ath Restoration Project  After Saddam, No Respite  Rethinking War  A Week of Violence  A Problem of Strategy  Between Fallujah and Palestine  6. OIL AND THE WAR  Introduction  Abu Ghraib and its Impact  The War for Gulf Oil  US Plans for Military Expansion  Iraq: Echoes of Vietnam  Iraq between Insurgency and Uprising  Follow the Oil  7. FALLUJAH  Introduction  Iraq’s Spiral of Violence  Four More Years for AlQaida  Fallujah Fallout  Dreams and Realities  No Direction Home

90 91 96 101 106 116 120

126 127 134 138 143 150 156

162 163 167 172 176 182 189

195 196 200 204 208 212

CONTENTS

 8. NEXT: IRAN?  Introduction  Iran’s Nuclear Politics  Tides of Victory  Christian Zionists and Neocons: a Heavenly  Marriage  US Nuclear Plans  Iranian Options  Confident Iran  ‘It’s Oil, Stupid’  9. ENDLESS WAR  Introduction  A State of Insecurity  An Unwinnable War  Targeting Iran  The London Bombs in the Wider War  A Jewel for AlQaida’s Crown  Iran: Consequences of a War 10. AFTERWORD – A WAR TOO FAR?  Trends  Events  Determining Factors  Prospects

INDEX

vii

218 219 224

227 232 236 241 245

250 251 254 259 264 267 273

282 284 286 288

289

Introduction

T H E N E W A M E R I C A N C E N T U RY n March 2003, the United States and its coalition partners commenced a largescale military assault on Iraq in order I to terminate the Saddam Hussein regime. This followed the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, the subsequent termination of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the start of the global war on terror. The Iraq War was said to be concerned with Iraq’s development and deployment of weapons of mass destruction, but that was disregarded after such systems could not be found and a second motivation, Iraq’s support for alQaida and other paramilitary groups, was emphasised, even though there was little evidence of any such relationship. In the four years since 9/11, the global war on terror resulted in many tens of thousands of people being killed and many more seriously injured. By mid2005, well over 10,000 people were being detained without trial in Iraq, Afghanistan, Guantanamo and elsewhere, a bitter insurgency in Iraq was continuing, security in much of Afghanistan was deeply problematic and the determined if disparate alQaida movement continued its many activities, not least with the London bombings in early July. Even so, and in spite of the many problems the United States faces in the Middle East and Central Asia, President Bush has made it clear that a military confrontation with Iran should not be ruled out. With the deep US antipathy to the government

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INTRODUCTION

ix

in Tehran, the presumption of a nuclear weapons programme and the suspicions of a developing Iran/Iraq Shi’a axis, there is now the prospect of a third war in the region, adding Iran to Iraq and Afghanistan. To a large extent, the current US military posture in President Bush’s global war on terror stems from the powerfully expressed vision of a New American Century – an international system built on American economic values and orientations. It is a vision of almost messianic proportions, has been present within American conservatism for several generations, but has come to the fore in the ten years from 1995. After the election of George W Bush in November 2000, the outlook of a New American Century was very quickly evident in US policies on issues such as arms control, trade and climate change, with a vigorous unilateralism frequently replacing a rather more multilateral norm. The outlook became much more heightened in the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks but the resultant military actions have failed to bring stability and peace to Iraq and Afghanistan, neither have they prevented many further attacks by paramilitaries linked to the alQaida movement. It is therefore open to question whether the idea of a New American Century will survive and thrive, or whether it will be a shortlived phenomenon as the United States is forced to come to terms with its current predicament. This book seeks, in one particular way, to throw light on this.

T H E O P E N D E M O C R A C Y G L O B A L S E C U R I T Y S E R I E S

Shortly before 9/11, an unusual new web journal was started, Open Democracy, describing itself as ‘a channel for knowledge, learning, participation and understanding that is not owned by a media corporation, does not serve a special interest and does not adhere to a single ideological position’. As part of its early development, and just after 9/11, a weekly Global Security column was started that sought to analyse the developing war

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on terror, trying to put in perspective the unfolding conflict. Since October 2001, some 200 articles have been published on a weekly basis. An earlier book (A War on Terror: Afghanistan and After, Pluto Press, 2004) brought together about 40 articles written between October 2001 and December 2002, and tracking the development of the war in Afghanistan and the subsequent evolution of alQaida and US counterterrorism actions. It covered a period in which the prospects of a war with Iraq were increasing but did not deal specifically with it. As the introduction to that book concluded:

Some mention is made of the developing crisis with Iraq, but that is in many ways a separate and very substantive issue. It is not central to this particular set of articles and perhaps deserves more detailed attention on another occasion.

This book is that ‘occasion’ and uses a similar format, with around 55 articles brought together in chronological order and grouped into chapters, each with a short introduction. The first four chapters give an almost weekbyweek account of the Iraq War from the start in March 2003 through to September of that year. Later chapters extend the period for close to another two years, with the focus on Iraq but covering the developing crisis with Iran. The articles constitute an attempt at contemporary analysis with the disadvantages and advantages of that approach, and might best be taken with other published analysis produced with the benefit of hindsight. The normal mechanism has been for a particular contribution to be written midweek, for publication on the Open Democracy website on the Thursday evening of a given week. The articles are therefore veryimmediatein their perspective. Moreover, since they persistently attempt to analyse events and developments in a predictive context, they can certainly prove at fault on occasions. At the same time, the series builds up into an overall narrative that can also serve as

INTRODUCTION

xi

a reminder of how ideas developed and changed, pointing to issues that can easily be lost a few months or years later. The articles are reproduced here almost exactly as written, with just minor grammatical corrections and a small amount of editing to avoid excessive repetition, but with no adjustments in analysis. The information contained in them is gained from a very wide range of sources, some of the most commonly used being US broadsheets such as theNew York Times,Washington Post,Boston GlobeandLos Angeles Times, other newspapers from the UK, France, Israel, Pakistan and elsewhere, military journals such asDefense News,International Defence Review, Janes Defence Weekly,Janes Intelligence ReviewandAviation Weekand numerous websites but especially the BBC, alJazeera, Juan Cole’sInformed Comment,TruthoutandAsia Times. Some particularly significant news items are sourced to sites in the articles and a few are given as detailed references. Much more comprehensive sourcing is available by going to the individual articles, all of which are available with free access on the Open Democracy website – <www.opendemocracy. net>, and following the links provided.

A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S

I would like to thank the numerous people who have helped me with this book, most notably Anthony Barnett of Open Democracy who got me involved in the first place, and David Hayes, Isabel Hilton and other members of staff with whom I have worked over the past four years. In the period covered by this book I have been able to talk to many journalists, military officers, public officials and activists with direct experience of Iraq, to many Iraqis and Iranians, and to academic and policy specialists in the United States, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Visits to Iran, Pakistan, China, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Japan have supplemented these discussions

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and I have particularly valued a longterm and continuing association with the Oxford Research Group and the UN University for Peace in Costa Rica. Working at the Department of Peace Studies at Bradford University has been a particular pleasure. Fellow members of staff have been a continual source of information and ideas, and the 350 students from over 40 countries, some of them with many years of experience in conflict zones, bring a quite extraordinary wealth of knowledge to the Department.

Paul Rogers August 2005