Do Voters Look to the Future?

Brad Lockerbie

Description

Do voters look to the past, the future, or both when deciding how to vote? In Do Voters Look to the Future?, Brad Lockerbie shows voters to be more sophisticated than much of the work in political science would suggest. He argues that voters do not simply reward or punish the incumbent administration, but instead make a comparative evaluation of the likely performance of each candidate and vote for the one that will most likely provide them with a prosperous future. Making use of data from 1956 through the present, Lockerbie finds that voters take into account both what has happened and what they think will happen when they vote. He finds these economic evaluations to be strongly related to voting behavior both for the House and the Senate, as well as the presidency. Additionally, Lockerbie examines the role of these economic items to explain changes in party identification.
List of Illustrations
Acknowledgments

1. Introduction

2. Simple Economic Relationships

Appendix 2.1: Prospective Evaluations: Are They Partisan Rationalization?

3. Party Identification: Is It Changeable?

Is It Explicable?
Appendix 3.1: Instrumental Variables for PIDt21 (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)
Appendix 3.2: Party Identification as a Function of Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations with Actual Past Party Identification (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)
Appendix 3.3: Party Identification as a Function of Changes in Evaluations (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)

4. Presidential Elections: A More Comprehensive View

5. Congressional Elections: Yes, the Senate Too

6. Economics and Politics: Egocentric or Sociotropic?

Appendix 6.1: Retrospective Egocentric and Sociotropic Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992
Appendix 6.2: Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Items Predicting Political
Attitudes: 1992
Appendix 6.3: Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Economic Evaluations, Ideology, and Party Identification Predicting Political
Attitudes: 1992

7. Forecasting Elections

Appendix 7.1: Data and Sources of Data

8. Concluding Remarks

Notes
References
Index
Illustrations
Tables

Sujets

• Political economy

Informations

• Publié par: State University of New York Press
• Date de parution: 30 juin 2008
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780791478172
• Langue: English

Extrait

Do Voters Look to the Future?

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Do Voters Look to the Future?

Economics and Elections

Brad Lockerbie

State University of New York Press

Published by State University of New York Press, Albany

© 2008 State University of New York

All rights reserved

Printed in the United States of America

No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission. No part of this book may be stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission in writing of the publisher.

For information, address State University of New York Press, Albany, NY www.sunypress.edu

Production by Ryan Morris Marketing by Michael Campochiaro

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Lockerbie, Brad, 1961– Do voters look to the future? : economics and elections / Brad Lockerbie. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7914-7481-5 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Voting—United States. 2. Elections—United States. 3. Presidents—United States—Election. 4. United States—Congress—Elections. 5. United States—Economic conditions. I. Title. JK1967.L63 2008 324.973—dc22 2007036635

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

To my wife, Barry Lockerbie, and to my stepson, Sam Knell

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List of Illustrations

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1:

Chapter 2: Appendix 2.1:

Contents

Introduction

Simple Economic Relationships

Prospective Evaluations: Rationalizations?

Are They Partisan

Chapter 3: Party Identification: Is It Changeable? Is It Explicable? Appendix 3.1: Instrumental Variables for PID t1 (3-Point and 7-Point Scales) Appendix 3.2: Party Identification as a Function of Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations with Actual Past Party Identification (3-Point and 7-Point Scales) Appendix 3.3: Party Identification as a Function of Changes in Evaluations (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)

Chapter 4:

Chapter 5:

Presidential Elections: View

A More Comprehensive

Congressional Elections:

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Yes, the Senate Too

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Chapter 6:

Appendix 6.1:

Appendix 6.2:

Appendix 6.3:

Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1:

Chapter 8:

Notes

References

Index

Contents

Economics and Politics: Sociotropic?

Egocentric or

Retrospective Egocentric and Sociotropic Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992

Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992

Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Economic Evaluations, Ideology, and Party Identification Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992

Forecasting Elections

Data and Sources of Data

Concluding Remarks

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Table 2.1

Table 2.2a

Table 2.2b

Table 2.3

Table 2.4a

Table 2.4b

Table 2.5

Table 2.6a

Table 2.6b

Illustrations

A Bivariate Examination of the Relationship between Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations: 1956–2000

Crosstabulations of Prospective and Retrospective Economic Evaluations: 1992

Crosstabulations of Prospective and Retrospective Economic Evaluations: 1996

Bivariate Relationships between Presidential Vote Choice and Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations

Crosstabulations of Presidential Vote Choice and Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations: 1992

Crosstabulations of Presidential Vote Choice and Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations: 1996

A Multivariate Comparison of Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations on Presidential Vote Choice: 1956–2000

Crosstabulations of Presidential Vote Choice by Prospective Economic Evaluations Controlling for Retrospective Economic Evaluations: 1992

Crosstabulations of Presidential Vote Choice by Prospective Economic Evaluations Controlling for Retrospective Economic Evaluations: 1996

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