Over the Horizon

M. Edelstein David

Description

How do established powers react to growing competitors? The United States currently faces a dilemma with regard to China and others over whether to embrace competition and thus substantial present-day costs or collaborate with its rivals to garner short-term gains while letting them become more powerful. This problem lends considerable urgency to the lessons to be learned from Over the Horizon. David M. Edelstein analyzes past rising powers in his search for answers that point the way forward for the United States as it strives to maintain control over its competitors.Edelstein focuses on the time horizons of political leaders and the effects of long-term uncertainty on decision-making. He notes how state leaders tend to procrastinate when dealing with long-term threats, hoping instead to profit from short-term cooperation, and are reluctant to act precipitously in an uncertain environment. To test his novel theory, Edelstein uses lessons learned from history's great powers: late nineteenth-century Germany, the United States at the turn of the twentieth century, interwar Germany, and the Soviet Union at the origins of the Cold War. Over the Horizon demonstrates that cooperation between declining and rising powers is more common than we might think, although declining states may later regret having given upstarts time to mature into true threats.

Sujets

• Diplomacy
• Diplomatie (homonymie)

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 15 septembre 2017
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781501709449
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

Over the Horizon

Over the Horizon

Time, Uncertainty, and the Rise of Great Powers

Dav i d M . E d e l s t e i n

Cornell University Press

Ithaca and London

Copyright © 2017 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.

First published 2017 by Cornell University Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: Edelstein, David M., author. Title: Over the horizon : time, uncertainty, and the rise of great powers / David M. Edelstein. Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2017. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017004752 (print) | LCCN 2017005598 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501707568 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781501712081 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501709449 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Great powers—History. | World politics. | Time perception—Political aspects. | Uncertainty—Political aspects. Classification: LCC D31 .E34 2017 (print) | LCC D31 (ebook) | DDC 320.9—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004752

Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetablebased, lowVOC inks and acidfree papers that are recycled, totally chlorinefree, or partly composed of nonwood fibers. For further information, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.

To Levi and Gabriel

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Contents

Preface

Introduction:Competition, Cooperation, and the Rise of Great Powers

Time Horizons and International Politics

The Arrival of Imperial Germany

The Rise of the United States The Resurgence of Interwar Germany The Origins of the Cold War Conclusion and the Contemporary Rise of China

Notes Index

vii

ix

1 10 38 71 94 121 151

163 201

Preface

This book is about how varying time horizons affect international politics. The completion of this book has itself required long time horizons. I am grateful to all of those who have supported this project through the years, starting with my mentors at the University of Chicago—Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer, Charles Glaser, and James Fearon. Though this book barely resembles the draft that I wrote years ago, its origins nonetheless lie in the remarkable intellectual environment of the University of Chicago. I could not imagine a better place to have written this book than at George town University. The Center for Security Studies, under the directorship of Bruce Hoffman, has provided both financial and intellectual support, and the center’s terrific staff enables faculty to do their best teaching and re search. The Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, led by the late Carol Lancaster, James ReardonAnderson, and now Joel Hellman, is home to an inspiring group of faculty, staff, and students that makes me excited to go to work every day. The Mortara Center for International Studies has been my physical home. All who visit the Mortara Center are impressed by not only the physical space but also the intellectual excitement it generates. I am grateful to its director, Kate McNamara, during the time I was writing this book, as well as to its small but extremely capable staff. Beyond the institutions, my colleagues at Georgetown have supported and provoked me. In particular, I am grateful to Andy Bennett, Marc Busch, Dan Byman, Christine Fair, George Shambaugh, Bruce Hoffman, Charles King, Keir Lieber, Robert Lieber, Kate McNamara, Abe Newman, Dan Nexon, Erik Voeten, and James Vreeland. Georgetown’s smart and inquisi tive students have pushed to make this project better. Rebecca Lissner, Paul Musgrave, Dani Nedal, and Michael Weintraub have been not only students

ix