Proxy Wars

Eli Berman and David A. Lake

Description

The most common image of world politics involves states negotiating, cooperating, or sometimes fighting with one another; billiard balls in motion on a global pool table. Yet working through local proxies or agents, through what Eli Berman and David A. Lake call a strategy of "indirect control," has always been a central tool of foreign policy. Understanding how countries motivate local allies to act in sometimes costly ways, and when and how that strategy succeeds, is essential to effective foreign policy in today's world. In this splendid collection, Berman and Lake apply a variant of principal-agent theory in which the alignment of interests or objectives between a powerful state and a local proxy is central. Through analysis of nine detailed cases, Proxy Wars finds that: when principals use rewards and punishments tailored to the agent's domestic politics, proxies typically comply with their wishes; when the threat to the principal or the costs to the agent increase, the principal responds with higher-powered incentives and the proxy responds with greater effort; if interests diverge too much, the principal must either take direct action or admit that indirect control is unworkable. Covering events from Denmark under the Nazis to the Korean War to contemporary Afghanistan, and much in between, the chapters in Proxy Wars engage many disciplines and will suit classes taught in political science, economics, international relations, security studies, and much more.

Sujets

• Military history
• Regional geography
• International relations

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 15 mars 2019
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781501733093
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 4 Mo

Extrait

PROXY WARS

PROXY WARS Suppressing Violence through Local Agents

CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS

Edited by Eli Berman and David A. Lake

ITHACA AND LONDON

The authors are grateful for funding from the Office of Naval Research awards #N00014-14-1-0843 and #N00014-16-1-2516. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research.

Copyright © 2019 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the pub- lisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

First published 2019 by Cornell University Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Berman, Eli, editor. | Lake, David A., 1956– editor. | Macdonald, Julia. South Korea, 1950–1953. Title: Proxy wars : suppressing violence through local agents / edited by Eli Berman and David A. Lake. Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018029903 (print) | LCCN 2018032286 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501733093 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501733109 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501733055 | ISBN 9781501733055 (cloth ; alk. paper) | ISBN 9781501733062 (pbk. ; alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Proxy war—History—20th century—Case studies. | Proxy war—History—21st century—Case studies. | United States—Foreign relations—20th century—Case studies. | United States—Foreign relations— 21st century—Case studies. Classification: LCC JZ6385 (ebook) | LCC JZ6385. P76 2019 (print) | DDC 355.02—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018029903

Contents

List of Tables and Figures Acknowledgments

Introduction: Principals, Agents, and Indirect Foreign Policies Eli Berman, David A. Lake, Gerard Padró i Miquel, and Pierre Yared  1.  South Korea, 1950–53: Exogenous Realignment of Preferences Julia M. Macdonald  2.  Denmark, 1940–45: Armed Resistance and Agency Slippage in Germany’s Model Protectorate Brandon Merrell  3.  Colombia, 1990–2010: Cooperation in the War on Drugs Abigail Vaughn  4.  Lebanon and Gaza, 1975–2017: Israel’s Extremes of Interest Alignment Matthew J. Nanes  5.  El Salvador, 1979–92: Revisiting Success Ryan T. Baker  6.  Pakistan, 2001–11: Washington’s Small Stick Clara H. Suong  7.  Not Dark Yet: The Israel-PA Principal-Agent Relationship, 1993–2017 Alexei S. Abrahams  8.  Yemen, 2001–11: Building on Unstable Ground Ben Brewer  9.  Iraq, 2003–11: Principal Failure David A. Lake 10. Policy Implications for the United States Stephen Biddle

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Conclusion Eli Berman and David A. Lake

References About the Contributors Index

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305 327 329

Tables and Figures

Tables

 0.1 Predictions of the theory  1.1 Timeline of key events  1.2 Theoretical expectations and summary results, South Korea  2.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Denmark  2.2 Danish sabotage attacks, 1940–43  2.3 Danish sabotage attacks, 1943  3.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Colombia  4.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Lebanon  5.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, El Salvador  5.2 Timeline of key events, El Salvador  6.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Pakistan  6.2 ofterrlocationatkcsybrosittaajmordnarebmuN extremist groups, 2001–11  7.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Palestinian Authority  8.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Yemen  8.2 liMs’nemeY)CCnM(taoiprroeoClengChaliumlenn performance  9.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Iraq  C.1 Summary of cases and findings

Figures

0.1  Rewards and punishments as a function of disturbances 1.1  Gallup poll of Truman’s job approval ratings

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16 32 35 57 68 68 89 112

144 145 162

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191 214

222 244 290

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viiiTABLES AND FIGURES

3.1  Potential cocaine produced in Andean countries, 1990–2010 3.2  Threats to Colombian security, 1990–2010 3.3  Colombian coca eradication and cultivation, 1990–2010 3.4  Colombian cocaine production and seizure, 1990–2010 3.5  U.S. aid to Colombia, 1990–2010 3.6  Estimated coca leaf cultivation in Andean countries, 1990–2010 5.1  U.S. assistance to El Salvador, 1979–92 6.1  U.S. aid to Pakistan, 1980–2015 6.2  Popularity of the Pakistani military leadership, 2001–12 6.3  U.S. domestic pressure and disturbances to the United States and Pakistan, 2001–12 6.4  Pakistani counterterrorism efforts and domestic political pressure, 2001–12 6.5  U.S. assessment of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, 2001–11 7.1  Israeli fatalities in Israel and the West Bank, 1988–2017 7.2  U.S. aid obligations to the Palestinians, 1993–2016 8.1  U.S. military and security assistance to Yemen, 2001–12 8.2  Yemeni trainees (trained by U.S. government), 2001–12 8.3  U.S. arms shipments to Yemen, 2001–12 8.4  U.S. humanitarian and development aid to Yemen, 2001–12 8.5  Terrorist attacks in Yemen, 2001–12 8.6  U.S. drone strikes in Yemen, 2002–16 9.1  “Disturbances” in Iraq and coalition troop strength, May 2003–May 2015 9.2  Total Iraqi security forces, July 2003–December 2008

82 84 85 85 87

96 140 163 168

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175 188 198 227 228 228

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Acknowledgments

This volume is the product of a multiyear effort by a diverse group of scholars. Our debts are wide and deep, as is our gratitude. One of our greatest debts is to David Laitin, the intellectual godfather of this project, who challenged us to try the method and helped devise the template we have used for the case studies. We are also grateful to Gerard Padró i Miquel and Pierre Yared for their intellectual leadership in developing the theory, and then tailoring it when we discovered the need to account for capacity building as an alternative. They also advised us in ways large and small on the case studies as those progressed. We have benefited not only from the authors of the chapters included in this volume but also from the contributions of other UC San Diego graduate stu- dents who participated in our initial discussions and workshops, including Derek Bonett, Garrett Bredell, Shannon Carcelli, and Liesel Spangler. John Powell con- tributed to a miniconference at UC San Diego in June 2016. We are especially grateful to our colleagues from the policy community who took time from their busy schedules to “ground-truth” our studies in September 2016 at a conference generously hosted at George Washington University. Conrad Crane, Luke Har- tig, Ethan Hollander, Daniel Kurtzer, Daniel Markey, Natan Sachs, Abbey Steele, David Ucko, and Kael Weston all provided detailed and extremely useful com- mentary on the draft chapters. We appreciate the contributions of our academic colleagues who attended that conference as well, including Charles Glaser, Marc Grinberg, Yonatan Lupu, Rennah Miles, Harris Mylonas, and Elizabeth Saunders. Finally, two anonymous reviewers for Cornell University Press provided excellent comments on the penultimate version of the manuscript, seeing value in what we had accomplished to that point but challenging us in ways that greatly improved the final volume. Roger Haydon was, as always, the consummate editor. Lynne Bush worked wonders in compiling, formatting, and editing the manuscript under severe time constraints created only by our usual inefficiencies. Eric Levy copyedited the volume and Ken Bolton prepared the index. None of the above bears responsibility for our errors of commission or omission. This book is part of a larger “Deterrence with Proxies” research project funded by the Minerva Research Institute through the Office of Naval Research award #N00014-16-1-2516. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommenda- tions expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessar- ily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research. We have benefited from the

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