Rising Titans, Falling Giants

Itzkowitz Shifrinson Joshua R.

Description

As a rising great power flexes its muscles on the political-military scene it must examine how to manage its relationships with states suffering from decline; and it has to do so in a careful and strategic manner. In Rising Titans, Falling Giants Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson focuses on the policies that rising states adopt toward their declining competitors in response to declining states' policies, and what that means for the relationship between the two.Rising Titans, Falling Giants integrates disparate approaches to realism into a single theoretical framework, provides new insight into the sources of cooperation and competition in international relations, and offers a new empirical treatment of great power politics at the start and end of the Cold War. Shifrinson challenges the existing historical interpretations of diplomatic history, particularly in terms of the United States-China relationship. Whereas many analysts argue that these two nations are on a collision course, Shifrinson declares instead that rising states often avoid antagonizing those in decline, and highlights episodes that suggest the US-China relationship may prove to be far less conflict-prone than we might expect.

Sujets

• Diplomacy
• History of the Americas
• Diplomatie (homonymie)

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 15 septembre 2018
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781501725067
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Rising Titans, Falling Giants

a volum e in th e series

Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt

A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

Rising Titans, Falling Giants How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts

J o s h ua R . I t z k o w i t z S h i f r i n s o n

Cornell University Press Ithaca and London

Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of subventions from the Department of International Affairs at the George Bush School of Government & Public Service and the Melvin G. Glasscock Center for Humanities Research, both at Texas A&M University, which aided in the publication of this book.

Copyright © 2018 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

First published 2018 by Cornell University Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: Shifrinson, Joshua R. Itzkowitz, author. Title: Rising titans, falling giants : how great powers exploit power  shifts / Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson. Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2018. | Series: Cornell  studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references and  index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018002247 (print) | LCCN 2018002931 (ebook) |  ISBN 9781501725067 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501725074 (epub/mobi) |  ISBN 9781501725050 (cloth ; alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: United States—Foreign relations—Soviet Union. |  Soviet Union—Foreign relations—United States. | Great powers—  History—20th century. | Balance of power—History—  20th century. Classification: LCC E183.8.S65 (ebook) | LCC E183.8.S65 S5435 2018  (print) | DDC 327.73047—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018002247

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Contents

Acknowledgments

Introduction:Rising States and the Fate of Declining Great Powers Predation Theory A Formerly Great Britain:Predicting U.S. and Soviet Strategy The U.S. and Soviet Response to Britain’s Decline Watching the Soviet Union Decline:Assessing Change and Predicting U.S. Strategy

U.S. Strategy and the Decline of the Soviet Union

Conclusion:Rising Powers, the Fate of Declining States, and the Future of Great Power Politics

Appendix 1. Declining Great Powers, 1860–1913 Appendix 2. Interviews Conducted with Former U.S. Government Officials Notes Index

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1 13 42 63

99 119

160

187

191 195 255

Acknowledgments

To paraphrase Lyle Lanley, a professor with an acknowledgments section is a bit like a mule with a spinning wheel: it’s not clear how he got it, and danged if he knows how to use it. This book was a long time coming. While I was a graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) casting about for research topics, the 2007–8 financial crisis was reaching its apogee. In its aftermath, concerns over the course and consequences of U.S. decline were ubiquitous, yet the discussion was disassociated from any thing theoretically or historically informed. The seed of a topic was planted in my mind. Barry Posen systematically encouraged my efforts as this project took shape and evolved. Whatever arguments I offer in this work are immeasur ably better for his feedback; in this, he enjoyed some payback for the critique I offered on his papers and book manuscript while serving as his research assistant. He is a consummate scholar and a role model. Dick Samuels and Taylor Fravel, who also helped shepherd this project along from the begin ning, deserve equal praise. Dick offered incisive suggestions. Taylor was generous with input and critique at every stage. Besides these three scholars, John Mearsheimer, David Edelstein, Jasen Castillo, Kelly Greenhill, and Marc Trachtenberg had the biggest influence on the book. Along with Christopher Layne, Valerie Hudson, Andy Ross, Andrew Natsios, Gabriela Thorton, and Gregory Gause, John, David, and Kelly provided instrumental feedback that helped transform an early ver sion of this work into a completed volume. I owe David and Jasen a partic ular debt for commenting on multiple drafts of several chapters, often on short notice. Marc, meanwhile, was generous with his time, insight, and

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Acknowledgments

patience as I tried to sort through the complicated set of historical questions surrounding great power behavior in the post1945 world. Of course, no book can be completed without the help, input, encourage ment, and support of a wide range of friends and colleagues. I am sure there are omissions in this list, but I particularly want to thank Owen Cote, Steve Van Evera, Brendan Green, Phil Haun, Lindsey O’Rourke, Jennifer Erickson, Ahsan Butt, Keren Fraiman, Andrew Radin, Dan Altman, Peter Krause, Will Norris, Aila Matanock, Jon Lindsay, Miranda Priebe, David Weinberg, Sameer Lalwani, Cindy Williams, Joshua Rovner, Harvey Sapolsky, Colin Jackson, Alec Worsnop, Michele Margolis, Erica Dobbs, Rachel Wellhausen, Noel Anderson, Ben Freidman, Kentaro Maeda, Joseph Torigian, James Conran, Mark Bell, Toby Harris, Paul Staniland, Nicholas Miller, Chris Clary, Caitlin Talmadge, Kaija Schilde, Tara Maller, Alex Downes, Jack Levy, Rachel Stein, Aisha Ahmad, Will Inboden, Annie Tracey Samuel, Sarah Bush, Chad Levinson, Walter Ladwig, Stefanie Hlatky, Rob Litwak, Ethan Corbin, Jim Goldgeier, Keith Darden, Rachel Whitlark, Jessica TriskoDarden, Austin Carson, Kyle Lascurettes, Julia Macdonald, Jeff Friedman, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Rose Kelanic, Jennifer Dixon, Christian Ostermann, Kent Portney, Simon Miles, Evan Braden Montgomery, Tim McDonnell, James Graham Wilson, Stacie Goddard, James McAllister, Erik Gartzke, Jeremi Suri, Man jari Miller, Steve Lobell, Hal Brands, Emily Sellars, Paul MacDonald, Joseph Parent, Dale Copeland, Larry Napper, Norrin Ripsman, Kevin Narizny, Kate Geohegan, Katy Powers, Simon Toner, Paul Avey, Jon Markowitz, Rob ert Reardon, Ryan Grauer, Patrick Porter, Tim Crawford, David Blagden, Eugene Gholz, Domonic Bearfield, Justin Bullock, John A. Thompson, Dan Lindley, Eric Lorber, Richard Maass, Jennifer Keister, Mike Beckley, Stacie Pettyjohn, and John Schuessler. Brendan, in particular, heroically read nearly every word of an earlier version of the manuscript and made the final product far better; Miranda, Jennifer, and Lindsey deserve med als for tolerating far too many of my rambling theoretical musings and his torical digressions. In addition, Mary Sarotte and Jeff Engel were incredible resources on U.S.Soviet relations in the late Cold War and systematically en couraging as I tried to play historian. I am deeply indebted to Michele and the entire Margolis family for putting me up during trips to the Reagan Library. Key portions of this project were completed at the Woodrow Wilson In ternational Center for Scholars, the Belfer Center for Science and Interna tional Affairs, George Washington University’s Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College, and the Cato Institute. Steve Walt, Steve Miller, and Sean LynnJones are heroes for sitting through at least three different pre sentations of my early research at the Belfer Center. Charlie Glaser is a true mensch for offering feedback and being willing to bounce around ideas during my year at George Washington. Meanwhile, I could not have asked for a better environment for revising this work into a viable book than that

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Acknowledgments

provided by the Dickey Center, where Bill Wohlforth, Jennifer Lind, Ben Val entino, Dan Benjamin, Daryl Press, and Steve Brooks were wonderful friends and mentors. The final revisions to this volume were undertaken while I was a visiting scholar with the Cato Institute’s Defense and Foreign Policy Stud ies Program, and I am immensely grateful to Chris Preble for his support. Along the way, I also received useful comments from scholars at the MIRTH Colloquium at the University of California; Southern Methodist University’s Tower Center; Lehigh University’s Department of International Relations; and the University of Chicago’s Program on International Security Policy. My undergraduate advisers—Robert Art, David Hackett Fischer, Seyom Brown, and Shai Feldman—encouraged students to ask big questions and offer big answers. I have tried to follow that motto and am grateful for their guidance. I also benefitted beyond measure from the terrific research assistance provided by Amber Stubblefield, Hannah Fletcher, Lowell Van Ness, and—above all—Julie Malinda Thompson. At Cornell University Press, I thank Steve Walt, Roger Haydon, and Nuno Monteiro for their in sightful comments on the final manuscript. The research in this book was generously supported by grants from the Tobin Project, the Scowcroft Institute for International Affairs, the Clements Center at the University of Texas, and the MIT Center for International Stud ies. Robert Holzweiss and Zachary Roberts at the George H. W. Bush Presi dential Library and Daniel Linke at Princeton University went above and beyond the call of duty in facilitating access to many of the archival docu ments employed in this project. I cannot thank Nicholas Burns, Robert Hutchings, and Philip Zelikow enough for their openness in discussing their work in the George H. W. Bush administration; their insights significantly shapedtheresearch. Beyond the classroom, my life has been enriched by many good friends, all of whom made sure that the research for this book did not overwhelm my life. Sam Eaton and Martin Kaminski made me look forward to each of our many barbeque trips and the occasional hiking diversion. Andy Jaffe and I spent college carousing, and I am glad we have kept that spirit alive. Prem Trivedi and Dan Schleifstein have been among my closest friends for years and voices of reason every step of the way. Melissa and Dave Wreski are two of my favorite people in the world. Karin Schneider has been a source of wisdom for many years; I owe her a great deal. Lastly, my family has always been a source of inspiration. My mother, Joan Itzkowitz, consistently shows what perseverance means. Zachary Itzkowitz Shifrinson put up with a cranky older brother for too many months. The good humor and calm that he communicated in numerous phone calls made the research process bearable. Finally, I am lucky beyond measure to have Stephen Shifrinson for a father. At every step, he encouraged me. At everymomentofdoubt,hesupportedme.Hehasbeenmybiggestfan,and I hope he knows I am his. It is to him that I dedicate this book.

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