The 2007 general elections in Kenya led to major unrest. The aim of this book is to examine and analyse the events that set the country on fire for several weeks. The situation has largely stabilised since April 2008, when the articles collected in this book were first individually published. Some political information has been updated post April 2008. The coalition government took shape with Mwai Kibaki remaining President while Raila Odinga became the Prime Minister. The country however remains in suspense, as do the donors who had made it possible for Kenya to restore a semblance of peace. But to what point will they be interested in investing in the country and to protect their place in it? The collection comprises a translation of a special issue of Les Cahiers d'Afrique de l'Est, n?37, the journal of the Institut Fran?ais de Recherche en Afrique (IFRA) and a collection of articles from Politique Africaine, n?109. On site researchers - Bernard Calas, Anne Cussac, Dominique Connan, Musambayi Katumanga, J?r?me Lafargue, and Patrick Mutahi; fieldwork carried out between December 2007 and February 2008 by Florence Brisset-Foucault, Ronan Porhel, Brice Rambaud; and in-depth country knowledge by Claire M?dard and Herv? Maupeu, combined to produce a mass of data within a short time. Whilst the tone of the book is not highly optimistic, the thrust is not intended to dampen the unanimous sense of hope in the country that the political and social situation will once more be more than just tolerable.
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he General Elections in Kenya, 2007
Special Issue
Les Caiers d’Afrique de l’Est, n° 38 Nairobi, May – August 2008
Les Caiers d’Afrique de l’Est, n° 38
he General Elections in Kenya, 2007
Contributors
Florence BRISSETFOUCAULT Researcer at Université Paris 1 Pantéon-Sorbonne.
Bernard CALAS IFRA-Nairobi director and Professor of Geograpy.
Dominique CONNAN PD candidate at Université Paris 1, and researc fellow at IFRA-Nairobi.
Anne CUSSAC PD candidate at Université Paris 1, and researc fellow at IFRA-Nairobi.
Jérôme LAFARGUE IFRA-Nairobi deputy director and researcer in Political Science.
Hervé MAUPEU CREPAO director and political science lecturer.
Claire MÉDARD IRD researcer.
Patrick MUTAHI Director of Africa Policy Institute, Nairobi.
Ronan PORHEL PD older in economics and researcer at CREPAO.
Brice RAMBAUD PD older from CEMIC, Université Bordeaux 3.
he General Elections in Kenya, 2007
Edited by Jérôme Lafargue
Mkuki na Nyota Publisers Ltd P. O. Box 4246 Dar es Salaam www.mkukinanyota.com
Les Caiers d’Afrique de l’Est, n° 38, May – August 2008
Directeur de la publication Cief Editor Bernard CALAS
Directeur adjoint Deputy Editor Jérôme LAFARGUE
Rédaction Editorial Judie-Lynn RABAR
Avis
Les Caiers d’Afrique de l’Estle statut de « Travaux et Documents ont » de l’IFRA. Les textes proposés n’ont pas été soumis à un comité de lecture. L’IFRA n’est pas responsable des prises de position des auteurs. L’objectif des Caiers est de diffuser rapidement informations sur travaux de recerce ou documents, sur lesquels le lecteur exercera son esprit critique.
Notice
Les Caiers d’Afrique de l’Est ave te status of IFRA Working Papers. he articles publised ave not been subject to a peer review process. he opinions expressed witin te articles are solely te responsibility of te autors. he aim ofLes Caiers is to rapidly disseminate information on researc work, on wic te reader may pass is own judgment.
CONTENTS
Introduction............................................................................................... 1 A country in suspense: Political fallouts and popular anxiety Jérôme Lafargue..................................................................................... 3 Kenya in turmoil: Post-election violence and precarious pacification Jérôme LafargueandMusambayi Katumanga........................................ 13
PART I: THE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN
“Kibaki Tena?” he callenges of a campaign Anne Cussac........................................................................................ 35 Caugt between information and condemnation: he Kenyan media in te electoral campaigns of December 2007 Brice Rambaud.................................................................................... 55 he electoral campaign on television: Communication strategies and models of democracy Florence Brisset-Foucault.................................................................... 105 he polling debate in Kenya’s 2007 elections Patrick Mutai.................................................................................. 145
PART II: VIOLENCE IN THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD
From rigging to violence: Mapping of political regression Bernard Calas.................................................................................... 165 Revisiting post-election violence Hervé Maupeu................................................................................... 187 he economic consequences of te political crisis Ronan Porel..................................................................................... 225 Institutional sortfalls and a political crisis Anne Cussac...................................................................................... 251
he role of religious institutions Hervé Maupeu................................................................................... 279 he uman rigts civil society: Social powerlessness and te quest for political legitimacy Dominique Connan........................................................................... 309 Elected leaders, militias and propets: Violence in Mount Elgon (2006–2008) Claire Médard................................................................................... 339
PART III: FINAL REMARKS
Key issues in disentangling te Kenyan crisis: Evictions, autoctony and land privatization Claire Médard................................................................................... 365 Guidelines for contributors .................................................................... 382
INTRODUCTION
his book is a translation of a special issue of IFRA’s journalLes Caiers d’Afrique de l’Est, n°37, and of a collection of articles from Politique africaine, n°109. hese bot focused on te General Elections in Kenya at te end of 2007. he on-site presence of several researcers (Bernard Calas, Anne Cussac, Dominique Connan, Musambayi Katumanga, Jérôme Lafargue, Patrick Mutai), fieldwork carried out by oters between December 2007 and February 2008 (Florence Brisset-Foucault, Ronan Porel, Brice Rambaud), as well as a good knowledge of te country by researcers on regular visits (Claire Médard, Hervé Maupeu), were all ingredients tat led to te production of undreds of pages witin a limited period. hese articles were actually publised in April 2008. Some political information as not been updated but tis canges noting in terms of te initial aim of taking into account and analyzing te events tat set te country on fire for several weeks.
However, since April 2008, te situation—to all intents and purposes—stabilized. he coalition government took sape, wit Mwai Kibaki remaining President wile Raila Odinga became te Prime Minister as an appeasement Neverteless. Noting as been decided yet—far from it—and no one is fooled by tis ill-matced coupling. he government’s prevarications on sensitive issues (employment, land, internally displaced people, rising prices) and te recently discovered serious corruption incidents do not elp to maintain a climate of confidence. Witin te two main political party formations, tere is great tension and it cannot be said for a fact tat tese structures will prevail to te end of te year. Wereas some ministers engage in fierce battles for powerful positions witin teir party, oters do not esitate to declare temselves as candidates for te next presidential elections. his remains te main callenge—wo will take over te reins from