Towards Sustainable Security: Alternatives to the War on Terror

Rogers Paul

Description

The Iraq War shows no sign of ending, NATO is progressively more mired in conflict in Afghanistan, and the al-Qaida movement has established safe havens in western Pakistan while being seen once again as a major threat.



In light of this, the new Oxford Research Group international security report questions current policies and argues for the adoption of sustainable security as the underlying approach.



Tackling events in chronological order over the key 2006-07 period, the report offers a clear and compelling account of a 'war on terror' that has gone wrong in every major respect and is in urgent need of a comprehensive re-thinking of the entire outlook.



Comments on earlier editions of the Oxford Research Group International Security Report:

"Incisive, elegant, profound: if you want to understand what happened and why, you should start here." GEORGE MONBIOT

"Paul Rogers is a secular prophet for our trouble age. This analysis should be required reading in the Pentagon." DAVID LLOYN, BBC

"Paul Rogers has proved himself, time and again, to be a dispassionate analyst of events in Iraq … this is a must-read." TOM WALKER, SUNDAY TIMES

Sujets

• Political Science
• Peace

Informations

• Publié par: Pluto Press
• Date de parution: 20 novembre 2007
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781849643979
• Langue: English

Extrait

Towards Sustainable Security

Alternatives to the War on Terror

Oxford Research Group International Security Report 2007

Paul Rogers

Oxford Research Group

First published 2007 by Oxford Research Group Development House, 56–64 Leonard Street, London EC2A 4LT

www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk

Copyright © Oxford Research Group 2007

The right of Paul Rogers to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 9780955284632

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data applied for

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.

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Designed and produced for Oxford Research Group by Chase Publishing Services Ltd, Sidmouth, EX10 9QG, England Printed and bound in the European Union

Contents

Introduction Acknowledgements

 1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.  9. 10. 11.

12. 13. 14.

Turning Point Oil Security and the Iraq War – May 2006 Spring Offensives in Two Wars – June 2006 A Third War – July 2006 The Lebanon Aftermath – August 2006 The Afghan Summer of War – September 2006 Insecurity in Iraq – October 2006 After the US Elections – November 2006 Responding to the Baker Report – December 2006 A Surge in Two Wars? – January 2007 Environment and Development: The Underlying Global Issues – February 2007 Iraq Options and US Politics – March 2007 Four Years On – April 2007 Choices

Notes Index

vi x

1 9 18 26 35 44 53 61 69 77

85 93 101 110

120 132

Introduction

n October 2001, Oxford Research Group published an analysis of the possible responses of the United States m I ilitary response. 1 Such a response was indeed forthcoming, to the 9/11 atrocities, warning of the risks of a robust commencing with the termination of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan as the presumed sponsors of the alQaida movement that was held ultimately responsible for the attacks. By the early months of 2002, the war on terror had been extended beyond a concern with the alQaida movement in two important respects. Firstly, it now included an ‘axis of evil’ of states such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea who were believed to be sponsoring terrorism and developing weapons of mass destruction. Secondly, President Bush made it clear that early intervention, including regime termination, was a responsible policy for the United States to follow, given threats to its security. By late 2002 it was apparent that the Bush administration was preparing for regime termination in Iraq, and Oxford Research Group published a further report on the possible consequences of such an operation –Iraq: Consequences of a 2 War. This report pointed to the likely impact of an occupation of Iraq on regional antagonism to the United States extending even to increased support for the alQaida movement, and also pointed to the risk of a developing insurgency. Within two months of the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime it was apparent that early expectations of a rapid transition to peace in Iraq would not be realised, the situation in Afghanistan

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INTRODUCTION

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was becoming problematic and the alQaida movement was continuing to be active in many countries, including attacks in the 2002–03 period in Pakistan, Tunisia, Yemen, Indonesia, Kenya, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. In these circumstances, Oxford Research Group commenced a series of International Security Monthly Briefings in May 2003, that were intended to analyse the major developments in the ‘war on terror’, while endeavouring to put these developments in a longterm context. These are currently published in English and Spanish. The core of the present volume, the fourth in a series of annual reports, comprises those briefings produced from May 2006 to April 2007. It analyses what was essentially the fourth year of the Iraq War, while also discussing the evolving conflict in Afghanistan, increasing tensions with Iran, incidents of paramilitary violence related to the alQaida movement, developments in US, British and coalition military postures, and the wider global security environment including the potential impact of resource conflicts and climate change. The briefings are reproduced here with a minimum of editing, this being confined to minor matters of grammatical improvement or the avoidance of repetition. They are placed in context in the first chapter with a review of developments prior to May 2006, and detailed endnotes are provided for the individual monthly analyses. There is then a final chapter that places the year from May 2006 to April 2007 in a longerterm context. The 2006 report focused on the transition from a terminology of a ‘war on terror’ to a ‘long war’, with the latter phrase suggesting that the post9/11 global security environment is likely to take the form of an enduring conflict, principally with the alQaida movement, stretching well beyond a decade. This year’s report takes into account the further major problems experienced by the United States and its coalition partners, including the increased unpopularity of the war in the United States and the

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TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE SECURITY

resignation of Tony Blair as Prime Minister in Britain. It then examines the potential for major changes in the approach to the war on terror, embracing the idea of sustainable security. Finally, it explores whether such an approach would also be of more value in responding to longerterm global issues such as the widening socioeconomic divide and climate change.

Acknowledgements

xford Research Group gratefully acknowledges the support of the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, our O many supporters and sustainers for helping to make the the PoldenPuckham Charitable Foundation and publication of this book possible. I would like to thank the Director of Oxford Research Group, Professor John Sloboda, and members of staff for assistance and ideas in the production of this annual report, especially Chris Abbott for his work in ensuring the production and distribution of the monthly analyses that form a core part of this report. The origins of the annual reports lie with Dr Scilla Elworthy who originally proposed the idea of analytical briefings for Oxford Research Group following the start of the Iraq War in 2003, and their development has been aided by a number of discussions hosted by Gabrielle Rifkind and other members of the Group. More generally I would like to thank the many scores of people who have contributed indirectly to this report, including those who have responded to individual analyses in their English and Spanish versions.

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Paul Rogers August 2007

1 Turning Point

he 2005 and 2006 editions of this annual report focused primarily on the evolution of the global war on terror, T more recently termed by the Bush administration ‘the long war against Islamofascism’. This was in the context of the original response to the 9/11 attacks that had involved a robust and extensive series of military operations beginning with the termination of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan followed by a second regime termination in Iraq. The tough actions of the Bush administration were themselves seen as a consequence of an international security paradigm that stemmed partly from the rise of neoconservative influence in the United States before and after the Bush administration came to power. The conduct of the war on terror was open to question in 2006, given that aspects of the war were simply not going according to expectations. Far from being in retreat, the loose alQaida movement remained effective, with considerable influence in West Pakistan, a growing presence in Iraq, and more support across much of the Middle East and South West Asia, this adding to a pervasive antiAmericanism that stretched to much of the majority world. In Afghanistan the security situation remained deeply problematic, with NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mired in conflict with a resurgent Taliban, especially in Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The situation was made more difficult by an increase in opium poppy cultivation, with consequent flows of illicit

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TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE SECURITY

finances into the country. It was also compounded by many incidents of civilians killed in air strikes, especially by US aircraft operating under the terms of Operation Enduring Freedom, the US counterinsurgency campaign in southeastern Afghanistan that remains largely separate from the NATO operation. In Iraq, a bitter and divisive insurgency continued to gather pace, coupled with an increase in sectarian violence and ordinary criminality. Even by early 2006, many tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians had been killed, either by coalition military operations or sectarian conflict, and the United States itself was losing 200–300 troops killed each month. This enduring conflict contrasted markedly with the original expectation that, after regime termination, Iraq would move rapidly to a stable free market economy under a government that was closely allied to the United States and utilised US expertise and advice in most sectors of the economy. In spite of all of these issues, the 2006 report was deliberately entitledInto the Long Waron the grounds that, by the middle of that year, there was little sign of any major change in policy. The coalition of states supporting the Bush admin istration had certainly declined and there was evidence of a decrease in domestic support for the war, but the administra tion was consistent in linking operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere to the original 9/11 attacks and it believed, in particular, that defeating the insurgency in Iraq was central to the success of the wider war. Even in mid2006, surprise could be expressed at the manner in which the Bush administration was resolute in continuing its military strategy in the face of substantial problems in Iraq and Afghanistan and little evidence of any decrease in the capabilities of the alQaida movement. This can be explained with reference to several factors. One is that President Bush had been reelected in November 2004 with an overall lead over his Democrat opponent in terms of votes cast. Although it was not the most resounding of victories, it was considerably better

TURNING POINT

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than the 2000 result and could therefore be seen as providing a mandate to continue with existing policies. A second factor was that although there was an antiwar movement developing in the United States, it did not have a major focus in the same way as the antiVietnam War movement forty years earlier. It was more disparate and less organised, at least until well into 2006. A third issue was the continuing confidence of neo conservative and assertive realist elements within the Republican Party. There was little hint of the desperation that was to become more evident by early 2007; instead there remained the belief that the vision of a New American Century could still be realised. There was still abundant support for Israel, making it easier to link groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas with some notion of a united Islamofascist front that included alQaida, and the Christian Zionist tendency within US evangelical Christianity remained electorally significant. Much of this changed during the period covered by this report, as will be shown by the monthbymonth analyses that follow. Even so, it is also important to remember that in spite of the changes of the past year, there are two substantive factors that suggest it will be very difficult to envisage a major recon sideration of the mode of the war on terror. One factor applies to the alQaida movement and the other to the United States.

AlQaida Aims and Timescales

The final chapter of last year’s report pointed both to the overall aims of the alQaida movement and to the timescales under which the movement operates. It listed a number of shortterm aims: • Eviction of foreign military forces from the Islamic world, the main emphasis being on western Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia.