Summary of Peter Turchin's Ages of Discord

Everest Media

Description

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book.
Sample Book Insights:
#1 The American Civil War was the first time the American political elites failed to compromise, and it led to the loss of life and land for many. 150 years later, we are seeing the same problems arise among American political elites.
#2 The difference between us and our predecessors is that we are gaining a better understanding of the inner workings of societies. We have better theories and data to help us figure out what makes societies function better, and what causes dysfunction.
#3 Cliodynamics is a historical science that studies the mechanisms that affect the functioning of complex macrosocial systems. It aims to gain a deep understanding of the dynamics and functioning of societies, and use that understanding to solve societal problems.
#4 History has failed to provide useful guidance for public policy. We need theory, which includes general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics of societies and models that are built on these principles.

Sujets

• United States
• Général

Informations

• Publié par: Everest Media LLC
• Date de parution: 10 avril 2022
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781669380597
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Insights on Peter Turchin's Ages of Discord
Contents Insights from Chapter 1 Insights from Chapter 2 Insights from Chapter 3 Insights from Chapter 4 Insights from Chapter 5 Insights from Chapter 6 Insights from Chapter 7 Insights from Chapter 8 Insights from Chapter 9 Insights from Chapter 10 Insights from Chapter 11 Insights from Chapter 12 Insights from Chapter 13 Insights from Chapter 14 Insights from Chapter 15
Insights from Chapter 1

#1

The American Civil War was the first time the American political elites failed to compromise, and it led to the loss of life and land for many. 150 years later, we are seeing the same problems arise among American political elites.

#2

The difference between us and our predecessors is that we are gaining a better understanding of the inner workings of societies. We have better theories and data to help us figure out what makes societies function better, and what causes dysfunction.

#3

Cliodynamics is a historical science that studies the mechanisms that affect the functioning of complex macrosocial systems. It aims to gain a deep understanding of the dynamics and functioning of societies, and use that understanding to solve societal problems.

#4

History has failed to provide useful guidance for public policy. We need theory, which includes general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics of societies and models that are built on these principles.

#5

The long-term dynamics of sociopolitical instability in pre-industrial states are not just random, but follow a pattern that is apparent in Figures 1. 1a and 1. 1b. There are long-term waves of political instability that are interspersed with relatively stable periods.

#6

Secular cycles are also observed in other world regions, such as China with its dynastic cycles, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. They are a general dynamic pattern that is observed in all agrarian states.

#7

The Structural-Demographic Theory states that population growth in excess of the productivity gains of the land leads to persistent price inflation, falling real wages, rural misery, urban migration, and increased frequency of food riots and wage protests.

#8

The Structural-Demographic Theory postulates that there are patterns of relationships between population growth, sociopolitical instability, and economic inequality that are found in case-studies of medieval and early-modern England and France, ancient Rome, and Muscovy-Russia.

#9

The Structural-Demographic Theory states that when the supply of labor exceeds its demand, its price should decrease, which would lead to lower living standards for the majority of the population. This has not been the case in modern societies, however, as the demand for labor is much more dynamic and can change as a result of technological advances, investments in physical and human capital, and growing demand for goods and services.

#10

The law of supply and demand also explains the principle of elite overproduction. As the cost of labor decreases, so does the cost of production, which allows for a favorable economic conjuncture for the elites. This causes the numbers of elites to increase, and upward mobility into the elites will greatly surpass downward mobility.

#11

Elite overproduction, which is caused by the growth in elite appetites and numbers, will lead to a greater proportion of the economic pie being consumed by elites. This will lead to increasing tensions between the masses and the elites.

#12

The demographic-structural theory states that overpopulation, elite overproduction, and the fiscal crisis of the state are the three main causes of a disintegrative trend. Overpopulation leads to popular immiseration and discontent, but as long as the elites remain unified, peasant insurrections, slave rebellions, or worker uprisings have little chance of success.

#13

The SDT is a novel synthetic theory that predicts that a dramatic population decline, such as that which resulted from the Black Death epidemic in 1347–52 in Western Europe, will cause a rise in living standards, cessation of political instability, and resumption of robust population growth.

#14

The book tests the predictions of the Structural-Demographic Theory against the American data. The three theoretical propositions discussed in the previous section are the focus for empirical tests, but not the only theoretical predictions that will be addressed.
Insights from Chapter 2

#1

The structural-demographic theory states that societies are made up of three main compartments: the general population, the elites, and the state. The dynamics of each component are affected by other structural-demographic variables.

#2

Elite composition is the relative number of established elites, new elites, aspirant elites, and counter-elites. It is affected by the economic conjuncture, the number of elites, and state expenditure.

#3

There are two approaches to modeling complex systems: focusing on the short- and medium-term dynamics of a particular variable, and constructing dynamically complete models with the purpose of investigating long-term dynamics of the system.

#4

I begin with a model that seeks to understand the genesis of secular instability waves. Next, I develop a cultural evolution model for trend reversals in social mood. I am interested in the factors that underlie the increase or decrease in the frequency of social cooperation norms.