Baseball Prospectus 2012

Description

The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business

The essential guide to the 2012 baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy player—or both—you won't be properly informed without it. Baseball Prospectus 2012 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team.

• Contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams
• Projects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model" (Sports Illustrated)
• From Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball

Now in its seventeenth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.
Foreword vii
Ken Tremendous

Preface ix
King Kaufman and Cecilia M. Tan

Statistical Introduction xi
Colin Wyers

Teams

Arizona Diamondbacks 1

Atlanta Braves 19

Baltimore Orioles 37

Boston Red Sox 54

Chicago Cubs 71

Chicago White Sox 88

Cincinnati Reds 105

Cleveland Indians 122

Colorado Rockies 138

Detroit Tigers 155

Houston Astros 172

Kansas City Royals 192

Los Angeles Angels 211

Los Angeles Dodgers 228

Miami Marlins 249

Milwaukee Brewers 266

Minnesota Twins 282

New York Mets 301

New York Yankees 318

Oakland Athletics 336

Philadelphia Phillies 351

Pittsburgh Pirates 367

St. Louis Cardinals 385

San Diego Padres 401

San Francisco Giants 419

Seattle Mariners 434

Tampa Bay Rays 451

Texas Rangers 469

Toronto Blue Jays 484

Washington Nationals 501

The Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects 517
Kevin Goldstein

Team Name Codes 527

PECOTA Leaderboards 530

Contributors 535

Acknowledgments 538

Index 540

Sujets

• Sport
• Baseball
• Sports collectifs
• Béisbol
• Ligue majeure de baseball
• Recreation
• Major League Baseball
• Grandes Ligas de Béisbol
• Sports

Informations

• Publié par: Turner Publishing Company
• Date de parution: 08 février 2012
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781118197691
• Langue: English

Extrait

Baseball Prospectus
2012
Baseball Prospectus

2012

THE ESSENTIAL GUIDE TO THE 2012 BASEBALL SEASON
EDITED BY KING KAUFMAN AND CECILIA M. TAN
R.J. Anderson • Bradley Ankrom • Tommy Bennett Craig Brown • Derek Carty • Jason Collette • Cliff Corcoran Jeff Euston • Ken Funck • Rebecca Glass • Steven Goldman Kevin Goldstein • Gary Huckaby • Jay Jaffe • Christina Kahrl King Kaufman • Ben Lindbergh • Sam Miller • Rob McQuown Marc Normandin • Jason Parks • Cecilia M. Tan • Colin Wyers Geoff Young

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Copyright © 2012 by Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. All rights reserved

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Published simultaneously in Canada

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, [phone], fax [phone], or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, [phone], fax [phone], or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions .

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and the author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information about our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at [phone], outside the United States at [phone] or fax [phone].

ISBN 978-0-470-62207-0 (paper); ISBN 978-1-118-19768-4 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-19769-1 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-19770-7 (ebk)

Printed in the United States of America
CONTENTS
Foreword, Ken Tremendous
Preface, King Kaufman and Cecilia M. Tan
Statistical Introduction, Colin Wyers
Teams
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Oakland Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals
The Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects, Kevin Goldstein
Team Name Codes
PECOTA Leaderboards
Contributors
Acknowledgments
Index
Foreword
Ken Tremendous
Welcome Address
Society for Aphorism and Conjecture Research, Education Division (SACRED)
March 14, 2022
Lazy Journalists, Conventional Wisdom Spouters, Augurers, and Research-Hating, Cliché-Spewing Hacks: Welcome.
SACRED was founded 10 years ago with one mission: to reclaim baseball from the anti-American geeks who sought to destroy the game we love by pointing out that the things we said about it were wrong. And make no mistake—at that time, in early 2012, they were winning.
Back then, in 2012, the world was divided into two camps. On one side: people who relied on their eyes, and their gut instincts, to tell us who was good at baseball and who was bad. We took the perfectly reasonable stance that people should accept the things that they were told when they were children and never doubt their validity. Questioning dogma was pointless and rude, we thought, and had no place in baseball journalism.
On the other side were a bunch of twerps who “proved” that we were “wrong” by using so-called “numbers” that they “wrote down” and “casually pointed at” while “explaining what they meant.”
And somehow, back in 2012, those twerps were winning . Batting average was being replaced by “OPS.” Poetic musings on Derek Jeter’s calm eyes and intangible leadership were being drowned out by ad hominem claims about his complete lack of lateral mobility. Everyone stopped watching Around the Horn. Things were spiraling out of control.
But today, just a decade later, the world is a very different place. Those geeks have gone scuttling back to their caves, and SACRED stands victorious. Our membership has swelled into the millions. Our influence is felt across all media platforms and in every major-league front office. Today, thanks to our hard work, America is free from the tyranny of “science” and “analysis” and “information.” And, most importantly, we are finally free from “nerds.”
[Hold for applause.]
Just to recap some of our most recent accomplishments:
*By Federal law, “wins” is now the only criterion by which the Hall of Fame election committee may judge pitchers—and all current members are up for review. Out: Bert Blyleven. In: Jack Morris. (And yes, we know Blyleven had more wins than Morris, but Morris had one that counted.)
*Likewise, batters can only be judged by Batting Average, RBIs, Amount of Hustling, Postseason Success, and Overall Leadership Abilities. Let’s all say a special welcome to the Hall of Fame Class of 2021: Tommy Herr, Mark Lemke, and Juan Pierre.
*“Guts” is now an official statistic. Congratulations to 2021 Guts champion Darin Erstad, who, though he has been retired for a long time, once punted for the football team at Nebraska, and brought that football mentality to the park every time he played, back when he played, so he wins the Guts Award for the 10th year in a row. Let’s go ahead and rename it the Darin Erstad Guts Award.
*There must be, by Commissioner Decree, a life-size statue of David Eckstein outside every major league baseball stadium. You twerps never appreciated him enough when he was playing. Now you have to.
*As per the wishes of SACRED founding member John Kruk, “not hot-dogging” is now an official criterion for Hall of Fame consideration.
*Teams are now awarded between one and three extra runs per game based on how dirty their uniforms are. And all sacrifice bunts are worth three Tradition Points.
*Dusty Baker is the president of the United States.
[Hold for applause. Wave to President Dusty.]
The man who popularized “clogging up the basepaths” as a way to describe average-speed hitters successfully getting on base, ladies and gentlemen. Sir, it’s an honor to have you here.
This is truly a golden age for our movement. No longer do we have to suffer the indignity of having our beliefs and discussions dissected and attacked by the whiny blogger class. Those blogger types are all gone. Do you know where they are? I have a guess. I bet you anything they’re in—
[Everyone in unison, probably]
—their mothers’ basements!
So: How did we get here?
How did we reclaim the soul of baseball from those Ivy League twits who cared more about numbers and stats than the taste of a good hot dog . . . who would rather do research than sit in the bleachers at Wrigley and drink a cold one with their dad, who is teaching them wisdom . . . who cared more about learning things and understanding them than they did about autographs and stickball and bringing your mitt to the game and SmartBall and hustling?
It all began back in the spring of 2012, with the eradication of the Baseball Prospectus annual.
Baseball Prospectus—even the name is nerdy—was a collective of horrifying egghead twits who actively hated baseball. They sought nothing less than the complete destruction of our way of life and the game we love; they wanted to reduce it to column after column of cold, heartless numbers.
Every year, more and more people became aware of, and were brainwashed by, their mathematics-based fandom. Just as one example: In 2007 their so-called PECOTA model predicted that the White Sox, who’d won 90 games in 2006, would fall all the way to 72 wins—and many people believed them! I guess they forgot about a little thing called “heart.” (That the White Sox won exactly 72 games in 2007 is irrelevant. The point is, it was a ridiculous prediction.)
A few years later, we witnessed the absurd crowning of Felix Hernandez as the 2010 AL Cy Young Award Winner despite the fact that he only had 13 wins, (an indignity that has since been reversed, as the award was retroactively stripped from Hernandez and properly given to 21 game-winner C.C. Sabathia).
Reeling from these absurd indignities, a group of like-minded heroes formed SACRED, an organization whose sole purpose was to protect baseball from absurd, Godless, and un-American activities. SACRED launched a full-on assault against the insidious creep of statistics-based analysis, which had continued to insinuate itself into mainstream baseball, unabated. Specifically, we targeted the tip of the nerd spear: Baseball Prospectus itself.
Late one night, several SACRED agents raided a warehouse and destroyed every extant copy of the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual—a yearly rallying point for their cause. By destroying it, we denied their loyal soldiers their most dangerous weapon: analyzed data. And their reign of terror began to wane.
The dominoes fell quickly. Sta