Mobility Revolution

Lukas Neckermann

Description

We stand at the cusp of a mobility revolution unlike anything we have seen since the days of Gottlieb Daimler and Henry Ford, 130 years ago. Three massively significant and converging automotive trends - electrification, self-driving technology and car-sharing - will together transform the way we live, work, and move about in our increasingly urban environment.This book coins the term 'Mobility Revolution' and is a summary of the 'three zeroes' that are already defining the future for the automobile industry: Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents and Zero Ownership. The impact will go beyond the automotive industry and its suppliers - urban infrastructure, construction, logistics - and even local cafs will need to think and operate differently. Based on countless interviews, the book is highly current and thoroughly researched, whilst also fun to read. It is an eye-opener to the new world that awaits us as the Mobility Revolution unfolds.The Mobility Revolution is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of the automobile industry, our cities, and the way we live.

Sujets

• Service innovation

Informations

• Publié par: Troubador Publishing Ltd
• Date de parution: 12 décembre 2018
• Nombre de lectures: 1
• EAN13: 9781784628871
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Lukas Neckermann
The Mobility Revolution
Zero Emissions
Zero Accidents
Zero Ownership
Copyright © 2015 Lukas Neckermann.
The moral right of the author has been asserted.
Updated and reprinted August 2015
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.
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eISBN 978 1784628 871
Cover design by Nils Poschwatta.
Visit: www.nilsposchwatta.de Edited by Richard Lane For more information, please visit www.threezeroes.com
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Matador® is an imprint of Troubador Publishing Ltd
Disclaimer
No part of this book can be transmitted or reproduced in any form including print, electronic, photocopying, scanning, mechanical, or recording without prior written permission from the author.
Due to the highly topical nature of this book and rapidly evolving technology, no assumption of accuracy can be made beyond the date of the first publication. While the author has taken utmost measures to ensure the accuracy of the written content, all readers are advised to follow information herein at their own risk. The author cannot be held responsible for any personal or financial damage caused by misinterpretation or obsolescence of information.
The author has conducted all interviews unless otherwise noted. Quotes, facts and excerpts in this book have been gathered independently by the author and, where applicable, are cited under fair-use principles. In these cases the citations remain the copyright of the original author. Where no source is explicitly noted, the quote, fact or excerpt has been verified across multiple media.
Contents
Introduction
Chapter 1: The Future of Mobility
The Three Zeroes
How Ownership is Passé!
Nudge Theory Toward the Three Zeroes
What the Future Will Look Like As We Head Toward the Three Zeroes
Bicycles in the Mobility Revolution
Commercial Incentives
Changing Demographics
How Wise is Buying a Car After All?
Urbanization, Efficiency and Licensing
Isn’t There a Better Solution?
Seamless Mobility, a Finnish Model?
Chapter 2: Zero Emissions
Air Pollution is Killing Us
A Message from Above
The Contribution of Cars
Energy Dependence and the Governmental Imperative to Support Innovation
Electrification as the Solution
Sourcing Energy
The Electric Car, Part One: Energy Storage and Range Anxiety
Tesla and Energy Storage
The Electric Car, Part 2: Infrastructure
The Scope of Electric Cars in Our World
Challenges to Widespread Adoption
Is it Urgent?
Alternatives to Batteries
Electric Vehicle Racing – in Support of Positive Public Perception
Chapter 3: Zero Accidents
Human-Driven Cars: Killing Machines in Disguise
Value-Proposition: Time, Efficiency and Enablement
An Overview of the Future Car, Today
How Demographic Trends Support Autonomy
So How Long Will it Take and What Will the Impact Be?
Who is on board?
Economic Benefits of Implementing the Technology
Impact on Productivity
A Technology that Mimics Human Senses
Testing and Investing
Legal Limitations
Asimov’s Rules of Robotics, 1942
Chapter 4: Zero Ownership
Is Ownership Foolish?
Car-sharing Models
The Broader Ambitions of Uber et al.
The Hopeless Battle Against Uber and Lyft
Driving, but Not Owning
Consequences for the Automobile Industry
Zero Ownership and Auto Design
Which Model, Which Time?
Security and Safety – Hurdles and Opportunity
Will Zero Ownership Make Us a Closer-knit Society?
Chapter 5: Outlook and Impact of the Three Zeroes
The Automotive Industry: Losing the War for Talent
Kodak, Smith Corona and The Innovator’s Dilemma Within Automobile Companies
BYD, Tesla and the Threat Beyond Automotive
Cities and Public Infrastructure, Reinvented
Construction and Infrastructure: The Aftermath
Logistics gets Logical
Financial Services for the Three Zeroes Economy
Three Zeroes Take to the Sky
Conclusion
Thank you
About the Author and Editor
Introduction
I thoroughly enjoy driving. Few things fill me with the same sense of bliss and freedom as piloting a roadster along a twisting mountain road on a sunny day. In reality, however, this type of driving has become infrequent for city-dwellers like me. It is not without regret that I admit this is likely a good thing.
As a consultant and entrepreneur with a sizable carbon footprint, clearly my credentials and interests in this area are more capitalist than environmental. Nevertheless, old-school transportation progressively fills me with doubt and guilt. It is inefficient, destructive of our planet and a disservice to generations to come. Having lost a loved one to an automobile accident, my tolerance of the avoidable fatality rate on the world’s roads has also evaporated. I know that I am not alone in this, but part of a mind-shift that’s sparking a new revolution in mobility.
We are on the cusp of a transformation very much akin to the Industrial and Internet revolutions. This book will outline the three key forces of this new revolution. Naturally, it’s futile to make concrete predictions on where, when and to what extent changes will take place, but I assure you they will happen sooner than we think. I will begin to paint a picture of our world after the Three Zeroes have taken effect. Just as the Internet altered far more than merely how we communicate, the impacts of the Mobility Revolution will be felt more widely than in solely the automobile industry.
The benefits of the Mobility Revolution will be on par with finding a cure for AIDS, with more than one million lives saved each year from prevented vehicle accidents. It goes beyond this, however. Seven million lives are lost each year because of pollution, which suggests that, given current urbanization trends, the Three Zeroes will eventually lead to billions of lives improved by reductions in emissions and improvements in air quality.
Economically speaking, the waste from underutilized vehicle assets, infrastructure, city spaces and time is in the trillions, regardless of currency. This development will also begin to be addressed by the Three Zeroes.
The book you’re holding isn’t meant to be a comprehensive, technical dissection of the automotive world. Instead, it is intended to provoke discussion, guide decisions and perhaps encourage investment in our new future of mobility. After reading it, I hope you’ll agree that the Mobility Revolution can’t come soon enough.
Lukas Neckermann, November 2014
Chapter 1:
The Future Of Mobility
There is considerable logic in eliminating humans from the driving equation.
Thirty years ago we watched a fictional Michael Knight call his self-driving Pontiac Trans Am sports car, KITT, via his wristwatch. KITT then drove the heroic agent autonomously to his destination.
While the storyline (and acting) in Knight Rider remains dubious – and the Pontiac brand meanwhile is history – Hollywood’s technological vision of the future today no longer appears absurd. It is not a leap of faith and imagination any more for us to have speech recognition in our wristwatches, cars that navigate themselves and dialogue between vehicles on the street – technologies that will in due course give us the choice of being driven by our cars. Spending fruitless, frustrated hours behind the wheel, dodging other cars, cursing at bad drivers, getting lost and polluting the environment will be going the way of Pontiac in just a few years.
If we believe that technology exists to make our lives easier and to increase efficiency, then the future of mobility is about removing three key sources of inefficiency and nuisance from the driving equation. That means doing away with combustion engines, human operation and vehicle ownership.
The Three Zeroes
To outline why we stand at the cusp of the Mobility Revolution, let me first provide an overview of where the road is taking us and briefly explain the concept of Three Zeroes, before delving into greater detail in the coming chapters. (The final chapter of the book will focus on the impacts of the Mobility Revolution on the automobile industry and other sectors of our economy.)
Zero emissions. Most of us have become familiar with the sociopolitical and environmental factors that are leading toward a carbon-conscious society. Global warming is at an alarmingly high level and consequently there are pressures from consumers and governments to slash vehicle emissions.
Big industry, and particularly the auto industry, is being blamed for the emissions that poison our planet, destroy the atmosphere and trigger natural disasters with apparently increasing frequency. Putting aside a discussion on the magnitude of impact from vehicles, and disregarding a handful of mistaken global-warming cynics in the US, the common consensus is that human behaviour – especially in relation to our transportation needs – is at the source of our environmental ills.
Governments (both state and national), international nongovernmental organizations, manufacturers and the public at large have more or less bought into the desire to reduce emissions, albeit with varying levels of commitment and differing tools. But whatever the target or whichever incentive or penalty is used, the automobile industry stands before a