Preparing for a Property Upturn

Ku Swee Yong

Description

The property market goes through cycles, and an investor needs to understand market conditions for a balanced view on opportunities and risks. But how can one sift through the noise and formulate a clear strategy? Respected market analyst and fifth-time author Ku Swee Yong looks at market trends, explains the impact of government policies and dispels common misconceptions. The lead articles delve into how the residential sector will be affected by the ageing population and the expiry of many HDB flats' 99-year lease, and offer suggestions for the Concept Plan 2021. Others sketch out how the property landscape will be affected by changes in the retail scene, the adoption of FinTech, the rise of co-working & co-living spaces. Preparing for a Property Upturn provides an exciting overview of the current and future real estate issues. Whether you are seeking local or regional prospects, investors and market practitioners alike will benefit from perspectives which are backed by extensive data and research.

Sujets

• Employabilité, métiers et formations
• Singapore
• Singapour

Informations

• Publié par: Marshall Cavendish International
• Date de parution: 15 septembre 2017
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9789814794107
• Langue: English

Extrait

Reviews for Preparing for a Property Upturn
In an environment where general consensus dictates collective behaviour, it s always good to get another perspective on the issues of the day. Ku Swee Yong s contrarian views on topical issues are always refreshing and revealing. As a panelist at STORM.SG events, his candid views have been eye-opening and engaging, making him a clear favourite among attendees.
It s not just for effect. Swee Yong draws upon a wellspring of information to back his points.
Here, his fearless approach to calling a spade a spade, ensures that you get a good understanding of issues so you can make more informed decisions. In an era when fake news comes at you from too many quarters, Swee Yong s brutal honesty is something that will give you a better understanding of the challenges ahead.
It s a tough world, and it s only going to get tougher. So, it s time to toughen up. It s better to have the bitter medicine than to be loaded with syrup (which might result in diabetes).
- KANNAN CHANDRAN Publisher, STORM.SG Magazine
Singapore after celebrating its 50th nation building anniversary will face greater challenges in the next 50 years. Swee Yong s new book Preparing For A Property Upturn is timely to address some of these issues. The book is packed with data analysis and considers issues such as demography, medical care, government policies and the need to move with new technologies; these are issues close to my heart.
- LOW SOO HIOK Investor and retired banker
This book reaffirms the author s standing as one of the great lucid thinkers of Asian real estate developments. His restless intellectualism dissects the most important macro-forces without fear, his eye for detail leaves no stone unturned. Most impressively, Swee Yong distils all that complexity into simple actionable steps, and delivers them in engagingly conversational prose. A genuine master in his element.
- JEREMY SIM Economist Managing Partner, Aurora Media
I have seen Swee Yong in action, providing advice to some of the wealthiest families in Asia, and I have always admired his in-depth analysis that delves into important details that few analysts ever recognise. Discussing excessive investments into aircon ledges and dissecting government data is something only Swee Yong is capable of. This book demonstrates the need for quality, smart research that is so lacking in today s world of fast, catchy headlines.
- JEFFERY SUNG Senior director in a private bank
PREPARING FOR A PROPERTY UPTURN
TRENDS AND PITFALLS IN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS
KU SWEE YONG
2017 Ku Swee Yong
Published by Marshall Cavendish Business
An imprint of Marshall Cavendish International

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No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Requests for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Private Limited, 1 New Industrial Road, Singapore 536196. Tel: [phone] E-mail: [e-mail]
Website: www.marshallcavendish.com/genref
The publisher makes no representation or warranties with respect to the contents of this book, and specifically disclaims any implied warranties or merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose, and shall in no event be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
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Marshall Cavendish is a registered trademark of Times Publishing Limited
National Library Board, Singapore Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
Name(s): Ku, Swee Yong.
Title: Preparing for a property upturn : trends and pitfalls in real estate investments / Ku Swee Yong.
Description: Singapore : Marshall Cavendish Business, 2017
Identifier(s): OCN 1001516238 | ISBN 978-981-47-7991-3 (paperback) | eISBN 978-981-4794-10-7 Subject(s): LCSH: Real estate investment-Singapore. | Real estate investment-Singapore-Forecasting. | Real estate investment-Government policy-Singapore.
Classification: DDC 332.6324095957-dc23
Printed in Singapore by Markono Print Media Pte Ltd.
In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
(A quote usually attributed to George Orwell, but the exact source has not been determined.)
CONTENTS
Preface
PART 1: Looking into Singapore s Future
1 Nearing the Edge of the Precipice: Ageing Population and the Housing Market
2 Facing the 99-Year Leasehold Chasm of Public Housing
3 Concept Plan 2021: What s Next for Singapore s Built Environment?
4 Makeshift Patching Will Not Fix Defects in the Singapore Property Market
5 Singaporeans Are Ageing Fast: Let s Get Planning
6 Recycling Tanglin Halt
PART 2: Observations on the Residential Market
7 Market Watchers Expecting Slashed Prices Will Be Waiting for Godot
8 The Case of Disappearing Households
9 No Lack of Space for 10 Million Population
10 Time to Take Action on Real Estate Policies
11 Drop in Private Housing Vacancy Rate Confounds
12 From Scarcity Comes Bargaining Power
13 Counting the Love for Aircon Ledges in Dollars
14 Helping First-Timer Families While Hindering Entrepreneurship
PART 3: Developments in the Commercial Market
15 Office Space: Where Do We Go From Here?
16 FinTech and the Decline of Office Sector
17 Retail Slump: When Will It Recover?
18 Retail Woes: Don t Blame the Landlords
19 Two Pills for Orchard Road s Ills
PART 4: From an Insider s Perspective
20 Hotspots: What s with All the Media Hype?
21 The Big Singapore Market Upgrade?
22 Exposing the Patterns of Dodgy Property Agents
23 Self-Service Potholes
24 Should I Set Up a Company to Buy Singapore Property?
PART 5: Venturing Further Afield
25 Ganbatte Japan!
26 Why Not Malaysia?
27 Focus on Regional Bread-and-Butter Housing Products
About the Author
PREFACE
The world has seen unprecedented and HUGE changes since I wrote the preface of my last book, Weathering a Property Downturn , in January 2016:
UK decided to pull out of the European Union;
Donald Trump became the President of the U.S.;
Early initiatives of China s Belt Road Initiative were realised, altering the trade, economic and political alignments of dozens of countries;
Technology blowing winds of major disruptions;
The world waking up to fake news; and
Singapore standing at the crossroads of these changes.
What has not changed is my call on the Singapore property market: that prices will continue to trend down due to an abundance of floor space available that is not going to be matched by demand. My call for a downturn in the Singapore property market started in late 2013.
Being the first in the market to call the downturn, I was considered by most to be too bearish at that time. But my reading of the market has been spot on: the private residential price index has declined for 15 consecutive quarters since 3Q2013 and the total number of vacant private residences and Executive Condominiums increased by 73%, from 18,707 units in 3Q2013 to 32,419 units in 2Q2017.
The oversupply of space in the office, retail and industrial segments has also led to high vacancies and declining rentals in the last three years.
That vacancy is difficult to fill and will, in fact, expand given that job creation has gone negative in the first half of 2017. Singapore lost more than 17,000 jobs (excluding Foreign Domestic Workers) as the economy grapples with weakness in the Oil Gas, Offshore Marine and Construction industries, as well as having jobs made irrelevant by technology. If employment continues to contract, who will occupy these vacant homes?
In this book, I will elaborate on these upcoming problems and offer potential solutions.
As for my personal journey, the last one and a half years since publishing Weathering a Property Downturn have been a very fulfilling one. I had been on a learning journey, both as a student and as a teacher.
After being appointed by the Singapore Estate Agents Association (SEAA) to be a trainer for a course titled Marketing of Overseas Properties in Singapore , I was required to attend a course to further qualify me as a trainer. As a part-time student, I found the Advanced Certificate for Training and Assessment (ACTA) course at the Institute for Adult Learning rather challenging. Having two very dedicated and well-qualified teachers, Mr Bryan Tan and Ms Loh Miew Ling, helped a lot. And I was fortunate to have nine very lively and clever classmates who contributed significantly to my learning: Denise Ng, Dorene Ng, Ellil Mathiyan, Ismail Hussien, Janet Chiew, Mike Ang, Paul Lee, Princeton Peters and Kogularam Naidu.
In the last year, I also had the honour to teach the Real Estate students in the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Ngee Ann Polytechnic (NP) as a part-time lecturer. Answering students questions, thinking about how to get students to understand market research concepts and assessing whether they have learnt well are new challenges for me. Making the information and the sharing sessions meaningful for the students and getting them to relate the lectures to the real world is yet another set of challenges. Our teenagers and young adults have grown up to be fixated with knowledge and concepts that are misplaced or irrelevant in today s context.
For example, one misconception that should be broken in the minds of our young people is the old adage about real