Feeding the World in the 21st Century

Christian Anton Smedshaug

Description

Utilizes a historical understanding of the current global food situation as the basis for analyzing the ultimate challenge on how to feed an ever-expanding world of 10 billion people.

Agriculture has successfully managed to increase production faster than demand for nearly one and a half centuries, and agricultural policy has developed through times of impasse during this period. This book provides and utilizes a historical understanding of the current global food situation as the basis for analyzing the ultimate challenge on how to feed an ever-expanding world of 10 billion people.

Foreword - Niek Koning; Chapter 1: Will Agriculture Succeed?; Chapter 2: Supply and Demand of Agricultural Produce; Chapter 3: Ideas of Agriculture, Trade and Society through Changing Times; Chapter 4: Agriculture and Development - What Do the History Tell?; Chapter 5: Specificities of Agriculture; Chapter 6: Lack of Food Supply; Chapter 7: What Made the Oversupply of Agricultural Products?; Chapter 8: Agriculture’s Role in Development; Chapter 9: Development's Role in Agriculture; Chapter 10: Increased Agricultural Production in Africa; Chapter 11: International Agricultural Trade Policy after WWII; Chapter 12: Agricultural Policy for the 21st Century; Chapter 13: The Challenge of the 21st Century; Chapter 14: Literature

Sujets

• International economics

Informations

• Publié par: Anthem Press
• Date de parution: 15 mai 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780857286727
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 30 Mo

Extrait

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 1 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 05CE5C23 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

Feeding the World in the 21st Century: A Historical Analysis of Agriculture and Society

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 1CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 2 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 0193C91C /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

Kerrypress Ltd aprels g g Sequential 2CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 3 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 0E164433 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

Christian Anton Smedshaug Feeding the World in the 21st Century: A Historical Analysis of Agriculture and Society

Kerrypress Ltd aprels g g Sequential 3CYANMAGENTAYELLOWBLACK

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 4 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 33294766 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

Anthem Press An imprint of Wimbledon Publishing Company

This edition first published in UK and USA 2010 by ANTHEM PRESS 75–76 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8HA, UK or PO Box 9779, London SW19 7ZG, UK and 244 Madison Ave. #116, New York, NY 10016, USA

Part of The Anthem Other Canon Series

First published in Norway by Universitetsforlaget 2008. Copyright © Christian Anton Smedshaug 2010; Foreword © Niek Koning.

English translation by John Irons.

This translation has been published with the financial support of NORLA and Yara Norway.

The moral right of the authors has been asserted.

All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested.

ISBN13: 978 1 84331 867 5 (Pbk) ISBN10: 1 84331 867 9 (Pbk) ISBN13: 978 1 84331 892 7 (eBook) ISBN10: 1 84331 892 X (eBook)

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 4CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 5 SESS: 67 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

OUTPUT: Wed Feb

CONTENTS

3 09:46:33 2010

SUM: 266F63AD

Foreword by Niek Koning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 1 Will agriculture succeed?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The present challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The issues involved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 2 Supply and demand of agricultural products. . . . . . . . Who are the big food producers? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who has a food surplus and who has a deficit? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade with agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Export of agricultural commodities from South to North . . . . . . . . . . The demand for agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oil and agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Biofuel production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Biofuels in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supply – new land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Loss of arable land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kerrypress Ltd aprels g g Sequential 5CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

11

19

23

25 27 31

33 35 41 44 46 47 49 51 53 56 58

CONTENTS

5

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 6 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 3ED558F7 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

6

CONTENTS

Yield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production challenges – disease, water and climate change . . . . . . . . Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The fight over water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate change and agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture may suffer in the South . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supply and demand after the Second World War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prices of temperate commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tropical products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Price increases in the twentyfirst century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The problems of rising prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rapid production increase when prices rise? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Price developments for agricultural products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 3 Ideas about agriculture, trade and society through changing times. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The physiocrats – agriculture as the basis of the economy . . . . . . . . . . Free markets and the balance between town and country . . . . . . . . . Adam Smith – his own age and posterity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International division of labour between agriculture and industry . . . . . Ricardo and agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Consequences of Ricardo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘Infant industries’ and their protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Modern agricultural policies – The New Deal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Countercyclical policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mathematics takes over the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Recent thoughts about trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Neoliberalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Political consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and neoliberalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The closing stages of neoliberalism? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will the theory of free trade fail? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Old clashes, new players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 6CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

59 61 62 64 66 69 71 73 76 77 78 78 82 85 86

91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 103 103 105 106 107 107 109 110 111

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 7 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 44DE0B67

Chapter 4 Agriculture and development – what does history tell us?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Settler countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AngloSaxon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spanish settler countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Plantations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . European differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Primary produce versus industrial commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The role of the state and import controls in the first industrialisation . . Asian miracles – phase two. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Free trade and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 5 The specificities of agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and natural preconditions – ‘the law of diminishing returns’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The social aspect of agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Limited selfregulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and the paradoxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture versus industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 6 Deficit of food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Famine in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grain stores in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The famines decrease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Systemcreated crises in Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hunger – also a consequence of bad systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural commodities and EastWest relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural commodities from the colonies and coal from the ground . India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Asian famine increases the Western lead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Falling hunger mortality – for good? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 7 What created the surplus of food?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The first modern agricultural revolution – the end of the fallow system.

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 7CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

115 116 116 117 119 120 125 129 131 133

135

136 137 140 140 142 145

149 149 151 151 154 155 157 158 161 161 163 163

167 168

CONTENTS

7

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 8 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 46CCC3FB /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

8

CONTENTS

The second agricultural revolution – new land areas . . . . . . . . . . . . The first agricultural crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Political differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Same crisis – different answers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Colonies and feudal conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The third agricultural revolution – industrial fertiliser and fossil fuels . . The second agricultural crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The postwar period – strong growth in production . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1960s: The Green Revolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1970s: Scarcity and new efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1980s: Food surpluses and new exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1990s: A new trade organisation and falling prices . . . . . . . . . . The 2000s: Disagreement as to which path to take and increasing prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The twentyfirst century – New production increase . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 8 The role of agriculture in development. . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture versus industry during development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and the need for capital when developing . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 9 The role of development in agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . The farmer – a cash cow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production – incentives and productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership of land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Land reform – Asia versus Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Profitability – does the worldmarket price increase reach the farmer? . Farmer cooperatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Productivity factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Input factors and credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water and soil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What is the ‘Green Revolution’? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Green Revolution in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Criticisms of the Green Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 10 Increased yields in Africa’s agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . .

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 8CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

170 173 176 177 178 179 181 184 186 187 188 190

191 192

195 196 197 199

201 202 204 205 207 209 210 213 215 216 218 219 221 222

227

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 9 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 3E63594B /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

Africa’s challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A productivity revolution in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Structural adjustment programmes and Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Structural adjustment programmes and agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . What is needed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Africa’s own initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Marshall plan for Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AIDS and agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade first, food later? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cotton exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The effect of concentrating on exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who is going to foot the bill? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The chance of success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 11 International trade agreements after the Second World War. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ITO and GATT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Uruguay Round . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WTO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Doha Round . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Export subsidy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Domestic support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Market access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who is against whom? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Importers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Developed against developing country? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Offensive and defensive national interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Why can’t they agree? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will G20 replace G8? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The effects of reduced agricultural subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What do the economic models say? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 12 Agricultural policies for the 21st century. . . . . . . . . . A new global agricultural policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . National policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production, imports and stockpiling for a secured supply . . . . . . . . .

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 9CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

229 232 234 235 237 241 242 244 245 246 247 249 250

253 256 257 258 259 261 262 263 264 265 266 268 269 270 273 274 277 278

283 285 286 288

CONTENTS

9

JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 10 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 18215D5D /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels

10

CONTENTS

Predictable exports and imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International market regulation for tropical commodities . . . . . . . . . Principles for primary produce agreement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What can netimporters in the North do? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will WTO listen? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 13 The challenge of the 21st century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food production should double . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kerrypress Ltd g aprels g Sequential 10CYANMAGENTAYELLOW

BLACK

291 294 296 296 298

299 301 303

305

315