The Elections of 2020

Description

The Elections of 2020 is a timely, comprehensive, scholarly, and engagingly written account of the 2020 elections. It features essays by an all-star team of political scientists in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 general election, chronicling every stage of the presidential race as well as the coterminous congressional elections, paying additional attention to the role of the media and campaign finance in the process. Broad in coverage and bolstered by tables and figures presenting exit polls and voting results in the primaries, caucuses, and the general election, these essays discuss the consequences of these elections for the presidency, Congress, and the larger political system

ContributorsMarjorie Randon Hershey, Indiana University * Marc J. Hetherington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill * Charles Hunt, Boise State University * Gary C. Jacobson, University of California, San Diego * William G. Mayer, Northeastern University * Nicole Mellow, Williams College * Gerald M. Pomper, Rutgers University * Paul J. Quirk, University of British Columbia * Andrew Rudalevige, Bowdoin College * Candis Watts Smith, Pennsylvania State University

Preface
1. The Setting: Who Can Be President?
2. The Presidential Nominations
3. The Election: The More Things Change
4. Voting: Stabilizing Democracy—and Rehearsing a Realignment?
5. Campaign Finance: Trends and Developments
6. Media and the 2020 Presidential Campaign
7. The Presidency: Recovery, Reform, and Joe Biden
8. Congress: Ever More Partisan, Polarized, and National
9. The Meaning of the 2020 Election: Fundamentally Divided
10. Sixty Years of Elections: From John Kennedy to Joe Biden
Notes on Contributors

Sujets

• Histoire
• Congress
• 21st Century
• United States
• History

Informations

• Publié par: University of Virginia Press
• Date de parution: 15 juin 2021
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780813946191
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 4 Mo

Extrait

THE ELECTIONS OF 2020
Edited by Michael Nelson
University of Virginia Press  •   Charlottesville and London
 
University of Virginia Press
© 2021 by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
First published 2021
9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Nelson, Michael, editor.
Title: The elections of 2020 / Edited by Michael Nelson.
Description: Charlottesville : University of Virginia Press, [2021] | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021058763 (print) | LCCN 2021058764 (ebook) | ISBN 9780813946184 (paperback) | ISBN 9780813946191 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: United States—Politics and government—2017– | Presidents—United States—Election—2020. | Elections—United States—History. | Mass media—Political aspects—United States. | Political campaigns—United States.
Classification: LCC E912 .E44 2021 (print) | LCC E912 (ebook) | DDC 324.973/0905—dc23
LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov /2021058763
LC ebook record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov /2021058764
 
CONTENTS Preface The Setting: Who Can Be President? M ICHAEL N ELSON The Presidential Nominations W ILLIAM G. M AYER The Election: The More Things Change M ARC J. H ETHERINGTON Voting: Stabilizing Democracy—and Rehearsing a Realignment? N ICOLE M ELLOW AND C ANDIS W ATTS S MITH Campaign Finance: Trends and Developments C HARLES R. H UNT Media and the 2020 Presidential Campaign M ARJORIE R ANDON H ERSHEY The Presidency: Recovery, Reform, and Joe Biden P AUL J. Q UIRK Congress: Ever More Partisan, Polarized, and National G ARY C. J ACOBSON The Meaning of the 2020 Election: Fundamentally Divided A NDREW R UDALEVIGE Sixty Years of Elections: From John Kennedy to Joe Biden G ERALD M. P OMPER Notes on Contributors
 
PREFACE
T HE E LECTIONS OF 2020 is the tenth in a series of postelection studies that began in 1985 with The Elections of 1984 . In the midst of endless discussion and debate in the larger political community about what happened in each of these elections and why, the constant purpose of these books has been to bring to bear the deeper and broader perspectives of political scientists.
In nearly all of the previous books in this series, the story of the election ended for all intents and purposes on Election Day in November. Even the one exception—the historically close contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000—was resolved peacefully through a gradual process of recounts and court cases and, once resolved, was gracefully conceded by the loser.
The 2020 presidential election was different. Although Democratic nominee Joseph Biden took the lead as the returns came in on election night, November 3, Republican president Donald J. Trump made a statement claiming, “This is a fraud.… Frankly, we did win this election.” Five days later, when Biden’s victory—by 306–232 in the electoral college and 81 million to 74 million in the national popular vote—was sufficiently indisputable that every major news organization declared him the president-elect, Trump persisted in maintaining that he was the true victor. He incited his supporters: to file lawsuits challenging the results; to disrupt the official casting of the electoral votes in the state capitals on December 14; and then, on January 6, to “march over to the Capitol” and “fight like hell” to prevent the final tallying of the electoral votes by a joint session of Congress. The march degenerated into a violent occupation of the building. Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for “incitement of insurrection” on January 13, 2021, one week before his term expired, and acquitted by the Senate on February 13 when the 57–43 majority for conviction fell ten votes shy of the constitutionally necessary two-thirds majority.
Multiple Republican officials, including the eighteen state attorneys general who filed a lawsuit to overturn the results in six states that Trump carried in 2016 but lost in 2020 and the majority of GOP members of Congress who formally protested the counting of the electoral votes on January 6, participated in Trump’s fact-free campaign to overturn the election. In contrast, multiple Republican state and local election officials, state governors, state legislative leaders, and state and federal judges (including Trump’s three Supreme Court appointees) refused to support their fellow partisans’ efforts to steal the election. On January 20, 2021, Biden was inaugurated as the forty-sixth president of the United States.
Charles Hunt and Candis Watts Smith, the newest contributors to this quadrennial series of postelection studies, were not old enough to read the first book when it was published, thirty-six years ago. With this tenth volume in the series, they join an all-star team of political scientists to bring further insight into modern American politics.
Two members of that team—Paul Quirk (on the presidency) and Gary Jacobson (on Congress)—have been part of it through all ten elections, as have I (on the setting of the election). Others have contributed to previous editions, such as Nicole Mellow (now joined by Smith, on voting), Marc Hetherington (on the general election), and Andrew Rudalevige (on the meaning of the election). Still others have offered their insights for nearly as long to other works before becoming part of this one—William Mayer (on the nominating contests) and Marjorie Hershey (on the media)—or longer—Gerald Pomper (on sixty years of electoral politics). Hunt is a new and welcome addition on the important subject of campaign finance.
At the time of the 1984 volume’s publication, the Republican Party was in the midst of a winning streak that included victories in five of the six presidential elections from 1968 to 1988, with four of those five victories taking the form of landslides. Even so, the Democratic Party maintained equally solid control of Congress throughout this period.
Much clearly has changed in American politics since this series began. For one thing, starting in 1992, Democratic presidential candidates have won five of eight elections. They also won the national popular vote while losing the electoral vote in two of their three defeats (2000 and 2016), the first time such anomalous outcomes had occurred in more than a century. Meanwhile, the Republicans won control of Congress in 1994 and have controlled one or both chambers for all but six years since then.
Divided government—when the president’s party does not also control both the House of Representatives and the Senate—not only has been the normal governing situation in Washington for more than a half century but also has become more consequential. When this series began, enough Democrats in Congress were moderate conservatives and enough Republicans were moderate liberals that a basis for bipartisan cooperation between the branches sometimes could be found. Over time, the movement of southern conservatives into the GOP and northeastern and Pacific coast liberals into the Democratic Party has transformed both parties into ideological monoliths. The creation and proliferation of hyperpartisan cable news networks, websites, and social media has helped harden the lines of division, as has the rise of ideologically charged independent political groups with broad legal license to flood the electoral system with money.
The elections of 2020 manifested all of these developments in the American political system. Although his predecessor as the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, lost the 2016 election to Republican Donald Trump despite winning the national popular vote, Joe Biden managed to win both by carrying all her states while eking out victories in several states she lost, notably Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Biden’s fellow Democrats hung on to a slim majority in the House despite losing several seats, while the Republicans did the same in the Senate.
The Elections of 2020 chronicles and analyzes what happened in 2020 while placing it in broad historical and political context. As in all previous volumes of the series, the authors’ purpose is to shed the focused light of political science on events that may otherwise seem like a diffuse blur of confusing incidents. In every case, the authors’ presentations offer clearly written accounts of complex developments.
As editor and coauthor, I, along with my colleagues, hasten to thank Richard Ellis for his timely and insightful review of the manuscript, and the marvelous team at the University of Virginia Press who shepherded it into print, design, and distribution. In particular, we especially thank the University of Virginia Press’s acquisitions editor Nadine Zimmerli, as well as her associates Helen Chandler and Charlie Bailey; editorial, design, and production staff Ellen Satrom, Anne Hegeman, Cecilia Sorochin, and Niccole Coggins; marketing staff Jason Coleman, Emily Grandstaff, and Emma Donovan; and at Westchester Publishing Services, Deborah Grahame-Smith.
 
The Setting
WHO CAN BE PRESIDENT?
M ICHAEL N ELSON
E VERY FOUR YEARS , candidates, consultants, commentators, and, yes, political scientists proclaim the historic nature of the current presidential election. America stands at a crossroads, we solemnly intone, and our nation is at a critical turning point. Usually we are wrong. Most elections are fairly ordinary affairs. But not the elections of 2020.
As is typical when a president’s first term draws to a close, little suspense attended the Republican Party’s renomination of Donald Trump. But when the field of Democrats seeking to challenge him in 2020 formed, it became clear th