Climate Change in the Midwest

Description

Effective responses to Midwestern climate change

Read an excerpt from the book

The research presented in this volume focuses on identifying and quantifying the major vulnerabilities to climate change in the Midwestern United States. By providing state-of-the-art spatially disaggregated information regarding the historical, current, and possible future climate within the region, the contributors assess the risks and susceptibility of the critical socio-economic and environmental systems. Key sectors discussed are agriculture, human health, water, energy and infrastructure, and the vulnerabilities that may be amplified under current climate trajectories. The book also considers the challenges and opportunities to develop local and regional strategies for addressing the risks posed by climate change in the context of developing an integrative policy for the region.

Table of contents
Chapter 1 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation: An Introduction ....... 9
Chapter 2 The Midwestern USA: Socio-Economic Context and Physical Climate .................... 19
Chapter 3 Vulnerability and Adaptability of Agricultural Systems in the Southeast USA to
Climate Variability and Climate Change .......................................................................... 64
Chapter 4 Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to Global Climate Change .......................... 76
Chapter 5 Climate - Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment for the Midwestern United States .. 86
Chapter 6 Potential Future Impacts of Climate on Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes
Region ............................................................................................................................. 101
Chapter 7 Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in the Midwest to Climate Change .......... 114
Chapter 8 Michigan's Tart Cherry Industry: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
........................................................................................................................................ 129
Chapter 9 Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Health ................................ 147
Chapter 10 Intra-Urban Variations in Vulnerability Associated with Extreme Heat Events in
Relationship to a Changing Climate ............................................................................... 164
Chapter 11 Historical and Projected Changes in Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern USA 177
Chapter 12 Vulnerability of the Electricity and Water Sectors to Climate Change in the Midwest
........................................................................................................................................ 192
Chapter 13 The Drought Risk Management Paradigm in the Context of Climate Change ...... 212
Chapter 14 Local Adaptation to Changing Flood Vulnerability in the Midwest ...................... 226
Chapter 15 The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels and Potential Impacts of Future Climate
Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 240
Chapter 16 Vulnerability of the Energy System to Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing ............... 252
Chapter 17 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Midwestern
United States: What Next? .............................................................................................. 271

Sujets

• Sciences et techniques
• Region
• Weather
• Regional
• Nature
• Science

Informations

• Publié par: Indiana University Press
• Date de parution: 21 janvier 2013
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780253007742
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST
Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation
Edited by S. C. Pryor
INDIANA UNIVERSITY PRESS
Bloomington and Indianapolis
This book is a publication of
Indiana University Press
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Bloomington, Indiana 47404-3797 USA
iupress.indiana.edu
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2013 by Indiana University Press
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. The Association of American University Presses Resolution on Permissions constitutes the only exception to this prohibition.
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Manufactured in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Climate change in the Midwest : impacts, risks, vulnerability, and adaptation / edited by S.C. Pryor.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-253-00682-0 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-253-00774-2 (eb) 1. Climatic changes-Middle West. 2. Climatic changes-Environmental aspects-Middle West. 3. Climatic changes-Risk assessment-Middle West. 4. Plants-Effect of global warming on-Middle West. 5. Vegetation and climate. 6. Middle West-Climate. 7. Water levels-Great Lakes (North America) I. Pryor, S. C., [date]
QC984.M53C55 2012
363.738 740977-dc23
2012017798
1 2 3 4 5 18 17 16 15 14 13
For Barbara Pryor, with love always.
What we need is enough mitigation to avoid unmanageable climate change and enough adaptation to manage unavoidable climate change.
-John Holdren, U.S. Presidential Science Advisor (2010). Presentation to the 2010 Kavli Prize Science Forum, Oslo, Norway
Contents
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
1. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: An Introduction
2. The Midwestern United States: Socioeconomic Context and Physical Climate
3. Vulnerability and Adaptability of Agricultural Systems in the Southeast United States to Climate Variability and Climate Change
4. Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to Global Climate Change
5. Climate-Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment for the Midwestern United States
6. Potential Future Impacts of Climate on Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes Region
7. Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in the Midwest to Climate Change
8. Michigan s Tart Cherry Industry: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
9. Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Health
10. Intra-Urban Variations in Vulnerability Associated with Extreme Heat Events in Relationship to a Changing Climate
11. Historical and Projected Changes in Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern United States
12. Vulnerability of the Electricity and Water Sectors to Climate Change in the Midwest
13. The Drought Risk Management Paradigm in the Context of Climate Change
14. Local Adaptation to Changing Flood Vulnerability in the Midwest
15. The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels and Potential Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios
16. Vulnerability of the Energy System to Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing
17. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in the Midwestern United States: What Next?
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
INDEX
Color Plates
Preface
Informing effective responses to climate change is predicated on (1) advancement of fundamental understanding of climate science, including development of projections at scales suitable for impact assessments; (2) mitigation activities designed to limit the magnitude of climate change; and (3) efforts to understand the risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities posed by climate change and thus to develop optimal adaptation strategies. Research presented in this volume is focused on identifying and quantifying the major vulnerabilities to climate change as manifest in the midwestern United States and thus lays the foundation for addressing the adaptation gap (i.e., the difference between the scale of efforts to mitigate anthropogenic forcing of climate and the likely scale and magnitude of climate change). We provide state-of-the-art, spatially disaggregated information regarding the historical, current, and possible future climate states within the region with a particular focus on extremes, and we undertake assessments of the risks and vulnerabilities of critical socioeconomic and environmental systems in the region to climate change and variability. Key sectors discussed herein are agriculture, human health, water resources, energy, and infrastructure, each of which exhibits current vulnerability to climate variability that may be amplified under current climate change trajectories. Challenges and opportunities in developing local and regional strategies for addressing the risks posed by climate change are discussed in the context of developing an integrative policy for the region.
Acknowledgments
Funding for this volume was provided by the Center for Research in Environmental Science at Indiana University and by the National Science Foundation (grant 1019603).
Abbreviations and Acronyms
AMO
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
AO
Arctic Oscillation
AOGCMs
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models
AR4
Fourth Assessment Report (of the IPCC)
ASOS
Automated Surface Observing System
AWEA
American Wind Energy Association
BTU
British Thermal Units (a traditional unit of energy equal to about 1055 joules)
CCSP
Climate Change Science Plan
CDC
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CDD
Cooling Degree Days
CCCMA
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
CH 4
Methane
CI
Confidence Intervals
CMAQ
Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System
CMIP 3
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3
CNA
Central North America
CNRM
Centre National de Recherches M t orologiques
CO
Carbon monoxide
CO 2
Carbon dioxide
CO 2 -eq CO 2 -equivalents
The total GHG burden converted into a radiative forcing using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of CO 2 (i.e., CO 2 -equivalent concentration is the concentration of CO 2 that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a given mixture of CO 2 and other forcing components)
COOP
CO-OPerative observer network
CRCM
Canadian Regional Climate Model
CRU
Climatic Research Unit (at the University of East Anglia)
CSIRO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
CUM_HEAT
Cumulative Heat Index
DoE
Department of Energy
DTR
Diurnal Temperature Range
ECMWF
European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
EHE
Extreme Heat Events
EIA
Energy Information Administration
ENSEMBLES
Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (a European Project)
ENSO
El Ni o-Southern Oscillation
Energy intensity
A measure of the energy intensity of the economy. Use of energy in BTU per dollar of Gross Domestic Product
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
ERA-40
Forty-year reanalysis data set issued by ECMWF
ESD
Empirical/Statistical Downscaling
ESM
Earth System Models
FEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency
FHA
Federal Highways Administration
FRIS
USDA Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey
GCM
General Circulation Model or Global Climate Model
GDD
Growing Degree Days
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GFDL
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GHCN
Global Historical Climatology Network
GHG
Greenhouse Gases
GISS
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GPP
Gross Primary Productivity
GWP
Global Warming Potential
HDD
Heating Degree Days
HFCs
Hydrofluorocarbons
HHWS
Heat/Health Watch Warning System
HRM3
Hadley Center Regional Climate Model (third generation)
HTCI
Human Thermal Comfort Index
IA
Iowa
IAM
Integrated Assessment Models
IL
Illinois
IN
Indiana
INCA
Interagency National Climate Assessment Task Force
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPSL
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
kWhr
Kilowatt hour (a unit of energy equal to 1000 watt hours or 3.6 megajoules)
KS
Kansas
KY
Kentucky
LST
Land Surface Temperature
MAO
Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation
MGA
Midwest Governors Association
MI
Michigan
MIP
Model Intercomparison Projects
MIROC
Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate
MIUB
Meteorologischen Instituts der Universit t Bonn
MMWR
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
MN
Minnesota
MO
Missouri
MPI
Max Plank Institute
MRI
Meteorological Research Institute of Japan
MRCC
Midwest Regional Climate Center
N 2 O
Nitrous oxide
NAAQS
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
NAM
Northern Annular Mode
NAO
North Atlantic Oscillation
NARCCAP
North American Climate Change Assessment Program
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NBS
Net Basin Supply
NCAR
National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCDC
National Climatic Data Center
NCEP
National Center for Environmental Prediction
ND
North Dakota
NDMC
National Drought Mitigation Center
NDVI
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NE
Nebraska
NEPA
National Environmental Policy Act
NFIP
National Flood Insurance Program
NIDIS
National Integrated Drought Information system
NOAA
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
NNR
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
NO
Nitric oxide
NO 2
Nitrogen dioxide
NOx
Oxides of nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO 2 )
NPP
Net Primary Productivity
NPS
Non-Point Source
NREL
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NWRS
National Wildlife Refuge System
NWS
National Weather Service
O 3
Ozone
OECD
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OH
Ohio
PAR
Pressure and release model
PCDMI
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and I