Climate Change in the Midwest
236 pages
English

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English
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Description

Effective responses to Midwestern climate change


Read an excerpt from the book


The research presented in this volume focuses on identifying and quantifying the major vulnerabilities to climate change in the Midwestern United States. By providing state-of-the-art spatially disaggregated information regarding the historical, current, and possible future climate within the region, the contributors assess the risks and susceptibility of the critical socio-economic and environmental systems. Key sectors discussed are agriculture, human health, water, energy and infrastructure, and the vulnerabilities that may be amplified under current climate trajectories. The book also considers the challenges and opportunities to develop local and regional strategies for addressing the risks posed by climate change in the context of developing an integrative policy for the region.


Table of contents
Chapter 1 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation: An Introduction ....... 9
Chapter 2 The Midwestern USA: Socio-Economic Context and Physical Climate .................... 19
Chapter 3 Vulnerability and Adaptability of Agricultural Systems in the Southeast USA to
Climate Variability and Climate Change .......................................................................... 64
Chapter 4 Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to Global Climate Change .......................... 76
Chapter 5 Climate - Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment for the Midwestern United States .. 86
Chapter 6 Potential Future Impacts of Climate on Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes
Region ............................................................................................................................. 101
Chapter 7 Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in the Midwest to Climate Change .......... 114
Chapter 8 Michigan's Tart Cherry Industry: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
........................................................................................................................................ 129
Chapter 9 Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Health ................................ 147
Chapter 10 Intra-Urban Variations in Vulnerability Associated with Extreme Heat Events in
Relationship to a Changing Climate ............................................................................... 164
Chapter 11 Historical and Projected Changes in Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern USA 177
Chapter 12 Vulnerability of the Electricity and Water Sectors to Climate Change in the Midwest
........................................................................................................................................ 192
Chapter 13 The Drought Risk Management Paradigm in the Context of Climate Change ...... 212
Chapter 14 Local Adaptation to Changing Flood Vulnerability in the Midwest ...................... 226
Chapter 15 The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels and Potential Impacts of Future Climate
Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 240
Chapter 16 Vulnerability of the Energy System to Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing ............... 252
Chapter 17 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Midwestern
United States: What Next? .............................................................................................. 271

Sujets

Informations

Publié par
Date de parution 21 janvier 2013
Nombre de lectures 0
EAN13 9780253007742
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 18 Mo

Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,1400€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.

Extrait

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST
This book is a publication of
Indiana University Press 601 North Morton Street Bloomington, Indiana 47404-3797 USA
iupress.indiana.edu
Telephone orders800-842-6796 Fax orders812-855-7931
© 2013 by Indiana University Press
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. The Association of American University Presses’ Resolution on Permissions constitutes the only exception to this prohibition.
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Manufactured in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Climate change in the Midwest : impacts, risks, vulnerability, and adaptation / edited by S.C. Pryor. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-253-00682-0 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-253-00774-2 (eb) 1. Climatic changes—Middle West. 2. Climatic changes—Environmental aspects—Middle West. 3. Climatic changes—Risk assessment—Middle West. 4. Plants—Effect of global warming on—Middle West. 5. Vegetation and climate. 6. Middle West—Climate. 7. Water levels —Great Lakes (North America) I. Pryor, S. C., [date] QC984.M53C55 2012 363.738′740977—dc23
1 2 3 4 5 18 17 16 15 14 13
2012017798
For Barbara Pryor, with love always.
“What we need is enough mitigation to avoid unmanageable climate change and enough adaptation to manage unavoidable climate change.” —John Holdren, U.S. Presidential Science Advisor (2010). Presentation to the 2010 Kavli Prize Science Forum, Oslo, Norway
Contents
PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
1. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: An Introduction 2. The Midwestern United States: Socioeconomic Context and Physical Climate
3. Vulnerability and Adaptability of Agricultural Systems in the Southeast United States to Climate Variability and Climate Change
4. Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to Global Climate Change
5. Climate-Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment for the Midwestern United States 6. Potential Future Impacts of Climate on Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes Region 7. Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in the Midwest to Climate Change
8. Michigan’s Tart Cherry Industry: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
9. Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Health
10. Intra-Urban Variations in Vulnerability Associated with Extreme Heat Events in Relationship to a Changing Climate 11. Historical and Projected Changes in Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern United States 12. Vulnerability of the Electricity and Water Sectors to Climate Change in the Midwest
13. The Drought Risk Management Paradigm in the Context of Climate Change
14. Local Adaptation to Changing Flood Vulnerability in the Midwest
15. The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels and Potential Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios 16. Vulnerability of the Energy System to Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing 17. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in the Midwestern United States: What Next?
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS INDEX Color Plates
Preface
Informing effective responses to climate change is predicated on (1) advancement of fundamental understanding of climate science, including development of projections at scales suitable for impact assessments; (2) mitigation activities designed to limit the magnitude of climate change; and (3) efforts to understand the risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities posed by climate change and thus to develop optimal adaptation strategies. Research presented in this volume is focused on identifying and quantifying the major vulnerabilities to climate change as manifest in the midwestern United States and thus lays the foundation for addressing the “adaptation gap” (i.e., the difference between the scale of efforts to mitigate anthropogenic forcing of climate and the likely scale and magnitude of climate change). We provide state-of-the-art, spatially disaggregated information regarding the historical, current, and possible future climate states within the region with a particular focus on extremes, and we undertake assessments of the risks and vulnerabilities of critical socioeconomic and environmental systems in the region to climate change and variability. Key sectors discussed herein are agriculture, human health, water resources, energy, and infrastructure, each of which exhibits current vulnerability to climate variability that may be amplified under current climate change trajectories. Challenges and opportunities in developing local and regional strategies for addressing the risks posed by climate change are discussed in the context of developing an integrative policy for the region.
Acknowledgments
Funding for this volume was provided by the Center for Research in Environmental Science at Indiana University and by the National Science Foundation (grant 1019603).
Abbreviations and Acronyms
AMO AO AOGCMs AR4 ASOS AWEA BTU CCSP CDC CDD CCCMA CH 4 CI CMAQ CMIP 3 CNA CNRM CO CO 2 CO -eq CO -2 2 equivalents
COOP CRCM CRU CSIRO CUM_HEAT DoE DTR ECMWF EHE EIA ENSEMBLES
ENSO Energy intensity
EPA ERA-40 ESD ESM FEMA FHA
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models Fourth Assessment Report (of the IPCC) Automated Surface Observing System American Wind Energy Association British Thermal Units (a traditional unit of energy equal to about 1055 joules) Climate Change Science Plan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Cooling Degree Days Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Methane Confidence Intervals Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 Central North America Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Carbon monoxide Carbon dioxide The total GHG burden converted into a radiative forcing using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of CO (i.e., CO -equivalent concentration is 2 2 the concentration of CO that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a 2 given mixture of CO and other forcing components) 2 CO-OPerative observer network Canadian Regional Climate Model Climatic Research Unit (at the University of East Anglia) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Cumulative Heat Index Department of Energy Diurnal Temperature Range European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Heat Events Energy Information Administration Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (a European Project) El Niño–Southern Oscillation A measure of the energy intensity of the economy. Use of energy in BTU per dollar of Gross Domestic Product Environmental Protection Agency Forty-year reanalysis data set issued by ECMWF Empirical/Statistical Downscaling Earth System Models Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Highways Administration
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