Complexity Science and World Affairs

Walter C. Clemens

Description

Why did some countries transition peacefully from communist rule to political freedom and market economies, while others did not? Why did the United States enjoy a brief moment as the sole remaining superpower, and then lose power and influence across the board? What are the prospects for China, the main challenger to American hegemony? In Complexity Science and World Affairs, Walter C. Clemens Jr. demonstrates how the basic concepts of complexity science can broaden and deepen the insights gained by other approaches to the study of world affairs. He argues that societal fitness—the ability of a social system to cope with complex challenges and opportunities—hinges heavily on the values and way of life of each society, and serves to explain why some societies gain and others lose. Applying theory to several rich case studies, including political developments across post–Soviet Eurasia and the United States, Clemens shows that complexity science offers a powerful set of tools for advancing the study of international relations, comparative government, and, more broadly, the social sciences.
List of Figures and Tables

Foreword
Stuart A. Kauffman

To the Reader

Acknowledgments

1. Why a Science of Complexity?

2. Basic Concepts of Complexity Science

3. A Crucial Test Case: Why the Baltic Is Not the Balkans

4. Culture and the Capacity to Cope with Complexity

5. Complexity Science as a Tool to Understand the New Eurasia

6. How Complexity Concepts Explain Past and Present Fitness

7. Hyperpower Challenged: Prospects for Americans

8. What Future for the American Dream?

9. Why Is South Korea Not North Korea?

10. Toward a New Paradigm for Global Studies

11. Challenges to Complexity Science

Afterword: Science and Art in this Book: Exploring the Genome Together
Daniel Kohn

Notes
References
Index

Sujets

• International relations
• Eastern Europe

Informations

• Publié par: State University of New York Press
• Date de parution: 18 novembre 2013
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781438449036
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Praise for Complexity Science and World Affairs
“Complexity can be overwhelming and complexity science can be daunting, and, yet, in Walter Clemens’s skilled hands both become accessible, understandable, and useful tools for both scholars and practitioners. Once again, Clemens has shown that sophisticated academic theorizing only benefits from clarity, elegance, and wit. The book is ideal for graduate and undergraduate students as a supplementary text in international relations or comparative politics.”
— Alexander Motyl, Rutgers University–Newark
“Clemens offers a fresh, even startling, paradigm and process for analyzing the seemingly unpredictable relations within and among human societies. With impressive clarity he proposes that ‘the capacity to cope with complexity’ has become a key determinant of success in our intricately interrelated world. Careful study of this capacity in specific contexts can lead to revealing analyses in comparative politics and international relations. A provocative and stimulating treatise!”
— S. Frederick Starr, Johns Hopkins University
“Walt Clemens’s provocative new book can be appreciated at several levels: as an analytical framework in international relations—complexity science—that offers a compelling alternative to realism and neoliberalism; as an incisive critique of the ‘fitness’ of the supposedly most developed societies to deal with our complex world; and as a humanistic value-set that provides better standards for assessing governments than do GDP, trade levels, or military spending. Clemens skillfully integrates theory and practice to explore US ‘hyperpower,’ the two Koreas, China, and other states from new angles, and with consistent objectivity. IR specialists should find this book exciting, while IR and international studies students will be challenged by the new paradigm it presents.”
— Mel Gurtov, Portland State University
“Clemens proposes a powerful new way of looking at international relations and politics, and offers a productive method for assessing the fitness of societies in the early twenty-first century.”
— Guntis Šmidchens, University of Washington, Seattle
“You don’t have to be a political scientist to wonder why some states succeed and others do not, why some societies flourish while others suffer stagnation and conflict. Employing the relatively new tool of complexity science, Walter Clemens evaluates the ‘fitness’ of states and societies, i.e. their ability to cope with complex challenges and opportunities. He does so in a way that is erudite—how many studies quote Walt Whitman and Karl Marx in the same chapter?—yet clear and accessible. Clemens challenges both existing political science paradigms and policy perspectives. This is a stimulating, rich volume that can be read and re-read with profit and appreciation for its breadth and depth and most of all for its insistence that we see the world, and the states in it, in all their complexity.”
— Ronald H. Linden, University of Pittsburgh
C OMPLEXITY S CIENCE and W ORLD A FFAIRS
SUNY SERIES , J AMES N. R OSENAU SERIES IN G LOBAL P OLITICS

David C. Earnest, editor
C OMPLEXITY S CIENCE and W ORLD A FFAIRS

W ALTER C. C LEMENS J R .
F OREWORD BY S TUART A . K AUFFMAN
Cover art, BlueMol 10–13 , by Daniel Kohn. Cover and interior art by Daniel Kohn is from the series DataSets , and is used by permission.
Published by
State University of New York Press, Albany
© 2013 Walter C. Clemens Jr.
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission. No part of this book may be stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission in writing of the publisher.
For information, contact State University of New York Press, Albany, NY www.sunypress.edu
Production and book design, Laurie Searl Marketing, Anne M. Valentine
L IBRARY OF C ONGRESS C ATALOGING-IN -P UBLICATION D ATA
Clemens, Walter C. Complexity science and world affairs / Walter C. Clemens, Jr. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-1-4384-4901-2 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. World politics—21st century. 2. Evaluation—Methodology. 3. Complexity (Philosophy) I. Title.
D863.C54 2013
909.83’1—dc23
2013002395
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
FOR
Anna, Ali, Lee Lo, Ho Tai,
Lani, Rose, Olivia, Julian, Jeff, Todd, Ben, Julia
Liz and Stu
C ONTENTS
List of Figures and Tables
Foreword Stuart A.Kauffman
To the Reader
Acknowledgments
1 Why a Science of Complexity?
2 Basic Concepts of Complexity Science
3 A Crucial Test Case: Why the Baltic Is Not the Balkans
4 Culture and the Capacity to Cope with Complexity
5 Complexity Science as a Tool to Understand the New Eurasia
6 How Complexity Concepts Explain Past and Present Fitness
7 Hyperpower Challenged: Prospects for Americans
8 What Future for the American Dream?
9 Why Is South Korea Not North Korea?
10 Toward a New Paradigm for Global Studies
11 Challenges to Complexity Science
Afterword: Science and Art in this Book: Exploring the Genome Together Daniel Kohn
Notes
References
Index
FIGURES and TABLES
F IGURES
Figure 1.1 Exploitation, Mutual Gain, and Fitness: Likely Linkages
Figure 2.1 Soft and Hard Power Resources: USA, Russia, and China in 2012
Figure 2.2 HDI and Honesty Scores for Leading Countries by Cultural and Political Heritage in 2010
Figure 5.1 HDI Scores for All Communist and Post-Communist States, 1970-2010
Figure 5.2 HDI, BTI, and CPI Scores for Communist and Post-Communist States in 2010
Figure 6.1 Bible in the Vernacular vs. HDI, BTI, and CPI Scores for Historically Christian, Post-Communist States
Figure 7.1 HDI Trends: Scores for Leading States, 1980-2010
Figure 9.1 South Korea compared with North Korea, BTI 2012
Figure 9.2 “In the beginning was the Word …”—in Hangŭl
T ABLES
Table 2.1 Alternative Scenarios Posited by Complexity Science
Table 3.1 Comparative Democracy, Independent Media, and Human Development 2009
Table 3.2 Progress in Closing the First 30 Chapters of the Acquis Communautaire
Table 3.3 Peace and War in Lithuania and Croatia
Table 3.4 Economic and Social Development in Estonia Compared with Bosnia
Table 5.1 Freedom House Democracy Ratings for “Nations in Transit” in 2012
Table 5.2 Transformation Rankings (BTI) of Communist and Post-Communist Countries, 2003-2012, by Cultural Heritage
Table 5.3 HDI, Transformation, Democracy, Honesty, and Economic Freedom, 2011-2012
Table 5.4 Purchasing Power Per Inhabitant, Post-Communist States Members and Candidate Members of the EU
Table 5.5 Suicide Rates per 100,000 Before and After Communist Collapse
Table 6.1 Percentage of Individuals in Communist or Post-Communist Countries Using the Internet in 2011 (global n = 92)
Table 7.1 Parameters of Power, 1776-2000
Table 7.2 Parameters of Power, 2008 and 2012
Table 10.1 Percentage of Individuals in Islamic Heritage Countries Using the Internet in 2011
F OREWORD

Walt Clemens is a much admired friend whom I have known since a summer when we both served as counselors in a camp for diabetic children in the Sequoia National Park. I was fifteen, midway through high school, and he twenty-two, a fledgling grad student. Working with these diabetic children planted the seeds for my own future in medical and biological sciences. Before the camp breakfast Walt studied Russian grammar, and later, after these brave kids got their insulin shots, he taught them American Indian lore and dancing. When the camp season ended, Walt and I climbed Mount Whitney and fished in the Klamath River. Years later, he climbed the Matterhorn in the Alps and Mount Pacharmo in Nepal. I wish I had been with him. He tells me that he has studied world affairs because, like mountains, they stand before us—challenging, interesting to explore, sometimes beautiful, potentially useful, and often dangerous. Why grapple with the peaks and valleys of our often messy planet? To understand where humanity has come from and where it can go. To live, prosper, and procreate in realms where, as naturalist John Muir noted, “[w]hen you touch anything, you find it is hitched to everything else in the universe.”
The summits of knowledge about human behavior are still distant and enshrouded with mist. The ascent routes are steep and poorly mapped. We would-be climbers and our instruments are clumsy. Our knowledge and tools for learning have improved but remain feeble next to tasks of understanding and perhaps nudging the world to some better place.
Clemens has written an outstanding book—the culmination of a half-century’s experience in and analysis of world affairs. Having wrestled with the nostrums of power politics and legal-moralism, he has opted to search for a more comprehensive approach to analyzing world affairs. To this end, he has turned to complexity science in the hope of articulating a new paradigm for the study of comparative government and cross-border relations. Having reached the summit of Mount Whitney and other mountains, he seeks to scale the