Innocent Bystanders

Philip Keefer And Norman Loayza

Description

The drug policies of wealthy consuming countries emphasize criminalization, interdiction, and eradication. Such extreme responses to social challenges risk unintended, costly consequences. The evidence presented in this volume is that these consequences are high in the case of current drug policies, particularly for poor transit and producer countries. These costs include the deaths of thousands in the conflict between drug cartels and security forces, political instability, and the infiltration of criminal elements into governments, on the one hand; and increased narcotics use in countries that would not otherwise have been targeted by drug suppliers.
Despite such costs, extreme policies could be worthwhile if their benefits were significantly higher than those of more moderate, less costly policies. The authors review the evidence on the benefits of current policies and find that they are clouded in uncertainty: eradication appears to have no permanent effect on supply; the evidence on criminalization does not exclude either the possibility that its effects on drug consumption are low, or that they are high. Uncertainty over benefits and the high costs of current policies relative to alternatives justifies greater emphasis on lower cost policies and more conscientious and better-funded efforts to assess the benefits of all policies.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 24 mars 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 17
• EAN13: 9780821380352
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza, Editors
INNOCENT BYSTANDERS
Developing Countries and the War on DrugsINNOCENT
BYSTANDERS INNOCENT
BYSTANDERS
Developing Countries and the War on Drugs
PHILIP KEEFER
AND
NORMAN LOAYZA
Editors
A COPUBLICATION OF PALGRAVE MACMILLAN AND
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8034-5 (softcover) ISBN: 978-0-8213-8036-9 (hardcover)
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8034-5 (softcover) DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8036-9 (hardcover)
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8035-2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.
Printed in the United States.Contents
Foreword by Fernando Henrique Cardoso xi
About the Editors and Authors xv
Abbreviations xxi
Introduction 1
Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza
1 Drug Prohibition and Developing Countries:
Uncertain Benefi ts, Certain Costs 9
Philip Keefer, Norman Loayza, and Rodrigo R. Soares
2 The Hist orical Foundations of the Narcotic
Drug Control Regime 61
Julia Buxton
3 Can Production and Traffi cking of Illicit
Drugs Be Reduced or Only Shifted? 95Peter Reuter
4 Evaluating Plan Colombia 135
Daniel Mejía
5 Ev o, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny:
General Equilibrium Analysis of the
Market for Illegal Drugs 165
Rómulo A. Chumacero
vvi Contents
6 Competitive Advantages in the Production
and Traffi cking of Coca-Cocaine and
Opium-Heroin in Afghanistan and the
Andean Countries 195
Francisco E. Thoumi
7 Cocaine Production and Traffi cking:
What Do We Know? 253
Daniel Mejía and Carlos Esteban Posada
8 Responding to the Challenge of Afghanistan’s
Opium Economy: Development Lessons
and Policy Implications 301
William A. Byrd
Index 341
Box
8.1. National Drug Control Strategy—Objective,
Priorities, Pillars 320
Figures
1.1. Number of A dults Incarcerated for Drug Law
Violations in the United States, 1972–2002 14
1.2. (a) Potential Opium Production, 1990–2007;
(b) Potential Cocaine Production, 1990–2007 30
1.3. (a) Retail Cocaine Price, 1990–2006; (b) Retail Opiate
Price, 1990–2006 32
1.4. Real Prices for Cocaine, Heroin, and Marijuana,
1975–2003 33
1.5. Annual Prevalence of Marijuana, Cocaine, and Heroin
Use among U.S. High School Seniors, 1975–2008 33
1.6. Rate of U.S. Hospital Emergency Room Mentions for
Marijuana, Cocaine, and Heroin, 1978–2002 per
100,000 Population 34
1.7. (a) Cocaine Retail Price and GDP per capita;
(b) Heroin Retail Price and GDP per capita, 1997–2005 38 Contents vii
1.8. (a) Prevalence of Cocaine Consumption and
GDP per Capita in Population Age 15–64;
(b) Prevalence of Heroin Consumption and GDP
per Capita in Population Age 15–64, 1997–2005 43
4.1. T rends in Cocaine Use in Consumer Countries,
1999–2006 137
4.2. Trends in Cocaine Prices, 1999–2006 138
4.3. Number of Hectares Cultivated with Coca Crops
and Potential Cocaine Production in Colombia,
1999–2006 139
4.4. P roductivity of Coca per Hectare per Year in
Colombia, 1999–2006 139
4.5. Potential Cocaine Production in Bolivia, Colombia,
and Peru, 1999–2006 140
4.6. Interdiction in Producer and Transit Countries,
Since 2000 141
4.7. Amount of Cocaine Interdicted and Disrupted from
Flows toward the United States, 2000–06 142
4.8. Estimated Quantity of Export-Quality Cocaine
Flowing toward the United States, 2000–06 143
4.9. T he Model in a Nutshell 148
5.1. Fitted Probabilities and Expenditures 178
7.1. Estimates of Coca Bush Cultivation in Bolivia,
Colombia, and Peru, 1987–2005 259
7.2. Estimates of Coca Bush C
Ceru by UNODC and ONDCP, 2000–08 260
7.3. UNODC and ONDCP Estimates of Coca Bush
Cultivation in Colombia, 1999–2005 262
7.4. Potential Dried Coca Leaf Production and Prices
in Bolivia and Peru, 1990–2007 263
7.5. Coca Base Production and Prices in Colombia,
2000–07 264
7.6. UNODC and ONDCP Estimates of Potential Cocaine
Production in Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru,
1996–2006 266
7.7. Average Expected Purity of Powder Cocaine in
the United States, 1981–2007 268viii Contents
7.8. Average Purity of Powder Cocaine in the
United States, 1981–2007 269
7.9. Percentage of U. S. Population Age 12 and
Older Reporting Use of Cocaine, 1985–2007 271
7.10. Cocaine Use in the Past 30 Days among 12th
Graders in the United States, 1991–2006 271
7.11. Average Price of 1 Gram of Pure Powder
Cocaine in the United States, 1981–2007 272
7.12. Price of Ced States and
Europe at Street Purity, 1990–2007 273
7.13. The Market for Cocaine (1980–2008) and
the Stability of Cocaine Supply (2000–08) 274
7.14. Coca Bush Cultivation and Eradication in
Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru, 1993–2008 281
7.15. S eizures of Coca Base and Cocaine in Bolivia
and Colombia, 1997–2007 283
7.16. Destroyed Illegal Cocaine Laboratories in Bolivia
and C284
7.17. Seizures of Cocaine in the United States, 1989–2007 285
8.1. Dry Opium Prices in Kandahar and Nangarhar,
1997–2006 309
8.2. Opium Poppy Cultivation in Selected Provinces,
2003–07
8.3. The Vicious Circle of the Drug Industry in
Afghanistan 318
8.4. C onsolidation of the Drug Industry in Afghanistan 319
Tables
1.1. Price Structure of 1 Kilo of Pure Cocaine and
1 Kilo of Pure Heroin, Selected Countries and Cities,
Mid-1990s and 2000 18
1.2. Cross-Country Evidence on the Determinants of
Retail Cocaine Prices, 1997–2005 36
1.3. Cross-Country Evidence on the Det
Retail Heroin Prices, 1997–2005 37