Lessons from NAFTA

Luis Serven, Daniel Lederman, William F. Maloney

Description

Analyzing the experience of Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 'Lessons from NAFTA' aims to provide guidance to Latin American and Caribbean countries considering free trade agreements with the United States. The authors conclude that the treaty raised external trade and foreign investment inflows and had a modest effect on Mexico's average income per person. It is likely that the treaty also helped achieve a modest reduction in poverty and an improvement in job quality.
This book will be of interest to scholars and policymakers interested in international trade and development.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 15 novembre 2004
• Nombre de lectures: 18
• EAN13: 9780821383742
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Lessons
from NAFTA
FOR LATIN AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN
Daniel Lederman
William F. Maloney
Luis Servén
THE WORLD BANK STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESSLessons from NAFTALessons from
NAFTA
for Latin America
and the Caribbean
Daniel Lederman,
William F. Maloney, Luis Servén
A COPUBLICATION OF STANFORD ECONOMICS AND FINANCE,
AN IMPRINT OF STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, AND THE WORLD BANK © 2005 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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A copublication of Stanford Economics and Finance, an imprint of Stanford University
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ISBN 0-8213-5813-8 (World Rights except North America)
ISBN 0-8047-5239-7 (Hardcover) (North America)
ISBN 0-8047-5240-0 (Softcover)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.Latin American
Development Forum Series
This series was created in 2003 to promote, debate, and disseminate
information and analysis and convey the excitement and complexity of the
most topical issues in economic and social development in Latin America
and the Caribbean. It is sponsored by the Inter-American Development
Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean, and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for publication
represent the highest quality in each institution’s research and activity out-
put and have been selected for their relevance to the academic community,
policymakers, researchers, and interested readers.
Advisory Committee Members
Inés Bustillo, Director, Washington Office, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
José Luis Guasch, Regional Adviser, Latin America and the Caribbean Re-
gion, World Bank
Steven Haber, A. A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Department of
Political Science, Stanford University; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fel-
low, the Hoover Institution
Eduardo Lora, Principal Adviser, Research Department, Inter-American
Development Bank
José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo E. Perry, Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean
Region, World Bank
Luis Servén, Lead Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region,
World BankContents
Foreword xv
Acknowledgments xix
1L ESSONS FROM NAFTA FOR LATIN AMERICAN
AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES 1
2 NAFTA AND CONVERGENCE IN NORTH AMERICA:
HIGH EXPECTATIONS, BIG EVENTS, LITTLE TIME 27
3M ACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AFTER NAFTA:
SYNCHRONIZATION, VOLATILITY, AND
M POLICY COORDINATION 77
4 NAFTA’S REMAINING TRADE BARRIERS 119
5F ACTOR MARKETS 175
6I NNOVATION IN MEXICO: NAFTA IS NOT ENOUGH 247
7 NAFTA AND THE TRADE FLOWS OF NONMEMBER COUNTRIES 289
8T HE IMPACT OF NAFTA ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT
IN THIRD COUNTRIES 347
BOXES
3.1 Macroeconomic Synchronization in the
European Union 83
3.2at the Regional
Level 94viii CONTENTS
4.1 Rules of Origin and the Export of Protection
Among NAFTA Partners: The Basic Analytical
Framework 122
4.2 The Multiplier Effects of PROCAMPO: Evidence of
Effectiveness 139
4.3 Mexican and U.S. Experiences with Delinked
Agricultural Income Subsidies 150
5.1 The FDI Impact of EEC/EU Accession 178
5.2 The Investment Chapters of NAFTA 180
5.3 Corporate Governance Reform in Mexico 203
5.4 Estimating Convergence 210
6.1 Some Algebra: How Much Should Be Spent
on R&D? 261
6.2. Knowledge Flows from Public Research Centers to
the Productive Sector in Mexico 273
7.1 Trade Creation and Diversion in the Process of
Enlarging the EU 291
7.2 The Caribbean Basin Initiative 324
8.1 FDI Diversion in Europe 357
8.2 Disentangling Common and Idiosyncratic
FDI Trends 362
8.3 Costa Rica vs. Mexico in the INTEL Race 378
FIGURES
1.1 Mexico: Real Manufacturing Wages and Poverty 5
1.2Estimated Impact of the Institutional
Gap on the Per Capita GDP Gap 7
1.3 Latin America: Correlation of Annual Growth of
Real GDP with that of the United States 9
1.4 Latin America: Imports Plus
Exports over GDP 11
1.5 Mexico: Agricultural Production and Trade,
1990–2001 13
1.6 Latin America: Net FDI Inflows as a Percentage
of GDP 19
1.7 Latin America: Wages Adjusted for Skill by Degree
of Exposure to Trade 21
1.8 Latin America and the Caribbean Region’s
Gap in Patent Counts Relative to the
Average and to Patenting Overachievers 24
2.1 GDP Per Capita Relative to the United States,
Selected Economies, 1960–2001 28
2.2 U.S.–Mexico GDP Per Capita Gap: Similar-Cycle
Model with Quarterly PPP-adjusted Data, 1960–2002 34