Natural Resources, Neither Curse nor Destiny

Natural
Resources
Neither Curse
nor Destiny
Edited by
Daniel Lederman
William F. Maloney
STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESSNatural Resources
Neither Curse nor DestinyNatural Resources
Neither Curse nor Destiny
Edited by
Daniel Lederman
William F. Maloney
A COPUBLICATION OF STANFORD ECONOMICS AND FINANCE,
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ISBN-10: 0-8213-6545-2 ISBN-10: 0-8047-5709-7 (soft cover)
ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6545-8 ISBN-10: 0-8047-5708-9 (hard cover)
eISBN-10: 0-8213-6546-0 ISBN-13: 978-0-8047-5709-6 (soft cover)
eISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6546-5 ISBN-13: 978-0-8047-5708-9 (hard cover)
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6545-8
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Natural resources, neither curse nor destiny / edited by Daniel Lederman,
William F. Maloney.
p. cm. -- (Latin American development forum)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6545-8
ISBN-10: 0-8213-6545-2
1. Economic development. 2. Natural resources. I. Lederman, Daniel, 1968–
II. Maloney, William F. (William Francis), 1959–
HD82.N36 2006
333.7--dc22
2006048227Latin American
Development Forum Series
This series was created in 2003 to promote, debate, and disseminate
information and analysis and convey the excitement and complexity of the
most topical issues in economic and social development in Latin America
and the Caribbean. It is sponsored by the Inter-American Development
Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and
the Caribbean, and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for
publication represent the highest quality in each institution’s research and
activity output and have been selected for their relevance to the academic
community, policy makers, researchers, and interested readers.
Advisory Committee Members
Inés Bustillo, Director, Washington Office, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
José Luis Guasch, Regional Adviser, Latin America and Caribbean
Region, World Bank
Steven Haber, A. A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Department of
Political Science, Stanford University; Peter and Helen Bing Senior
Fellow, the Hoover Institution
Eduardo Lora, Principal Adviser, Research Department, Inter-American
Development Bank
José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo E. Perry, Chief Economist, Latin America and Caribbean
Region, World Bank
Luis Servén, Research Manager, Development Economics Vice Presidency,
World Bank
vContents
Foreword xiii
About the Contributors xvii
Abbreviations xix
1N EITHER CURSE NOR DESTINY: INTRODUCTION TO NATURAL
RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT 1
Daniel Lederman and William F. Maloney
PART I: ARE NATURAL RESOURCES A CURSE?
ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE
2TRADE STRUCTURE AND GROWTH 15
3RESOURCE CURSE ORDEBTOVERHANG?41
Ozmel Manzano and Roberto Rigobón
4T HE RELATIVE RICHNESS OF THE POOR? NATURAL RESOURCES,
HUMAN CAPITAL, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 71
Claudio Bravo-Ortega and José de Gregorio
PART II: ARE NATURAL RESOURCES A CURSE?
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
5P REBISCH-SINGER REDUX 103
John T. Cuddington, Rodney Ludema, Shamila A. Jayasuriya
6M ISSED OPPORTUNITIES: INNOVATION AND RESOURCE-BASED
GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA 141
William F. Maloney
viiviii CONTENTS
7RESOURCE-BASED GROWTH PAST AND PRESENT 183
Gavin Wright and Jesse Czelusta
8F ROM NATURAL RESOURCES TO HIGH-TECH PRODUCTION:
THE EVOLUTION OF INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN
SWEDEN AND FINLAND 213
Magnus Blomström and Ari Kokko
PART III: ARE NATURAL RESOURCES DESTINY?
9T RADE, LOCATION, AND DEVELOPMENT:
AN OVERVIEW OF THEORY 259
Anthony Venables
10 COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND TRADE INTENSITY:
ARE TRADITIONAL ENDOWMENTS DESTINY?289
Daniel Lederman and L. Colin Xu
11 OUTGROWING RESOURCE DEPENDENCE:
THEORY AND DEVELOPMENTS 323
Will Martin
INDEX 357
BOXES
5.1 Bad Data? 115
5.2 Unit Root Perils 118
FIGURES
2.1a Growth vs. NR Net Exports/Labor Force, 1980–99 18
2.1b Growth vs. NR Exports/GDP, 1980–99 18
2.1c Growth vs. Export Herfindahl, 1980–99 20
2.1d Growth vs. NR Exports/Total Merchandise Exports,
1980–99 20
2.1e Growth vs. IIT, 1980–99 21
3.1 Relationship between Natural Resources Abundance and
Growth as Shown by Comparing Primary Exports per
GDP to Growth, 1970–90 42
3.2 Shocks to Primary Exports 48
3.3 Shocks to “Real” Primary Exports 52
3.4 Residuals and Nonagricultural Primary Exports 55
3.5 Debt Growth and Resource Abundance 59
3.6 Commodity Prices 60
4.1 Growth Path 80