Africa at a Turning Point?

Delfin S. Go And John Page

Description

Since the mid-1990s, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an acceleration of economic growth that has produced rising incomes and faster human development. However, this growth contrasts with the continent's experience between 1975 and 1995, when it largely missed out on two decades of economic progress. This disparity between Africa's current experience and its history raises questions about the continent's development. Is there a turnaround in Africa's economy? Will growth persist?
'Africa at a Turning Point?' is a collection of essays that analyzes three interrelated aspects of Africa's recent revival. The first set of essays examines Africa's recent growth in the context of its history of growth accelerations and collapses. It seeks to answer such questions as, is Africa at a turning point? Are the economic fundamentals finally pointing toward more sustainable growth? The second set of essays looks at donor flows, which play a large role in Africa's growth. These essays focus on such issues as the management and delivery of increased aid, and the history and volatility of donor flows to Africa. The third set of essays considers the recent impact of one persistent threat to sustained growth in Africa: commodity price shocks, particularly those resulting from fluctuations in oil prices.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 14 avril 2008
• Nombre de lectures: 33
• EAN13: 9780821372784
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

AFRICA DEVELOPMENT ESSAYS
Africa at a
Turning Point?
GROWTH, AID, AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS
Edited by
DELFIN S. GO
JOHN PAGEAFRICA AT A
TURNING POINT?AFRICA AT A
TURNING POINT?
Growth, Aid, and
External Shocks
Edited by
Delfin S. Go
John Page© 2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
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All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 11 10 09 08
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-7277-7
eISBN: 978-0-8213-7278-4
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7277-7
Cover design: Naylor Design.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.Contents
Foreword xix
Abbreviations xxi
Introduction 1
Delfin S. Go and John Page
I Patterns of Long-Term Growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa 11
1 Is Africa’s Economy at a Turning Point? 13
Jorge Arbache, Delfin S. Go, and John Page
2 Patterns of Long-Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 87
Jorge Saba Arbache and John Page
II Aid—Volume, Volatility, and
Macroeconomic Management 141
3 Assessing the Macroeconomic Framework
for Scaling Up Foreign Aid 143
Delfin S. Go, Vijdan Korman, John Page, and Xiao Ye
4 More and Better Aid: How Are Donors Doing? 195
Punam Chuhan-Pole and Brendan Fitzpatrick
vvi CONTENTS
5 The Macroeconomic Dynamics
of Scaling Up Foreign Aid 235
Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, John Page,
Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder
6 Foreign Aid, Taxes, and Government Productivity:
Alternative Scenarios for Ethiopia’s Millennium
Development Goal Strategy 267
Hans Lofgren and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla
7 Beyond Aid: New Sources and Innovative
Mechanisms for Financing Development
in Sub-Saharan Africa 301
Dilip Ratha, Sanket Mohapatra, and Sonia Plaza
III Managing External Shocks 341
8 Have External Shocks Become More Important
for Output Fluctuations in African Countries? 343
Claudio Raddatz
9 Harnessing Oil Windfalls for Growth
in the Africa Region 375
Julia Devlin, Michael Lewin, and Thilakaratna Ranaweera
10 Managing Oil Revenue Volatility in Nigeria:
The Role of Fiscal Policy 427
Nina Budina and Sweder van Wijnbergen
11 Evaluation of the Welfare Impact of Higher
Energy Prices in Madagascar 461
Noro Andriamihaja and Giovanni Vecchi
12 Economywide and Distributional Impact of an Oil
Price Shock on the South African Economy 485
B. Essama-Nssah, Delfin S. Go, Marna Kearney, Vijdan
Korman, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder
Contributors 531
Index 539CONTENTS vii
Boxes
1.1 Asymmetric Effects of Good and Bad Times
on the Poor: The Case of Infant Mortality 37
1.2 Real Exchange Rate in Franc Zone 51
7.1 Reliance on Short-Term Debt in Sub-Saharan
Africa 309
7.2 New Players in Sub-Saharan Africa:
China and India 314
7.3 Trade Finance as an Attractive Short-Term
Financing Option 319
9.1 Oil Price Scenarios 387
9.2 EITI Criteria 404
9.3 Management of Oil Revenues: Important
Achievements in Nigeria 406
9.4 Best Practices in Budget Preparation 410
9.5 INTOSAI Audit Standards for External
Auditors 414
Figures
1.1 African Per Capita Income Relative to Other
Developing Countries 15
1.2 Africa’s Five Fastest-Growing Economies
Relative to Asia 15
1.3 Growth Pattern of African Countries: Number
of Countries by Different GDP Growth Range 16
1.4 Per Capita Income 23
1.5 Growth Rate of Per Capita Income 23
1.6 Actual and Simulated GDP Per Capita 28
1.7 Commodity and Oil Prices 42
1.8 Terms-of-Trade Index in Sub-Saharan Africa,
1973–80 and 1999–2006 43
1.9 Nominal and Real Price of Oil in
Sub-Saharan Africa 44
1.10 Official Development Assistance
to Sub-Saharan Africa 46
1.11 Economic Performance of African Countries
by Quality of Policy, 2000–06 48viii CONTENTS
1.12 Inflation Pattern of African Countries: Number
of Countries by Inflation Range 49
1.13 Non-Oil Exports as a Percentage of GDP, by
Region 59
1.14 Africa’s Share of World Trade 59
1.15 Concentration and Diversification of Exports,
by Region: 2000–04 Average 60
1.16 Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, by Region 60
1.17 Governance Indicators Scores, 1996 and
2006 65
1.18 Factory Floor Costs in Selected Sub-Saharan
African Countries, China, and India 66
1.19 Net Productivity versus Factory Floor (Gross)
Productivity in Selected Sub-Saharan African
Countries, India, and China 66
1.20 Manufacturing Costs for Selected Countries 67
1.21 Ease of Doing Business, by Region, 2007 68
1.22 Reform Measures Needed to Achieve 10 Percent
Increase in Africa’s Exports 69
1.23 Road Density, by Region 69
1.24 Time to Clear Goods at Ports in Selected
Sub-Saharan African Countries and China
and India 70
1.25 Income Growth by Population of Different Income
Levels in Three Countries 74
1.26 Per Capita GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia,
and Low-Income Countries 75
1.27 Average Expenditure of the Poor, by
Region 75
1.28 The Human Development Index 76
1.29 Gap between the MDGs and Projected Levels,
Given Current Trends 76
1.30 Rural-Urban Gaps in Access to Services,
Selected Countries 78
1.31 Pro-poor Spending as Percentage of Total
Government Spending, 1999 and 2004 79
2.1 GDP Per Capita 89
2.2 GDP Per Capita Growth 90