Étude sur le marché mondial de l’investissement en 2014 C&W

Étude sur le marché mondial de l’investissement en 2014 C&W

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Étude sur le marché mondial de l’investissement en 2014 C&W

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Publié le 02 janvier 2014
Nombre de lectures 11
Langue English
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PRESS RELEASE  Helen Basil +44 (0)20 7152 5110/ +44 (0)7793 808 110 helen.basil@eur.cushwake.comwww.twitter.com/cushwakeuk
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD FORECASTS GLOBAL PROPERTY MARKETS TO HIT SEVEN-YEAR HIGH IN 2014 Volumes are set to rise 10-15%, back above US$1 trillion for the first time since 2007
According to Cushman & Wakefields latest capital markets research, the global property investment market is picking up momentum. Volumes are set to rise 10-15% in 2014 to back above US$1 trillion for the first time since 2007. This comes after an estimated 8.4% increase delivered 2013 investment sales of US$978bn.
Annual Investment Volume (including land and multifamilly)
$1,500
$1,125
$750
$375
$0
2007 2008
2009 2010
EMEA Americas Asia Pacific
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
2011
2012 2013
2014
According to David Hutchings, Head of EMEA Research at Cushman & Wakefield: The growing level of optimism and activity we are seeing in most regions has its roots in a belief that the global economy is set for calmer waters ahead and that financial imbalances are on the mend. This is leading to an increase in risk appetites which is manifest in a push to invest across borders, a move towards second tier assets and a narrowing in the prime to secondary yield gap.
The speed with which sentiment has turned is surprising many and leading some to question whether investment markets are getting too far ahead of the occupational cycle. Some in fact believe a liquidity driven bubble is building up in some areas which will burst when the Federal Reserve and others start to rein in quantitative easing. However while there are ongoing downside risks and the recovery is very much multi-speed, tapering should be co-incident with better economic and corporate
2 confidence – and hence should be accompanied by better occupational demand and growing property incomes.
Overall Hutchings suggests With bond yields already increased, the main impact of an end to QE will be felt in emerging markets as liquidity drops. However it should also be taken as a reminder that investors need to stay focussed on fundamental real estate drivers. In particular the mismatch between supply and demand must be understood, and this is both in terms of quantity and quality given the changes underway in what occupiers actually want. The Outlook in 2014 by Region Volumes have risen most rapidly in the Americas but EMEA and Asia are both expected to pick up next year, with foreign players a key part of this. Cross border activity is already growing in all areas, to above 12% in the Americas and Asia for example, but standing at over 40% in EMEA and likely to rise further.
30%
23%
15%
8%
0% Americas
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Americas APAC
APAC
Change in Investment on 2013  Change in Investment in 2014 Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA. All sector including land and multifamily
Americas leading the way again
The Americas have led the way once more for growth this year and look set to repeat this in 2014, with an 18-20% increase forecast.The US is very much the engine for this, with Canada growing but held back by high
prices and stock shortages while Latin America has seen a mixed picture.
With leasing markets firming, smaller lag between occupational and investment cycles than most other the US has a markets Wakefield.commented Rob Griffin in the US Capital Markets team at Cushman &However while
better recent jobs data is encouraging a more upbeat mood it is also bringing forward the start of tapering and a further increase in bond yields. Prime yields are therefore likely to largely mark time in the months to come but with more demand and financing, I can see secondary yields continuing to edge down as the recovery in jobs spreads out.
Looking to Latin America, while downside risks remain, the general prognosis is for the economy in most countries to be somewhat stronger which will be a positive for occupier demand across the region. According
to Marcelo da Costa Santos,Vice-President, Capital Markets South America at Cushman & Wakefield,Thanks in
particular to growth in Mexico and stronger demand in the industrial sector, investment activity is up this year despite the less stable economic background and with that now firming, we expect investment volumes to rise again in 2014.
3 Mexico will remain in high demand, as will Brazil as the spotlight of the World Cup gets stronger but a range of other regional markets are gaining favour, led by Colombia and Peru.
Polarizing markets in Asia Pacific
In Asia Pacific, a 5-7% increase in trading activity is forecast for next year after a modest rise of 1-2% in 2013, with growth tracking that of the economy and delivering slower but also less volatile performance than in
recent years.Within the region however trends are going to be heavily polarized according to John Stinson, Head of Capital Markets in Asia Pacific for Cushman & Wakefield,Investors in core markets are accepting that
lower returns are the new normal but they are also looking forward to more stability and hence are happy to invest in core assets for the long term.Those with shorter term or higher return horizon however are ready to make sales in the core to redeploy their capital to higher growth sectors and geographies. Emerging Asian markets are therefore likely to be busier next year with Manila, Jakarta and Bengaluru offering great potential according to our research
At the same time,Asia will continue to export capital at an accelerating rate both within the region and around the world with emerging markets favoured in Asia but core product in core markets top of the agenda in other global regions for now.According to Stinson,The impact of Asian players on the global stage is set to grow
exponentially, with China and Japan both increasing their overseas spending and second and third tiers of institutional and private capital also set to ow faster from areas such as China, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore.
Europe has strong upside potential European volumes are forecast to rise 13-15% next year and while this may only be a 6 rather than a 7 year market high, the recovery is deepening and with more regional and global capital being diverted towards property, there appears more upside than downside potential in 2014. According to Jan Willem Bastijn, Head of European Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield,We have an increasingly optimistic view for activity in Europe next year. Were assuming a sharpening in prices helps to bring stock to the market to feed this but it will be the stock question that decides how high we can go, given the weight of capital and now better availability of debt.
Geographically, the European market is broadening out, with opportunistic players leading
the way in to what were previously overlooked areas in southern and eastern Europe,
typically seeking core quality assets in large cities.According to BastijnWith austerity easing
and economic growth slow but generally up, better news will continue to spread out in
occupier as well as investor markets. However supply will be the big factor for occupiers not
just investors in 2014, with a lack of development impacting on choice and leading to higher pricing and in all likelihood better performance in some non-core markets.
Investment Volume (US$bn) 2012 Americas $278.5 APAC $431.6 EMEA $192.1 Global $902.2 Cushman & Wakefield, RCA (all sectors including land and multifamily)
-ENDS-
For more information, please contact: Helen Basil Cushman & Wakefield Tel: + 44 (0)20 7152 5110 / +44 (0)7793 808 110
2013 $335.4 $439.2 $203.1 $977.7
2014 $399.1 $465.6 $231.5 $1,096.2
4
Cushman & Wakefield is the worlds largest privately-estate services firm.The company advises and representsheld commercial real clients on all aspects of property occupancy and investment, and has established a preeminent position in the worlds major markets, as evidenced by its frequent involvement in many of the most significant property leases, sales and assignments. Founded in 1917, it has 253 offices in 60 countries and more than 14,000 employees. It offers a complete range of services for all property types, including leasing, sales and acquisitions, equity, debt and structured finance, corporate finance and investment banking, corporate services, property management, facilities management, project management, consulting and appraisal.The firm has more than $4 billion in assets under management globally.A recognized leader in local and global real estate research, the firm publishes its market information and studies online at www.cushmanwakeeld.com/knowledge.