Sigma

European Commission Eurostat

Description

The bulletin of European statistics2/2009
Activities of the institutions and bodies
General statistics
Target audience: Specialised/Technical

Sujets

• Eurostat
• Statistics
• Periodical publication
• Economie gestion

Informations

• Publié par: EUROPEAN-COMMISSION-EUROSTAT
• Nombre de lectures: 18
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

ISSN 1018-5739

SIGM THE BULLETIN OF EUROPEAN STATISTICS

02 2009

Modern tools for business cycle analysis

Colloquium in Luxembourg

SIGMA0209

2 modern   tools forbusiness cycle   analysis

Editorial At   the   end   of 2008, followinga   now   established   tradition   of bringingtogether   academics, statisticiansand   usersofofficial statistics, Eurostat   organised   an   international colloquium   in   Luxembourgon   modern   tools forbusiness cycle   analysis. The   impressive   attendance   ofover200 participants,includingmanyeminentguests from   Europe,theUSA,Canada, Korea   andAustralia,was clearproofofan   increased   interest   in   the   topicat   a   time   of globaleconomicturmoil. Macroeconomic statistics,and   especiallyeuro-indicators, give   an   overall picture   ofthe   economic situation   and   are key for   analysing business cyclesand   thus for policymaking based   onsound   economicmodelsandshort-termforecasts. In   thepastcouple   of years, Eurostat   hasmadeprogressin   improvingthequalityand   timeliness ofthe   indicators. We   have   achieved   remarkable   resultsthanksto   theflash   estimation   ofGDP, inflation   and   retailtrade. Moreover,we   are cooperatingwith Member Statesto   developa   methodologyto   increasesubstantiallythe   timelinessofGDP   and   thelabourcost   index. We   arecomplementingtraditionaldata-gatheringtechniqueswith   advancedstatisticaland   econometricmethods. We   are   attemptingto further fill gapsin   timeliness, length   ofthe   seriesand   availabilityofhigh-frequencyindicatorsto better serve   our   main partners:the   Directorate-General forEconomicand   Financial Affairsand   theEuropean   Central Bank. Thisiswhywe   need   the   regularfeedback from   allthose   who   workwith   our   databut   also   those   who   developtheir   own   methodsofdata production   and   analysis. The colloquia   organisedby Eurostat   are   onesuchpossibility. The Luxembourgmeeting focused   on   the current statisticaltoolsand   methodologies.In   parallel sessions,we   tackled   topics such   as forecastingofmacroeconomic variables,estimates ofeconomicindicators,impact   ofrevisionsonshort-term   analysis, qualityimprovement   of infra-annual statistics,univariate   and   multivariate business cycle   modellingand   effectsof globalisation   on   thebusiness cycle. Needlesstosay,we   also   discussed   how   wecan   improvecooperation   in   thefield   to   thebenefit   ofallinvolved parties. After   all,economists, statisticians, financialanalystsand   academics alike   willagree   that   a   well-structured   and   methodologically soundEuropeanframework for   business cycle   analysisisagoalwellworthstriving for!

Marie Bohatá Deputy Director-General Eurostat