Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries

Alex F. Mccalla And John Nash

Description

In the ongoing Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization negotiations, developing countries have had much greater leverage, due at least in part to their large and growing share of world trade. But will the increased influence of developing countries translate into a final agreement that is truly more development-friendly? What would be key ingredients in such a final outcome of the negotiations, and what would the developing countries really get out of it. This two volume set seeks to answer these questions.
This volume (Volume 2) addresses the question of how a development-friendly outcome to the talks would affect developing countries by quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It presents several different approaches to modeling the effects of the outcome of negotiations, and then investigates why these (and other) modeling efforts produce such divergent results.
Volume 1 is issues-oriented. It takes up some key questions in the negotiations, setting the stage with a historical overview of the Doha Development Agenda to help identify issues of most significance to developing countries, and then explores select issues in greater depth.
Aimed at policymakers and stakeholders, this two-volume effort puts into the public domain important analytical work that will improve the chance for a pro-development outcomes of the Doha round negotiations.

Sujets

• World Trade Organization
• Alimony
• Export subsidy
• Agricultural subsidy
• Developing country
• Market access
• Agriculture

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 09 novembre 2006
• Nombre de lectures: 22
• EAN13: 9780821367179
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Reforming
Agricultural Trade for
Developing Countries
Alex F. McCalla and John Nash, Editors
VOLUME TWO
QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF
MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORMReforming
AGRICULTURAL
TRADE FOR
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIESAGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Reforming
AGRICULTURAL
TRADE FOR
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
Volume Two: Quantifying the Impact
of Multilateral Trade Reform
Alex F. McCalla & John Nash, editors
THE WORLD BANK
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e-ISBN: 0-8213-6717-X DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6716-2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries / edited by Alex F.
McCalla, John Nash.
p. cm. — (Agriculture and rural development)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contents: v. 1. Key issues for a pro-development outcome of the
Doha Round negotiations — v. 2. Quantifying the impact of multi-
lateral trade reform.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6496-3 (pbk. : v. 1)
ISBN-10: 0-8213-6496-0 (pbk. : v. 1)
ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6716-2 (pbk. : v. 2)
ISBN-10: 0-8213-6716-1 (pbk. : v. 2)
1. World Trade Organization—Developing countries. 2. Agriculture
and state—Developing countries. 3. Developing countries—Commerce.
I. McCalla, Alex F., 1937– . II. Nash, John D., 1953– .
HF1385.R42 2006
382′.41091724—dc22 2006049111CONTENTS
Boxes, Figures, and Tables viii
Preface xiii
1. Agricultural Trade Reform and Developing Countries:
Issues, Challenges, and Structure of the Volume 1
Alex F. McCalla and John Nash
Why Are Agricultural Trade Reforms Important? 2
What Is Important to Ensure a Pro-Development and Pro-Poor
Outcome from the Doha Negotiations? 5
How to Design, Sequence, and Implement Trade Policy Reform
at the Country Level 12
Roadmap for the Volume 15
A Closing Comment: Putting This Quantitative Analysis in a
Broader Perspective 17
Notes 17
Bibliography 18
2. Review and Synthesis of Empirical Results of Studies of
World Trade Organization Agricultural Trade Reform 20
H. Bruce Huff, Ekaterina Krivonos, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
Description of the Models and Scenarios 21
Summary of Principal Results 24
Consistency in Results 30
Apparent Inconsistencies in Results 32
vResults from Other Studies 33
Implications for Policy and Future Work 35
Notes 38
Bibliography 39
3. Reducing Agricultural Tariffs or Domestic Support:
Which Is More Important for Developing Countries? 40
Benard Hoekman, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga
Tariffs and Domestic Support in Agriculture 41
Analytical Framework 43
Empirical Methodology 55
Results 56
Conclusion 67
Annex. Data Sources 68
Notes 76
Bibliography 78
4. Projecting the Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalization
on Trade, Prices, and Economic Benefits 79
Mark W. Rosegrant and Siet Meijer
Modeling Framework 80
Specification of Agricultural Trade Liberalization Scenarios 81
Trade Liberalization Impacts on Cereal and Livestock Trade 81
Impacts on Commodity Prices 84
Economic Benefits of Trade Liberalization 85
Conclusion 87
Notes 87
Bibliography 88
5. Projecting the Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalization
on Developing Countries Using the ATPSM Partial
Equilibrium Model 90
David Vanzetti and Ramesh Sharma
Tariff Rate Quotas and Quota Rents 91
The Modeling Framework 93
Simulations 98
Estimation Results 100
Implications and Conclusions 106
Notes 111
Bibliography 111
6. Potential Gains from Post-Uruguay Round Trade Policy Reform:
Impacts on Developing Countries 112
Betina V. Dimaranan,Thomas W. Hertel, and Will Martin
Data and Methodology 113
Policy Scenarios 118
Results 120
vi CONTENTSConclusions 140
Notes 142
Bibliography 143
7. Agricultural Trade Reform in the WTO:
Special Treatment for Developing Countries 146
Ivan Roberts, Benjamin Buetre, and Frank Jotzo
Main Findings 146
Introduction 148
Overview of Present WTO Market Access and Domestic Support
Arrangements General Agreement 150
Special Provisions for Developing Countries 151
Approaches to Change 153
Issues in the Current Negotiations 161
Market Access Reform 167
Domestic Support 176
Options for Addressing Food Insecurity 177
Concluding Comment 179
Notes 180
Bibliography 180
8. The Medium-Term Impacts of Trade Liberalization in OECD Countries
on the Food Security of Nonmember Economies 183
Wyatt Thompson, Garry Smith, and Armelle Elasri
Introduction 183
Nonmember Economies Classification System 192
Partial Equilibrium (Aglink) Results 202
General Equilibrium (GTAP) Results 219
Conclusions 245
Notes 247
Bibliography 250
Contributors 253
Index 255
viiCONTENTSBOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES
Boxes
2.1 Comparing Model Results—Methods and Pitfalls 25
2.2 Consistency of Model Studies in the Volume with Other General
Equilibrium Results 36
3.1 Domestic Support Categories under the WTO Aggregate Measurement
of Support 57
7.1 Least Developed Countries that Are Members of the WTO and Exempt
from Reduction Commitments 152
7.2 Selected Proposals Advanced by Some Developing Countries and
Nongovernment Organizations 155
7.3 Measures for Limiting the Harmful Effects of Special Safeguards
on Trade 164
7.4 Country Categories in This Modeling Application 170
8.1 Contributions of the Two Modeling Frameworks 188
8.2 Competition Index 194
8.3 Potential Self-Sufficiency Index 195
8.4 A Brief Description of Aglink 203
8.5 Indicators Produced by Aglink 205
viii