Tiger Economies Under Threat

Tiger Economies Under Threat

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In recent years, growth rates in the so-called 'Tiger economies' of Southeast Asia have been above the average not only for developing countries but for the world as a whole. Yet they fall short of the economic growth experienced during 1975-95. The underlying worry for policy makers is that the decrease presages the beginning of a downward trend, a worry that has been sharpened by the global recession. But are the Tiger economies under threat? And if so, what are the causes and how can they be addressed?
This book employs a comparative analysis of the Southeast Asian Tiger economies, centered on Malaysia, to tackle these questions. The findings presented will be of particular interest to policy makers, academics, business people, and researchers.

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Publié le 01 octobre 2009
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A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIA’S
INDUSTRIAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY OPTIONS
Shahid Yusuf and Kaoru NabeshimaTiger Economies
Under Threat Tiger Economies
Under Threat
A Comparative Analysis
of Malaysia’s Industrial Prospects
and Policy Options
Shahid Yusuf
Kaoru Nabeshima
Washington, D.C.© 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-7880-9
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8061-1
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7880-9
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data has been applied for.
Cover design by Drew Fasick, Serif Design Group.Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Chapter 1. Southeast Asia Faces Mounting Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Brief Development History of the Four Southeast Asian Tigers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
The East Asian Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
The Malaysian Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Analyzing Industrial Change in Southeast Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Tiger in the Spotlight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Chapter 2. Malaysia: The Quintessential Maturing Tiger Economy . . . . . . . . . . 17
Sources of Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Evolution of the Manufacturing Industry in Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Annex 2.A: Indicators of Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Chapter 3. Analyzing Comparative Advantage and Industrial Change:
Reading the Export Trade Tea Leaves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Exports and Industrial Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
An Overview of Export Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Chapter 4. Imports and Foreign Direct Investment: Competition and
Technology Transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Imports and Technology Transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Technology Infusion from FDI and Upgrading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Chapter 5. Leading and Faltering Industries: The Electronics, Auto Parts,
and Agro-Processing Sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Electronics and Electrical Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Auto Parts Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Palm Oil, Biodiesel, and Food Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
vvi Contents
Chapter 6. Can Southeast Asian Tiger Economies Become Innovative? . . . . . 119
Industrial Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Quality of Labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Access to Finance150
Chapter 7. From Technology Development to Innovation Capability. . . . . . . . . 159
R&D Spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
Patenting Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
Licensing and Technology Transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
Research Activities of Malaysian Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
Innovation Comparative Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Chapter 8. Can the Tigers Grow Fast and Furious Again? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Long-Run Growth187
How Neighboring Economies Can Affect Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Chapter 9. What Can the Tigers Do? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Appendix A
Revealed Comparative Advantage of East Asian Economies Other
than Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Appendix B
Product Space Analysis for Southeast Asian Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Appendix C
Research and Development Spending by Private Firms in Malaysia . . . . . . . . . 235
Appendix D
Index of Innovation Revealed Comparative Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Appendix E
Financial Incentives for Research and Development, Technology
Development, and Innovation in Chinese Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Appendix F
Financial Incentives for Research and Development, Technology
Development, and Innovation in Thai Firms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
Figures
2.1 Industrial Composition by Type of Manufacture, Malaysia,
1981, 1990, and 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2 Value-Added Ratios in Machinery in Selected East Asian Economies . . . . 27Contents vii
3.1 Share of Malaysia’s and Selected Southeast Asian Countries’ Exports
to the World, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.2 Share of Malaysia’s and SelectAsian Countries’ Exports
to the United States, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.3 Share of Malaysia’s and Selected Southeast Asian Countries’ Exports to
China, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.4 Exports of Malaysia by Type of Manufacture, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.5ts of Malaysia by Type of Mane, Excluding Electronics,
1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.6 Exports of Electronic and Electrical Manufactures, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . 43
3.7 Composition of Exports by Type of Manes, 1995 and 2007. . . . . . 46
3.8 Share of Overlapping Commodities, 1995, 2000, and 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.9 Share of Overlapping Trade Values, 1995, 2000, . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.10 Imports of Electronic Components by China from East Asian
Countries, 1995–2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.11 Imports of Electronic Components by China from East Asian
Countries, Excluding Japan and Korea, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.12 Imports of Electronic Components by China, According to
Economy of Origin, 1995–2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.13 Exports of Electronic Components by China According to Economy of
Destination, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.14 Unit Values of Digital Monolithic Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007 . . . . . . 70
3.15 Unit V Nondigital Monolithic Integrated Circuits, . . . 71
3.16 Unit Values of Hybrid Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.17 Unit V Electronic Integrated Circuits,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.18 Unit Values of Parts of Electronic Integrated Circuits and Similar
Items, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.19 Unit Values of Color Cathode Ray Television Picture Tubes and Similar
Items, 1995–200773
3.20 Product Space of Selected Southeast Asian Countries, 2000–04 . . . . . . . . 83
3.21 Pre of China, 2000–04 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
3.22 Composition of Service Exports from Malaysia, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . 88
3.23 Co Selected Service Exports from Malaysia, 1999–2007 . . . . 88
3.24 Service Exports from Southeast Asian Countries, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.1 Average Tariffs on Total Imports, 1995–2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.2 Average Tariffs on Machinery and Equipment Imports, 1995–2007 . . . . . 94
4.3 Composition of Machinermports by Malaysia,
1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4.4 Net Inflows of FDI, 1995–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.5 Top 12 FDI Sectors in Malaysia, 1999–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.6 Toalaysia, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.7 Composition of Radio, Television, and Communication FDI
Inflows into Malaysia by Source Economy, 1999–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101viii Contents
6.1 Secondary School Gross Enrollment Ratio, 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
6.2 Hybritech and Its Daughter Firms in San Diego142
6.3 Information and Communication Technology Investment and
Labor Productivity Growth, 1989–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
6.4 M2 as a Percentage of GDP, 1995–2007151
6.5 Domestic Credit to Private Sector, 1995–2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.6 Number of Deals in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, Including
All Stages, 1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
7.1 R&D Expenditure as a Share of GDP, 1996–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
7.2 Total R&D Personnel, 1999–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
7.3 Number of Researchers per Million People, 1996–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
7.4 Share of R&D Spending by Businesses, 2002–04 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
7.5 Distribution of R&D by Sectors, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7.6 Number of Published Papers in Professional Journals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
7.7 Malaysia’s U.S. Patents Relative to Those of Other
Countries, 1977–2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
7.8 Royalty and License Fee Receipts, 1995–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
7.9 Royaltense Fee Payments, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
7.10 Net Royalty and Licensing Payments, 1995–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
8.1 Per Capita GDP Growth of Germany, 1860–2003188
8.2 Perowth of the United Kingdom, 1860–2003 . . . . . . . . . 188
8.3 Perowth ofnited States, . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
8.4 Per Capita GDP Growth of Indonesia, 1960–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
8.5 Perowth of Japan, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
8.6 Perowth of the Republic of Korea, 1960–2003 . . . . . . . . 191
8.7 Per Capita GDP Growth of Malaysia, 1960–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
8.8 Perowth of the Philippines, 1960–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
8.9 Perowth of Taiwan, China, 1960–2003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
8.10 Per Capita GDP Growth of Thailand, 1960–2003193
8.11 Average Years of Schooling, 1960–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
8.12 Perowth and Labor Force with Tertiary Education:
Germany, 1860–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
8.13 Per Capita GDP Groworce with Tertiar
Japan, 1960–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
8.14 Perowth and Labor Force with Tertiary Education:
Republic of Korea, 1960–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
8.15 Per Capita GDP Groworce with Tertiar
Taiwan, China: 1960–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
8.16 Perowth and Labor Force with Tertiary Education:
United States, 1860–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
8.17 Per Capita GDP Groworce with Tertiar
Indonesia, 1960–2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197