World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010

The World Bank

Description

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 2, is the latest edition of the comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific region of the World Bank. Entitled 'Robust Recovery, Rising Risks,' this Update notes that output and trade flows have recovered to above pre-crisis levels throughout developing East Asia. Confidence is on the rise, and private sector investment is once again driving growth.
Yet greater confidence in the region's growth prospects and concerns about tepid economic expansion in advanced economies are confronting policy makers with a delicate balancing act. In particular, the return of large capital inflows to East Asia has caused currencies to appreciate substantially, and is leading to concerns about asset price bubbles. Countries need to address emerging risks at the same time as medium-term challenges to sustain strong growth. The need for China to rebalance the economy by altering the pattern of growth and investment is increasingly critical for sustainability. Commodity exporters in the region need to ensure a transparent framework to use resource-related revenues for development. The middle-income countries of the region, excluding China, need to raise investment in physical and human capital and encourage innovation if they are to eventually attain high-income status.
Presenting unique perspectives along with the latest data on the region, the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is a valued resource for policymakers, researchers, businesspersons, students, and anyone else with a serious interest in this dynamic region.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 17 novembre 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 26
• EAN13: 9780821384954
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2010, VOLUME 2
ROBUST RECOVERY,WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2010, VOLUME 2
Robust Recovery, Rising Risks© November 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.
The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily refl ect the views of the
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org.
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8495-4
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8647-7
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8495-4
ISSN: 2079-5874
Key title: World Bank East Asia and Pacifi c Economic Update … (Print)
Abbreviated key title: World Bank East Asia Pac. Econ. Update (Print)
Cover photo: ©iStockphoto.com/szefei
WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2010, VOL. 2iii
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The East Asia and Pacifi c Update was prepared by a team led by Ekaterina Vostroknutova (Senior Economist) with
guidance from Ivailo Izvorski (Lead Economist) and Vikram Nehru (East Asia and Pacifi c Regional Chief Economist
and Director, Department for Poverty Reduction, Economic Management, Private and Financial Sector Development).
The team included Antonio Ollero, Manohar Sharma, Martin Reichhuber, and Chul Ju Kim and received signifi cant
contributions from Syud Amer Ahmed, Virginia Horscroft, Andrew D. Mason, Nataliya Mylenko, Frederico Gil Sander,
Ashley Taylor, and Shahid Yusuf. Input was provided by country economists and analysts across the World Bank
offi ces in East Asia and the Pacifi c, and by Ahmad Ahsan, Kirida Bhaopichitr, Juan Feng, Hironori Kawauchi, Yue
Li, and Xiao Ye. Comments were provided by Enrique Blanco Armas, Milan Brahmbhatt, Gerard McLinden, Ardo
Hansson, Patchamuthu Illangovan, and Linda van Gelder.
East Asia as used in this report includes developing East Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand,
Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic [PDR], Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, and the
island economies in the Pacifi c), and the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs). The NIEs include Hong Kong SAR,
China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taiwan, China. Middle-income countries as used in this report refer to China,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Low-income countries as used in this report include Cambodia, Lao
PDR, and Vietnam. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries are Brunei Darussalam,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
ROBUST RECOVERY, RISING RISKSiv
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................iii
A bbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................... vi
Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1
I. The Continued Recovery ........................................................................................................................................ 3
After sharp increase, growth normalizes ............................................................................................................... 5
Export growth is slowing ................................ 6
Capital infl ows of all kinds surged ......................................................................................................................... 7
Employment is recovering, but more slowly than other key economic indicators .............................................. 10
Poverty reduction has resumed, but more slowly than before the crisis ............................................................ 11
Inclusive growth, quicker poverty reduction ....................................................................................................... 12
Box 1. Addressing rural-urban inequality in China ........................................................................................ 14
II. Emerging Risks .................................................................................................................................................... 16
Curbing infl ation, sustaining growth .................................................................................................................... 16
Box 2. On the watch for food security as prices edge up ............................................................................ 17
Exchange rates have appreciated strongly .......................................................................................................... 22
Managing the level and volatility of capital fl ows ...............................................................................................23
Box 3. China’s private outfl ows are becoming more noticeable .................................................................. 24
III. Escaping the Middle-Income Trap .................................................................................................................... 27
The need to ramp up investment ........................................................................................................................ 28
Box 4. Invest in the green economy, but beware of white elephants ..........................................................30
Facilitating innovation .......................................................................................................................................... 31
Box 5. What is innovation? ........................................................................................................................... 32
Investment climate for innovation .............................................................................................33
Getting together: industrial clusters and connectivity ......................................................................................36
Box 6. Smart innovation in the Pacifi c: connecting people ..........................................................................38
Equalizing opportunities for a creative workforce.............................................................................................38
Finance: from grassroots to frontier ................................................................................................................. 41
Box 7. Some low-hanging fruit in SME fi nancing .........................................................................................43
WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2010, VOL. 2CONTENTS v
Country Pages and Key Indicators .........................................................................................................................44
Cambodia ............................................................................................................................................................44
China ................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Fiji ........................................................................................................................................................................50
Indonesia ............................................................................................................................................................. 52
Lao PDR ..............................................................................................................................................................56
Malaysia ......................................................................................................................59
Mongolia ......