Two Dragon Heads

Shahid Yusuf

Description

Beijing and Shanghai comprise the axes of China's two leading urban regions. Their economic fortunes will affect the overall growth of China. The economic composition of the two megacities differs significantly and the future sources of competitive advantage also lie in different areas although there is some overlap. Shanghai with its diverse industrial base is the industrial powerhouse of China. Its strongest growth prospects still lie in activities associated with manufacturing industry buttressed by improvements in the technological and innovation capabilities of domestic firms and supported by the deepening of business services. In contrast, Beijing's future prospects are more closely tied to research intensive activities and the services industry. This book explores the contrasting development options available to Beijing and Shanghai and proposes strategies for these cities based on their current and acquired capabilities, experience of other world cities, the emerging demand in the national market, and likely trends in global trade.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 11 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 10
• EAN13: 9780821381281
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Shahid Yusuf and
Kaoru Nabeshima
TWO
DRAGON
HEADS
Contrasting
Development
Paths for Beijing
and ShanghaiTwo Dragon HeadsTwo Dragon Heads
Contrasting Development Paths for
Beijing and Shanghai
Shahid Yusuf
Kaoru Nabeshima
Washington, D.C.© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
E-mail: feedback@w
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed
in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World
Bank or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The
boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work
do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of
any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Rights and Permissions
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or
all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of
its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with
complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive,
Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: [phone]; fax: [phone]; Internet:
www.copyright.com.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to
the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA;
fax: [phone]; e-mail: [e-mail].
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8048-2
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8128-1
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8048-2
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Yusuf, Shahid, 1949–
Two dragon heads : contrasting development paths for Beijing and Shanghai / Shahid
Yusuf and Kaoru Nabeshima.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8048-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-8128-1 (electronic)
1. Economic development—China—Beijing. 2. Economic development—China—
Shanghai. 3. Beijing (China)—Economic policy. 4. Shanghai (China)—Economic policy.
I. Nabeshima, Kaoru. II. World Bank. III. Title.
HC428.B4Y87 2009
338.951'132—dc22
2009036023
Cover design by Drew Fasick, Serif Design Group.Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
About the Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Strategies for Beijing and Shanghai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Rethinking Urban Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Chapter 2. China’s Development and Its Megacities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Seven Factors Contributing to Chinese Success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Outlook for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Chapter 3. Manufacturing Industry: Locomotive for Innovation
and Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Why a Broad Manufacturing Base Matters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
The Case for Complex Capital Goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Industrial Productivity and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Chapter 4. Pitfalls of Early Deindustrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Expansion of Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Five Stylized Tendencies and Their Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Chapter 5. . . . Economic Composition, Resources, and the Emerging Innovation
Potentials in Beijing and Shanghai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
The Industrial Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
The Financial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Labor and Skills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Tertiary Education and the Innovation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Innovation Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Venture Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Megacities: Moving to a More Innovative Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
vvi Contents
Chapter 6. Making Industries Innovative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Urban Strategy and Policy Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Concluding Observations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Figures
2.1 GDP Composition of China, 1979–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.2 Share of Exports in GDP and Growth of Exports in
China, 1979–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3 Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to China, 1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.1 Relationship between the Share of Manufacturing and
Per Capita Income, 1960–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2 Reeen the Share of Manufacturing and
Growth for OECD Countries, 1961–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.3 Relationship between the Share of Manufacturing and
Growth for East Asian Economies, 1961–2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.4 R&D Spending as a Share of Sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.5 R&D Intensity by Industry in 10 OECD Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.6 Top R&D Spending Sectors among Top 1,000 R&D Spenders . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.7 Share of U.S. Patents by Industry, 1986. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.8 Share of U.S. Patents by Industry, 200643
5.1 GDP Composition, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.2 Share of Establishments, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.3 Share of 200479
5.4 Share of GVIO, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.5 Share of, 200480
5.6 GVIO in Shanghai, by Ownership Categories, 1994–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.7 GVIO in Beijing, by Owegories, 1995–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.8 Full-Time Equivalent of R&D Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
5.9 R&D Expenditure by Different Organizations, 2000–0684
5.10 Distribution of R&D Expenditure in Shanghai, by
Type of Activity, 2001–06 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
5.11 Distribution ofe in Beijing, by
Type of Activity, 2002–07104
5.12 R&D Expenditure in Shanghai, by Type of Institution, 2001–06 . . . . . . . 105
5.13 Locations of R&D Investments by MNCs, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.14 Prospective R&D Locations Considered Most Attractive, 2005–09 . . . . . 108
5.15 Number of Papers Published in International Journals, 1998–2005 . . . . 124
5.16 N Scientific Papers Published in International
Journals According to Science Citation Index, 1998–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
5.17 Changes in Share of New Product Output in
Shanghai, 1994–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Contents vii
5.18 FDI Inflow to Shanghai, 1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
5.19 FDI Used in Beijing, 1987–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
6.1 Product Space for China, 2000–04 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
6.2 Components of the Boston Life Sciences Cluster . . .