The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict : towards a just peace or inevitable war

Fazil Zeynalov

Description

The purpose of this book is to analyse the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh from a historical, geopolitical and legal perspective. The inter-state nature of the conflict means this could destabilise the entire region. Azerbaijan and Armenia have come out in favour of a peaceful solution, but the negociations have stalled and the threat of war continues to hang over the region. Thus, it is down to the leaders on both sides finally to agree on a peaceful outcome that would allow their countries to live in harmony.

Sujets

• Défense
• Armée
• Géopolitique
• Diplomatie
• Relations internationales
• Securite
• Diplomatie et stratégie

Informations

• Publié par: L'Harmattan
• Date de parution: 01 juillet 2012
• Nombre de lectures: 60
• EAN13: 9782296498389
• Langue: Français
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: towards a just peace or inevitable war

« Diplomatie et stratégie » Collection dirigée par Emmanuel Caulier

Ouvrages parus Mehdi LAZAR,Qatar, une Education City. Délocalisation des campus universitaires et globalisation de l'enseignement supérieur,2012. Alexandre HENRY,La privatisation de la sécurité. Logiques d’intrusion des sociétés militaires privées,2012. Philippe DEPRÉDURAND,L’Union européenne et la mer, ou les limbes d’une puissance maritime, 2011. Marie-Charlotte BURNET, Sarah Dubreil, Anaïs Mirval, Laura Pajot Moricheau,La Gestion des fleuves dans la stratégie d’expansion régionale de la Chine, 2011. Valériane ÉTÉ, Clémentine LEPAIS et Samantha VACHEZ,Géopolitique des technologies de l’information et de la communication au Moyen-Orient. Entre compétitivité étatique et stratégie de contrôle, 2011. Cristina AGUIAR et Khamliènhe NHOUYVANISVONG (ambassadeurs), Guide pratique de la négociation internationale, 2010. D'ABOVILLE (Robert),Investissements pétroliers chinois en Afrique, 2010, MIGNOT (Bruno),Il était une fois des militaires. Chronique d’une mutation en cours, 2009. LODDO (Jean-François),Le Nouvel Ordre du puzzle des Balkans, 2009. MALLATRAIT (Clémence), en collaboration avec Thomas Meszaros,La e France, puissance inattendue au XXI siècle dans le Pacifique Sud, 2009. DEREUMAUX (René-Maurice),L’Organisation internationale de la e francophonie. L’institution internationale du XXI siècle, 2008. COJOCARU (Doru),Géopolitique de la mer Noire. Eléments d’approche, 2008. LEFEBVRE (Jean-Luc),: du feu àA la recherche du cinquième élément l’espace, une brève histoire de conquêtes, 2008. MIGNOT (Bruno),Regard d’un militaire sur la société française. La République nous appelle, 2007. MEYER (Michel),La nouvelle diplomatie commerciale brésilienne. Lula : danse avec le soleil, 2005.

Fazil Zeynalov The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: towards a just peace or inevitable war A historical, geopolitical and legal approach Prefaceby Emmanuel Caulier

Translated from the French by Dr Myles O’Byrne

© L’Harmattan, 2012 5-7, rue de l’Ecole-Polytechnique, 75005 Paris http://www.librairieharmattan.com [e-mail] [e-mail] ISBN : 978-2-296-99593-2 EAN : 9782296995932

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS.......................................................................... 11 PREFACE.........................................................................................13 Introduction...................................................................................... 17 Chapter I Early political history of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the time of Caucasian Albania........................................................ 25 1.1. Caucasian Albania and Nagorno-Karabakh ............................ 26 1.1.1. The South Caucasus: Albania and the Armenian factor... 27 1.1.2. Nagorno-Karabakh as a province of Caucasian Albania.. 31 1.2. The rise and fall of Caucasian Albania ................................... 33 1.2.1. Albania as a sovereign and semi-sovereign political entity ........................................................................................... 33 1.2.2. Albania under the reign of Javanshir................................ 36 1.2.3. The demise of Albanian political unity ............................ 40 1.3. The Albanians and the formation of the Azerbaijani people... 42 1.4. Christianity, identity in Caucasian Albania and the Albanians of Nagorno-Karabakh ..................................................................... 47 1.4.1. The spread of Christianity ................................................ 47 1.4.2. The problem of emerging strands within Christianity...... 52 1.4.3. The Albanian conversion to Islam following the arrival of the Arabs ................................................................................ 54 1.4.4. The demise of the Albanian Catholicos ........................... 58 1.4.5. Continuity of the Albanian identity among Albanians in Nagorno-Karabakh ..................................................................... 59 1.5. Nagorno-Karabakh in the Middle Ages .................................. 62 Chapter II The deterioration in inter-ethnic relations and the Russian empire’s annexation of the South Caucasus.................................. 65 2.1. The khanate of Karabakh: a Tsarist annexation of an independent and feudal Azerbaijani state....................................... 66 2.2. Shusha: a strategic and cultural bastion .................................. 74 2.3. The nature of Russian domination........................................... 76 2.4. The Azerbaijani struggle to have their rights recognised ........ 81 2.4.1. The modernisation movement .......................................... 81 2.4.2. The movement for the recognition of national identity.... 87 2.5. Worsening relations between Azerbaijanis and Armenians .... 91 2.5.1. Russian ethnic policy in the South Caucasus ................... 91

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2.5.2. Peter the Great’s expedition into the South Caucasus ...... 93 2.5.3. Russian attitudes towards Christians in the South Caucasus ..................................................................................... 98 2.5.4. Mass displacement of Armenians within the region ...... 101 Chapter III th The emergence of the conflict at the beginning of the 20 century............................................................................................. 109 3.1. The events of 1905 and the first armed clashes..................... 110 3.2. The March 1918 massacres in Baku and the second round of armed clashes ........................................................................... 123 3.2.1. The political landscape after the October revolution ..... 123 3.2.2. The Bolshevik-Armenian alliance .................................. 128 3.2.3. The Baku massacres ....................................................... 131 3.3. Independence won in 1918.................................................... 135 3.3.1. The birth of new independent republics ......................... 135 3.3.2. Azerbaijan gives up Yerevan ......................................... 140 3.3.3. The liberation of Baku.................................................... 141 3.4. The question of Nagorno-Karabakh: 1918-1920................... 145 3.4.1. Nagorno-Karabakh: an integral part of the Republic of Azerbaijan ................................................................................ 146 3.4.2. Territorial claims ............................................................ 153 3.4.3. Armenian-Azeri rivalries and Bolshevik control of Azerbaijan ................................................................................ 155 Chapter IV The conflict during the Soviet era................................................. 163 4.1. Soviet policy on national groups favoured the emergence of conflicts and not their resolution.............................................. 164 4.2. Territorial claims over Zangezur and Nagorno-Karabakh .... 172 4.2.1. The allocation of Zangezur to Armenia ......................... 172 4.2.2. Autonomy granted to Nagorno-Karabakh ...................... 179 4.2.3. Developments in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations ......... 185 4.3. A weakened USSR and the resurgence of the conflict.......... 191 4.3.1. Legal disarray and the emergence of the conflict........... 192 4.3.2. Ambiguous attempts in Moscow to take the situation in hand ...................................................................................... 196 4.3.3. Radicalisation of the parties ........................................... 199 4.3.4. On the cusp of war.......................................................... 201

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Chapter V Independence against a backdrop of war..................................... 207 5.1. International armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia ........................................................................................ 208 5.2. Factors preventing an end to the military escalation ............. 218 5.2.1. Strategy of the protagonists: a preference for war over peace ......................................................................................... 218 5.2.1.1. The Azerbaijani strategy ......................................... 218 5.2.1.2. The Armenian strategy ............................................ 223 5.2.2. The Russian factor .......................................................... 225 Chapter VI The conflict against a new regional geopolitical backdrop......... 229 6.1. Russia: a major power in the South Caucasus....................... 230 6.1.1. The new Russian foreign policy ..................................... 231 6.1.2. Russian dominance in the South Caucasus .................... 239 6.1.3. Russian military power in the conflict zone ................... 245 6.2. Other regional powers in the South Caucasus ....................... 249 6.2.1. Turkey: a key player....................................................... 249 6.2.1.1. Turkish policy in the South Caucasus ..................... 250 6.2.1.2. Factors impeding the normalisation of Turco- Armenian relations ............................................................... 254 6.2.1.3. Towards strengthened military cooperation with Azerbaijan ............................................................................ 258 6.2.2. Iran tries to find its place within the South Caucasus .... 260 6.2.3. Heavy US involvement in the region ............................. 266 Chapter VII The involvement of the OSCE and Russia in managing the crisis: competition, rivalries and cooperation.............................. 277 7.1. The OSCE’s involvement in the peace process ..................... 279 7.1.1. OSCE measures for peaceful conflict resolution ........... 280 7.1.2. The role of the OSCE’s Minsk Group ............................ 285 7.2. Russian mediation ................................................................. 293 7.3. Peacekeeping operations ....................................................... 301 7.3.1. OSCE commitment to mounting a multinational peacekeeping operation ............................................................ 301 7.3.2. Russia’s efforts to lead its own peacekeeping operation 306 7.4. The role of the European Union in settling the conflict ........ 310 Chapter VIII The notion of aggression in the conflict........................................ 317 8.1. Convening the UN Security Council ..................................... 318

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8.2. The attitude of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation ...... 323 8.3. The notion of indirect aggression and the responsibility of Armenia ........................................................................................ 325 Chapter IX The principles of conflict settlement............................................. 331 9.1. Difficulties associated with the positions of the parties ........ 332 9.1.1. Differing points of view ................................................. 332 9.1.2. The arguments put forward by the parties ...................... 335 9.2. The challenge of Armenian policy in the occupied territories ...................................................................................... 339 9.3. The challenge of interpreting conflict settlement principles: the principle of territorial integrity and the right to self- determination................................................................................ 342 9.3.1. The principle of territorial integrity................................ 343 9.3.2. The right to self-determination....................................... 345 9.4. The assertion of conflict settlement principles by the OSCE, Council of Europe, and the European Union ............................... 353 9.4.1. The position adopted by the OSCE ................................ 353 9.4.2. The position adopted by the Council of Europe............. 356 9.4.3. The position adopted by the European Union ................ 360 Chapter X Conflict resolution via victory or compromise: what path to peace?.............................................................................................. 363 10.1. Restructuring the Minsk Group chairmanship .................... 364 10.2. The impotence of the Minsk Group to resolve the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict ......................................................................... 367 10.2.1. The failure of its first written peace proposals and the win-win approach ..................................................................... 368 10.2.2. Stalemate in the peace process and a win-lose scenario..................................................................................... 373 10.3. Back to scratch: the Madrid principles ................................ 375 10.4. Peace built on compromise and a satisfactory outcome for the parties is the only way to avoid war ............................................. 383 Conclusion....................................................................................... 389 BIBLIOGRAPHY.......................................................................... 393 INDEX............................................................................................. 415 APPENDICES................................................................................ 419