Beyond Reforms

José Antonio Ocampo

Description

'Beyond Reforms' argues that economic growth in developing countries is intrinsically tied to the dynamics of production structures, to the specific policies and institutions created to support it, and the creation of linkages among domestic firms and sectors. Avoiding macroeconomic instability is also essential. However, macroeconomic stability is not a sufficient condition for growth. The broader institutional context and the adequate provision of education and infrastructure are essential 'framework conditions,' but generally do not play a direct role in bringing about changes in the momentum of economic growth.

Sujets

• Economic growth
• Developing country
• Macroeconomics
• Éducation
• Infrastructure

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 15 juillet 2005
• Nombre de lectures: 14
• EAN13: 9780821358207
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Beyond
Reforms
STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS
AND MACROECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY
Edited By
José Antonio Ocampo
ECONOMIC COMMISSION
FOR LATIN AMERICA AND
STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESSTHE CARIBBEANBeyond ReformsBeyond Reforms
Structural Dynamics
and Macroeconomic
Vulnerability
Editor
José Antonio Ocampo
A COPUBLICATION OF STANFORD ECONOMICS AND FINANCE,
AN IMPRINT OF STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, AND THE WORLD BANK © 2005 United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
(ECLAC)
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Washington, DC 20433
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Internet www.worldbank.org
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All rights reserved.
1 2 3 4 08 07 06 05
A copublication of Stanford Economics and Finance, an imprint of Stanford University
Press, and the World Bank.
Stanford University Press The World Bank
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.
ISBN 0-8213-5819-7 (World Rights except North America)
ISBN 0-8047-5272-9 (Hardcover) (North America)
ISBN 0-8047-5273-7 (Softcover)
e-ISBN 0-8213-5820-0
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-5819-7Latin American
Development Forum Series
This series was created in 2003 to promote, debate, and disseminate
information and analysis, and convey the excitement and complexity of
the most topical issues in economic and social development in Latin America
and the Caribbean. It is sponsored by the Inter-American Development
Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean, and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for publication
represent the highest quality in each institution’s research and activity out-
put, and have been selected for their relevance to the academic community,
policy makers, researchers, and interested readers.
Advisory Committee Members
Inés Bustillo, Director, Washington Office, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
José Luis Guasch, Regional Adviser, Latin America and Caribbean Re-
gion, World Bank
Steven Haber, A. A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Department of
Political Science, Stanford University; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fel-
low, the Hoover Institution
Eduardo Lora, Principal Adviser, Research Department, Inter-American
Development Bank
José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo E. Perry, Chief Economist, Latin America and Caribbean Re-
gion, World Bank
Luis Servén, Lead Economist, Latin America and Caribbean Region,
World BankContents
Introduction xi
PART ONE GROWTH AND THE DYNAMICS
OF PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE
1T HE QUEST FOR DYNAMIC EFFICIENCY: STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 3
2T RADE OPENNESS AND TECHNOLOGY GAPS IN LATIN AMERICA:
A “LOW-GROWTH TRAP”45
3F OUR SOURCES OF “DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION” AND A NEW
CONCEPT OF THE “DUTCH DISEASE71
4G LOBALIZATION, RISING LABOR INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY
IN LATIN AMERICA 117
PART TWO MACROECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES
5D EVELOPING-ECONOMY CYCLES 145
6F ISCAL POLICY EFFICACY AND PRIVATE DEFICITS:
A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH 161
7E XTERNAL DEBT, GROWTH, AND SUSTAINABILITY 189
8D IVERGENCE AND GROWTH COLLAPSES: THEORY AND
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 211
Index 233viii CONTENTS
FIGURES
1.1 Productivity and GDP Dynamics 27
1.2 Effects of a New Wave of Innovations 28
1.3 Effects of Favorable Macroeconomic Shock 29
1.4 Three Possible Outcomes 31
2.1 Trade Multiplier and Its Determinants 51
2.2 Imports and Exports in the Postreform Period
(Annual Growth Rates) 53
2.3 Growth and Trade Balance 54
2.4 Trade Multiplier in the Latin American Countries,
Before and After Reforms 57
2.5 Trade Multiplier, 1970–80 and 1985 to the Last Year
of the Postreform Period 64
3.1 Manufacturing and Services in the EU, 1960–2000 73
3.2 Rowthorn’s Regression: Manufacturing Employment
and Income Per Capita, 1990 76
3.3 Second Source of De-Industrialization: A Declining
Relationship, 1960–98 77
3.4 Third Source of De-Industrialization: A Changing
Turning Point in the Regression, 1960–98 80
3.5 Fourth Source of De-Industrialization: Cases of
Overshooting? 82
3.6 Primary Commodity and Export Services Effects, 1998 83
3.7 Changes in Manufacturing Employment and Income in
Primary Commodities, 1960 and 1998 84
3.8 a. The Netherlands: Unraveling the Dutch Disease,
1960–98; b. The United Kingdom: Catching the Dutch
Disease, 1960–98; c. The Netherlands and Five
Countries of the EU, 1960–98; d. The Netherlands
and Four Traditional Primary Commodity Exporters,
1960–98 86
3.9 a. Greece, Cyprus, and Malta: A Tourism Dutch
Disease? b. Luxembourg, Hong Kong (China),
and Switzerland: A Financial Dutch Disease? 89
3.10 Argentina, Brazil, and Chile: Catching the Dutch
Disease? 91
3.11 a. Nordic Countries: Three Different Industrialization
Paths, 1960–98; b. Finland and Chile: An Anti-Dutch
Disease and a Dutch Disease Industrialization?
c. Finland: Changing Vertical Integration in
Timber-Based Exports, 1963–2000 94
3.12 a. NIE-2s: Manufacturing Employment and Income
Primary Commodity, 1960–98; b. NIE-1s: Manufacturing
Employment and Income Primary Commodity, 1960–98 97